Monday - Partly sunny morning. Cloudy ahead of thunderstorms
this afternoon & evening. High: 66-70
Monday Night - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms still
likely before sunrise. Low: 48-52
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy and dry. High: 60-64
Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 44-48
Wednesday - Sunny. High: 62-66
Discussion:
The Storm Prediction Center has put Mid-Missouri under a slight risk for severe weather
today with the main threats being strong winds, small hail, and flash flooding. Clouds will
fill the sky in the next few hours, and rain will begin after noon today and likely won’t exit
until close to midnight tonight. There should be some dry time through the day, but
thunderstorms are possible during this entire period. These storms are associated with
a cold front that will cool us down a little bit tomorrow. Clouds will stick around as well,
until late Tuesday. Northerly winds will start to dry us out into Tuesday night providing
sunshine on Wednesday.
today with the main threats being strong winds, small hail, and flash flooding. Clouds will
fill the sky in the next few hours, and rain will begin after noon today and likely won’t exit
until close to midnight tonight. There should be some dry time through the day, but
thunderstorms are possible during this entire period. These storms are associated with
a cold front that will cool us down a little bit tomorrow. Clouds will stick around as well,
until late Tuesday. Northerly winds will start to dry us out into Tuesday night providing
sunshine on Wednesday.
===========================================================================================
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued: 10:00am: May 4, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Today's forecast will be mainly focused on the showers and thunderstorms that will affect
central Missouri today as a shortwave moves through the area. As guided by the WPC,
we will be using a general model blend for the forecast gathering info from the NAM and GFS.
central Missouri today as a shortwave moves through the area. As guided by the WPC,
we will be using a general model blend for the forecast gathering info from the NAM and GFS.
Currently, it is 61°F and partly cloudy at Sanborn field on MU’s campus. Thunderstorms
are affecting northwest Kansas and are moving east into Missouri. These thunderstorms
are associated with a shortwave that is forecasted to move through Missouri this afternoon.
This wave, associated with a low to our northwest, will deepen as it moves east over the area.
are affecting northwest Kansas and are moving east into Missouri. These thunderstorms
are associated with a shortwave that is forecasted to move through Missouri this afternoon.
This wave, associated with a low to our northwest, will deepen as it moves east over the area.
At 250 mb, winds are fairly zonal for the majority of the forecast period. However, we are
located in the right entrance region of the jet max. This suggests divergence aloft and may
provide some extra support for convergence at the surface today. Down near 700mb, vertical
velocities values are significant as the wave passes this afternoon until Tuesday morning around
09Z. The LLJ will be supplying moisture from the gulf for this system. The strongest surge of
moisture is forecasted to occur around 18Z. That being said, we believe the strongest and
possibly severe storms will occur this afternoon. Looking at soundings MUCAPE values range
from 500-2000 J/kg with wind shear between 30-45kts. Also, as mentioned before, the SPC has
us under a slight risk for today. In conclusion, we do expect elevated convection today with the
biggest threat being straight line winds and hail.
located in the right entrance region of the jet max. This suggests divergence aloft and may
provide some extra support for convergence at the surface today. Down near 700mb, vertical
velocities values are significant as the wave passes this afternoon until Tuesday morning around
09Z. The LLJ will be supplying moisture from the gulf for this system. The strongest surge of
moisture is forecasted to occur around 18Z. That being said, we believe the strongest and
possibly severe storms will occur this afternoon. Looking at soundings MUCAPE values range
from 500-2000 J/kg with wind shear between 30-45kts. Also, as mentioned before, the SPC has
us under a slight risk for today. In conclusion, we do expect elevated convection today with the
biggest threat being straight line winds and hail.
After this fairly active weather pattern exits Mid-Missouri, calm conditions are expected throughout
the rest of the forecast period. After FROPA this evening, CAA occurs over the state as winds
shift from southerly to northerly. This, as well as clouds sticking around, will allow temperatures
to only warm into the lower 60s tomorrow. As Tuesday progresses, those winds will dry us out
and allow for sunshine to dominate Wednesday. Winds will be a little breezy behind this system,
however, as the cyclone that will bring us convection today will sit just to our east tomorrow. 2-3
isobars are forecasted to sit across the state, and winds could gust up to approximately 20-25
mph behind this system. Winds will die down as the cyclone continues to move to our east by
Wednesday.
the rest of the forecast period. After FROPA this evening, CAA occurs over the state as winds
shift from southerly to northerly. This, as well as clouds sticking around, will allow temperatures
to only warm into the lower 60s tomorrow. As Tuesday progresses, those winds will dry us out
and allow for sunshine to dominate Wednesday. Winds will be a little breezy behind this system,
however, as the cyclone that will bring us convection today will sit just to our east tomorrow. 2-3
isobars are forecasted to sit across the state, and winds could gust up to approximately 20-25
mph behind this system. Winds will die down as the cyclone continues to move to our east by
Wednesday.
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