Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Many Thanks to all of you who have visited this site over the past year. 

The students, students mentors, and professor are grateful for your patronage. In the Spring 2020
semester alone, we had well over 1000 unique visits to our forecast pages. In spite of a pandemic, 
MU students kept creating science-based forecasts , and you kept reading and using those products. 
Thanks again.

We will be back in the Fall of 2020...maybe even sooner. 

Stay healthy. Stay safe.


Forecasters: Waldorf and Statler
Issued:  6:25 a.m., May 19, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
In our absence, the old fogies who teach us suggest finding a forecast outlet
that you trust, and not simply using "that silly app that came with your phone."

Friday, May 8, 2020

Friday Night - Clear. Low:  32-36

Saturday - Partly cloudy. High: 58-62

Saturday Night - Mostly cloudy with light rain. Low: 44-48

Sunday -  Partly cloudy. High: 58-62

Monday - Partly cloudy. High:54-58

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:  Due to the cold front passage on Thursday, Friday night temperatures will be low, close to freezing. 
This will be the coldest it gets during our forecast period. As we move further away from the cold front passage 
and the sun begins to shine, temperature will begin to rise back up into the upper 50’s, possibly reaching the low 
60’s. Saturday night will be the only chance for rain during this forecast period, but only 0.3 inches is to be expected. 
After this, things will clear back up again, making the end to the weekend and beginning of the week quite peaceful.
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Savoy, Heaven
Issued:  5:00pm: May 8, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
WPC model diagnostics suggests GFS or NAM for this forecast period so we decided to go with 
GFS. We also used SREF plumes for average temperatures and precipitation amounts.

Currently, and for the rest of the forecast period, we remain under the upper level jet at 250mb, 
with west and northwest winds influencing our weather. A zonal flow pattern will be what we see 
until Monday when a shortwave trough moves over the region, we will be upstream of the trough 

At 500mb, on Saturday at 21Z we become under the influence of a shortwave trough which will 
be bringing high vorticity values to our area. This vorticity will dissipate and pick back up again 
throughout the whole state, around Sunday at 9Z when the base of this trough moves through 
the area. However, this is now long lived, these high vorticity values clear out by 12Z. During this 
time will be the best possible chance for rain, which we can see as we move down to the lower 

For the 700mb- Omega and RH maps, we noted that on Sunday 3Z-9Z, there are high RH values.   
Throughout Missouri on Monday, at different locations there are high RH values.  These were also 
considered in conjunction with vertical velocity.  It was noted that presently, 18Z on Friday, there 
is no vertical velocity. Sunday 0Z- 9Z however, we do see relatively high vertical velocities of 4-6 
microbars per second.   We consulted the GFS skew-T at these respective times and it was 
noted that at 0Z we have neither lift nor saturation, at 3Z we have a saturated environment but not 
at the surface indicative of clouds observed at 725 to 550mb level.  At 9Z, whilst there were UVM, 
there was not a saturated environment. Considering the SREF cumulative precipitation output, 
we did observe that there were 0.3 inches of expected precipitation.  

Precipitation should be in the form of rainfall.  This after reviewing the 850mb- temperature map 
which showed that whilst temperatures are reduced during our forecast period, they are above 
freezing.  To account for our colder temperatures currently, we note that the winds are coming in 
from our North.  Throughout the weekend, winds are also coming in from the NW.  


Thursday, May 7, 2020

Thursday Night - Rain. Low: 46-50

Friday - Possible rain early. Decreasing clouds. High: 54-60

Friday Night - Becoming clear. Low: 32-36

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High 58-62

Sunday - Mostly cloudy. High: 58-62

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

A cold front and low pressure system will bring rain all throughout the midwest tonight. Showers will persist into early tomorrow morning. After that, high pressure will set in and clouds will gradually decrease. However, strong northerly winds will bring cool air after the cold front passes early on Friday resulting in temperatures Friday night dropping substantially below typical May nights and even approaching freezing. When the winds have slowed and sunny weather returns on Saturday, temperatures will quickly rise into the high 50's and low 60's. There is a very small chance for some drizzle Saturday night. Otherwise, some clouds will return as a result of a low pressure system to the north on Sunday. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal. CL
Forecasters: Lieberman, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: May 07, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The WPC recommends a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. For this reason, we used these models as well as SREF plumes and the HRRR for short range precipitation monitoring. CL

At 250MB, a closed low is located over northern Ontario. A positive short wave trough also extends from Wyoming to North Dakota. A jet max is also located over Michigan, Lake Michigan, and northern Indiana. At 500MB, the shortwave trough is much deeper, indicating a surface low, and has substantial circulation associated therewith. At 700MB and 850MB, there is significant moisture surrounding the low pressure system up stream but dry air over the greater Missouri area currently above 850MB. Below, saturation is significant resulting in low cloud decks and overcast skies. This is confirmed by visual observation. CL

Tonight, the aforementioned low pressure system will track into Missouri. A cold front associated with it will bring showers in Columbia and convective cells to pop up to the south. 500MB vorticity shows significant circulation that strengthens as the system reaches Missouri. 700MB and 850MB moisture and UVM is equally substantial. The LLJ max will be located over northern Texas and Arkansas tonight, allowing for moisture to be advected in. Soundings from all models show significant support for showers through the night and into the early morning. SREF plumes support this with the mean QPF just below an inch. CAPE is almost certainly insufficient for thunderstorms.

A few hours after cold FROPA, when the rain has cleared out early on Friday, northerly gusts will reach high speeds moth at the surface and up to the mid levels. This will allow for CAA that will persist throughout the day. The effects of this will be shown overnight as mostly clear skies further allow for cooling and temperatures drop to near freezing.

Saturday, a long wave ridge will allow for high pressure to set in. Dry air from the north will be advected in as well. Limited moisture aloft and mostly clear skies allow for radiational heating to bring temperatures back to near average for early May. Saturday night, a shortwave trough embedded in the ridge will track north of Missouri into Iowa. A surface low associated with this system make precipitation possible. However, this will more than likely be limited to the north of Columbia. Soundings and SREF plumes show a small chance for trace precipitation--likely drizzle--but even that is unlikely. Otherwise, clouds will return on Sunday. These will be somewhat limited and likely low level. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Tuesday Night - Cloudy, Possible Rain. Low: 44-48

Wednesday - Cloudy Possible Rain. High: 60-64

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 40-44

Thursday - Cloudy, PM Rain. High 64-68

Friday - Mostly Sunny. High: 58-62

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

The cloudy skies that occurred this morning have moved out of the area and are leaving
Columbia with Partly Cloudy skies for this afternoon and temperatures 10-12 degrees
below average. Tonight, skies will begin to cloud back up again and there will be a slight
possibility of rain overnight. Those cloudy skies and the potential for rain will continue
into tomorrow as well with high temperatures still near 10 degrees below average.
Overnight tomorrow night, skies will begin to clear and there will be mostly sunny skies
before 12:00 pm on Thursday. For Thursday afternoon and early evening, skies will
begin to cloud back up and a possibility for rain will come back into the picture.
Skies will clear back out once again for Friday with high temperatures much cooler
than average along the lines of 12-15 degrees below average.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: May 05, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model preference suggests a blend of 06z GFS/12z ECMWF/and 12z NAM.
The 12z NAM and 12z ECMWF were used for this forecast due to the continuity
between the two of them being at the same time. SREF Plumes were used for
temperatures and precipitation amounts.

The main topics of interest for this forecast period are the well below average
temperatures being experienced and the potential for rain the next couple of days,
when that will occur and how much rain will fall.

250mb winds show Missouri in a zonal pattern for the next 24 hours, however, the
pattern begins to become more meridional with there being a northwest flow coming
out of southern Canada. This northwest flow will continue all the way until the end of
the week when it begins to flatten out and become more zonal once again. This
northwest flow is the driver for the below average temperatures being experienced.

500mb vorticity shows little in the way of atmospheric circulation this afternoon.
Late this evening and into early tomorrow morning however, the circulation begins
to pick back up as a small shortwave associated with the northwest flow long-wave
will make its way into the area. This will be an indication of a potential atmospheric
disturbance. Going into the next two days, there will be multiple shortwaves
embedded in the aforementioned northwest flow long-wave that will make their
way across the northern plains and into our area. With these shortwaves bring the
potential for rain with them.

700mb RH and UVM look to remain dry until this evening when the atmosphere
starts to become saturated again associated with the 500mb shortwaves. Along
with the shortwaves, the 700mb RH will not be totally saturated, but will reach
values of 70 to 80% along with UVM values reaching 2 to 4 ubar/s. The higher
values are located in the southwest portion of Missouri. Based on this, we can say
that rain can't be ruled out but the higher possibilities look to be off to the
southwest as well for tonight. The main rain maker will be this coming Thursday
evening. RH values will be reaching near 90% and UVM values will be reaching
as high as 20 ubar/s.

When looking at potential thunderstorms coming out of this, they look to be
minimal. This is due to there being a lack of low level support as 850mb winds
look to be minimal with winds no stronger than 20 knots. This lack of low level
support will hinder any chance of this rain to become anymore than just rain due
to their being a lack of moisture coming off of the Gulf of Mexico. With all this being
said, the rainfall totals look to be minimal for tonight into tomorrow along the lines
of 0.02 to 0.05 inches. Thursday looks to be the wettest day of the week with rainfall
totals to be around 0.5 inches.

Once late Thursday evening comes around, the skies will begin to clear out and
temperatures will be well below average along the lines of 10 to 15 degrees below
average. Skies will remain sunny for Friday with temperatures once again much
cooler than average again along the lines of 10 to 15 degrees below average.

Monday, May 4, 2020

Monday - Partly sunny morning. Cloudy ahead of thunderstorms 
this afternoon & evening. High: 66-70 

Monday Night - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms still 
likely before sunrise. Low: 48-52

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy and dry. High: 60-64

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 44-48

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 62-66

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

The Storm Prediction Center has put Mid-Missouri under a slight risk for severe weather 
today with the main threats being strong winds, small hail, and flash flooding. Clouds will 
fill the sky in the next few hours, and rain will begin after noon today and likely won’t exit 
until close to midnight tonight. There should be some dry time through the day, but 
thunderstorms are possible during this entire period. These storms are associated with 
a cold front that will cool us down a little bit tomorrow. Clouds will stick around as well, 
until late Tuesday. Northerly winds will start to dry us out into Tuesday night providing 
sunshine on Wednesday.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: May 4, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Today's forecast will be mainly focused on the showers and thunderstorms that will affect 
central Missouri today as a shortwave moves through the area. As guided by the WPC, 
we will be using a general model blend for the forecast gathering info from the NAM and GFS. 

Currently, it is 61°F and partly cloudy at Sanborn field on MU’s campus. Thunderstorms 
are affecting northwest Kansas and are moving east into Missouri. These thunderstorms 
are associated with a shortwave that is forecasted to move through Missouri this afternoon.
This wave, associated with a low to our northwest, will deepen as it moves east over the area. 

At 250 mb, winds are fairly zonal for the majority of the forecast period. However, we are 
located in the right entrance region of the jet max. This suggests divergence aloft and may 
provide some extra support for convergence at the surface today. Down near 700mb, vertical 
velocities values are significant as the wave passes this afternoon until Tuesday morning around 
09Z. The LLJ will be supplying moisture from the gulf for this system. The strongest surge of 
moisture is forecasted to occur around 18Z. That being said, we believe the strongest and 
possibly severe storms will occur this afternoon. Looking at soundings MUCAPE values range 
from 500-2000 J/kg with wind shear between 30-45kts. Also, as mentioned before, the SPC has 
us under a slight risk for today. In conclusion, we do expect elevated convection today with the 
biggest threat being straight line winds and hail.

After this fairly active weather pattern exits Mid-Missouri, calm conditions are expected throughout 
the rest of the forecast period. After FROPA this evening, CAA occurs over the state as winds 
shift from southerly to northerly. This, as well as clouds sticking around, will allow temperatures 
to only warm into the lower 60s tomorrow. As Tuesday progresses, those winds will dry us out 
and allow for sunshine to dominate Wednesday. Winds will be a little breezy behind this system, 
however, as the cyclone that will bring us convection today will sit just to our east tomorrow. 2-3 
isobars are forecasted to sit across the state, and winds could gust up to approximately 20-25 
mph behind this system. Winds will die down as the cyclone continues to move to our east by 

Friday, May 1, 2020

Friday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 56-60

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 80-84

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 60-64

Sunday -  Overcast with rain. High: 70-74

Monday - Overcast with evening thunderstorms. High: 72-76
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

The beginning of the weekend will start off nice with little cloud cover due to the lack of moisture, clouds 
will begin to develop that night leading into Sunday. This is due to a shift in winds causing moisture to 
increase as well as the passage of a cold front, dropping high temps from the mid 80’s to low 70’s. . 
Things begin to change on Sunday, when late day rain should be expected, bringing  in around 0.25 
inches. Clouds will remain through Sunday night into Monday. Thunderstorms are expected Monday 
evening, and should be monitored closely for severity changes.
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Savoy, Heaven
Issued:  5:00pm: May 1, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostics suggests a non UKMET model blend, with above average 
confidence so we decided to go with the 12Z GFS. SREF plumes were also referenced 
for temperature and precipitation averages. 

Starting off at 250 hPa, we see winds from the northwest for a majority of the forecast 
period with small shifts from west back to northwest. We will be under the influence
 of the jet max as well, with the jet core staying North of us until the next forecast period. 
Our flow remains zonal until Monday, when a ridge starts to develop as it moves through 
the state of Missouri.

As we move down to the 500 hPa level, we again noted mostly zonal flow with a short
wave on Saturday that quickly disappears back into the zonal flow. On Monday we become 
under the influence of a ridge, which was seen at the 250 hPa level. A deep low was noted 
off the coast of Northern California which should be watched, as it will most likely be 
influencing our weather later in the week. On Sunday at 12Z we noted high vertical velocity 
values, vorticity and saturation, which will be cause for rain. Another chance for rain will 
happen Monday evening when we have Thunderstorm possibilities, which will be discussed 
further down.  

For the 700 hPa Vertical velocity and RH we also take note of Sunday at 12Z where there 
were both regions of high vertical velocity and high RH values.  It should be noted that this 
existed the region relatively quickly.  Consulting the Skew-T at this time we note that there 
is a saturated layer from the 850- 700 hPa level and lift present.  The SREF model runs 
support this precipitation in the amount of approximately 0.25 inches. 

It should be noted that on Monday, from Skew-T analysis, there is possible thunderstorm
activity from Monday evening into Tuesday (Tuesday 0Z).  It was noted that the atmosphere 
is saturated from the surface to 1km above and there was lift as well.   There were significant 
MU CAPE whose numeric value was given by 1492 J/kg.  We also observed a -5 LI indicative
of large instability.  The hodograph was curved and the winds were veering winds whose value 
were not equal in the 0 -3 km level.  This coupled with significant SRH values of 409 m^2/s^2 
(for 1km layer above the ground) and 511m^2/s^2 (for 3km above the ground), indicates the 
possibility for severe weather. Future forecasters should monitor this low pressure system 
moving into our region.  The SREF places us in the vicinity of 0.5 inches of precipitation. 

From the  850 hPa temperature and wind speed.   To account for our warmer weather we 
are experiencing now, we see winds are blowing warm air from the SW into our region.   
We see a shift in winds from SW to NW as a cold front is coming in on Saturday at 12Z.  
On Sunday at 12Z, we see a deformation zone in which winds are being stretched in different 
directions in Central Missouri.  At this time there is colder air in Northern Missouri and warmer
air in Southern Missouri.  Hence indicating there is a thermal gradient associated with this 
deformation zone.