Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Freeze Watch in effect from April 21, 01:00AM CDT until April 21, 09:00AM CDT
Monday- Sunny. High: 64-68
Monday Night- Mostly cloudy, with a possibility of rain. Low: 32-36
Tuesday- Cloudy, with a possibility of snow/rain. High: 38-42
Tuesday Night- Partly cloudy, clearing throughout the night. Low: 58-62
Wednesday- Partly cloudy, Frost AM. High: 48-52
Today mid-Missouri will experience rather pleasant weather before this week turns chilly. Southwesterly winds will contribute to a warm afternoon with the high reaching upper 60’s. As we move into tonight, a cold front will move into Missouri lowering temperatures into the mid to low 30’s. Tuesday morning as the precipitation moves in, we could see this start out in the form of rain. Temperatures will drop after the cold front moves past mid-Missouri, this will allow us to see a mixture of snow/rain between 4am-6am and it fully switches over to snow around 6am-8am. Snow will stick with us throughout the most part of the day. The majority of the snow will start to come to an end between 2pm-4pm. During this time temperatures could warm up just enough for mid-Missouri to see some rain showers. Total accumulations for snow could be around a dusting to up to 2 inches. The National Weather Service has issued a freeze watch Tuesday night into early Wednesday as we see unseasonable cold temperatures. By Wednesday, mid-Missouri will start to warm back up as we reach back into the lower 50’s and the majority of the snow accumulation we saw Tuesday will melt.
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This forecast was generated with the use of the 06z NAM model run. The current NAM model guidance is accurately depicting the location and moisture return for the upper-level trough entering the Great Plains region. The main focus for this forecast period will be precipitation for Tuesday morning switching to snow, and the dropping temperatures early this week.
Currently, a positively tilted upper-level trough is extended just west of Missouri located over much of the Great Plains region. The majority of Missouri is currently influenced by southwesterly flowing lower-level winds which will lead to increased temperatures for Monday out ahead of the approaching cold front. Due to the southwesterly flowing winds, the atmosphere above Central Missouri will remain dry allowing for clear sky conditions.
Highs for Monday afternoon will be in the upper 60’s thanks to the clear conditions aided by the southwesterly flowing warm winds. Winds will begin to switch out of the southwest to the west heading into the evening hours Monday night. With this change of winds, a lower level jet maximum begins to form over Central Missouri. Low-level moisture begins to subsequently enter Missouri leading to the development of lower-level clouds. The upper-level trough begins to take a southeastward plunge nearing the I-70 corridor late Monday night. Precipitation will start out as rain just past 08z Tuesday morning. As the cold front continues to push southeast, temperatures will continue to decrease leading to a rain and snow mixture becoming predominantly snow between 11-13z. Decent lower to mid levels of saturation in the atmosphere and temperatures just at freezing could lead to decently sized dendrites which could contribute to increased rates of snowfall mid-morning Tuesday. As temperatures begin to slightly increase towards the 40 degree mark, snow will switch back over to rain around 19z. Because of the warmer temperatures we will see on Monday, roadway temperatures will be pretty warm meaning we will not see accumulations Tuesday morning. At most, there could be some wet and possibly mild slush on roadways. Accumulations on elevated surfaces and grass will be between a dusting up to 2 inches. The majority of this snowfall will be caused by post-frontal stratiform snow. The accumulated snow will be short lived as temperatures will near back towards 40 degrees for the high temperature on Tuesday and switch back to rain. We begin to dry out early Tuesday evening and cloud cover will exit eastward.
Overnight temperatures will continue to fall without the aid of cloud cover bottoming out just under 30. We will be clear throughout Tuesday night. Winds begin to shift out of the north to westerly allowing for our temperatures to warm up slightly topping out at nearly 50 for Wednesday high.
The next area of concern for the upcoming forecasters will be the deepening upper-level trough that is currently over the Pacific just off the west coast. This next trough will be making its way east toward Missouri by Friday. With this upcoming upper-level trough, rainfall amounts will be the greatest area of concern.
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