Friday, October 15, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Friday Night:
Becoming mostly clear. Low: 34



Saturday:
Clear sky. High: 65

Saturday Night:
Clear. Low: 39           

Sunday:
Clear and warmer. High: 70 
  
 
 
Sunday Night:  Clear Low: 46
 
  
 
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Discussion:  

Football fans will be in for a nice game as calm autumn weather rolls in over the weekend. A high pressure system should remove the clouds that have been lingering over mid-Missouri for the last several days. That said, the low temperature should dip pretty low on Friday night, but not quite freezing. The remainder of the weekend will remain clear with temperatures on the rise through Sunday.

-Millsap

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Forecasters: Millsap, Ethridge, Travis

Date Issued: 10/15/21  5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

The NAM was the primary model used for this forecast. NAM had better consensus on the temperatures for Friday when viewing the SREF plumes, while the GFS had some wild variability in temperature for Friday on the GFES ensemble model. The main focus of this forecast was the low temperature for Friday night. Freezing temperatures, however, are not expected for this forecast period.

At the 250-mb level, there is a weak jet streak influencing the Midwest. There is an amplified trough over Missouri that is developing a positive tilt as it moves to the east, indicating that the low pressure system over the region is weakening.

At the 500-mb level, there is strong widespread circulation over Missouri for Friday that moves out of the region on Saturday. With the weakening system over the region, the effects of this circulation are likely to be minimal. The trough associated with this surge of vorticity moves out Saturday and is replaced by a large ridge over the area for the remainder of the weekend.

At the 700-mb level, the moisture over the region becomes sparse overnight and drier air replaces it. The NAM shows this moisture staying mainly to the north and east. This can be attributed to a high pressure system moving in from the west, pushing the pockets of moist air out of the area of interest.

At the 850-mb level, a low pressure system to the north will generate an area of CAA that will bring the temperature on Friday night noticeably lower. As the low pressure system moves northeast and is replaced by high pressure, the temperatures begin to warm again. That said, the same high pressure system's anticyclonic pattern will prevent southerly warm air from reaching mid-Missouri.

Using the NAM model soundings for 12Z, decreasing levels of saturation at the mid-altitudes show cloud cover moving out of the area. For Saturday, WAA was indicated by the wind barbs showing a veering wind profile.

-Ethridge, Millsap

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Friday:
Cloudy with isolated showers. High: 59

Friday Night:
Clouds exiting. Low: 34



Saturday:
Clear sky. High: 65


Saturday Night:
Clear. Low: 35            

Sunday:
Clear and warmer. High: 70

 
 
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Discussion: 

    Friday will start off cloudy with scattered rain as a cold front exits to the southeast. Trace amounts are expected for central Missouri today with showers ending near sundown. Clouds move out overnight, allowing temperatures to dip to the lowest point so far this season in the 30s! Saturday will be a seasonal gameday with clear skies and a high of 65. A ridge moving in over the weekend will keep clear skies around and usher in another warming trend by Sunday.

 - Splater

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Forecasters: Schneringer, Splater, Bongard

Date Issued: 10/15/21  10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  

     The NAM was the model primarily used in this forecast. This decision was made based on its better handling of current conditions than the GFS. Both models displayed relative consensus on current conditions aloft, however the NAM handled the morning low temperatures better than the GFS.

    At the 250-mb level, Missouri is positioned directly under a moderate jet stream. This jet is associated with a large trough currently situated over the High Plains extending southward through parts of northern Texas. This trough will move over Missouri and the forecast area through the next 24 hours, and the axis will exit the region by 20Z on Saturday. Divergence associated with the jet stream will pass over the region Friday afternoon between 15Z and 22Z. As the weekend progresses, the trough will move out of the forecast region, and the upper levels will be dominated by a large ridge pattern that will become situated around 09Z Sunday morning.

    The 500-mb level sees large vorticity and relative humidity values between 20Z and 00Z Friday afternoon move over Boone County. These features, along with the divergence aloft at the 250-mb seem to indicate potential showers during this time period. After this period, moisture clears out at this level as the ridge begins to move in for the rest of the forecast period.

    At the 700-mb level, moderate-to-large amounts of moisture are present Friday afternoon beginning at 20Z, before drying out by 01Z Saturday. Negative Omega values at that time indicates any rain that occurs Friday afternoon will occur between the 21Z-00Z time frame. The ridge moving into the region means low values of RH will persist through the rest of the weekend, bringing clear skies with it.

  At the 850-mb level, moisture again peaks around 22Z Friday before drying out later that night. Somewhat patchy amounts of RH as opposed to uniform blanketing lends itself to spotty showers as opposed to consistent rain Friday afternoon. Ridging this weekend lends itself to CAA at this level Saturday.

 

-Schneringer

Thursday, October 14, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Thursday Night:
Cloudy with isolated showers. Low: 58

Friday:
Cloudy with off and on showers, temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 58


Friday Night:
Decreasing clouds. Low: 41


Saturday:
Clear sky. High: 62


Saturday Night:
Clear. Low: 40
 
 
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Discussion: 

    Thursday evening, temperatures decrease with increasing clouds. Thursday night will see isolated light showers. Clouds and light rain showers will continue into Friday and throughout the day. A cold front will move through bringing colder Fall-like temperatures with a high of 58 in the morning. Temperatures will continue to fall during the day. Clouds will clear near midnight Friday. Saturday will be a sunny day, perfect for a Fall Football Game Day with temperatures reaching a high of 62. The sky will remain clear into the evening.

 - Heienickle

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 10/14/21  5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

     For this forecast the NAM was the primary model used. This was chosen by looking at the Model Output Statistics for both the NAM and GFS, as well as comparing the models to the surface conditions at 21Z. Although both models had a close consensus on the current conditions, the NAM performed slightly better than the GFS. SREF & GEFS plumes were used in conjunction with the NAM to assess temperatures. Soundings from the NAM were used for cloud cover/precipitation chances.

    At the 250-mb level, a large trough was located over the central US with Missouri at the right edge. This trough is slow to traverse across Missouri, only moving east of the area by 00Z Sunday. Between 15Z and 21Z on Friday, small areas of divergence moves overhead. While the trough is overhead, a jet streak persists.

    At the 500-mb level, vorticity associated with the trough stays to the west until around 12Z on Friday. The strongest circulations move through central Missouri between 12Z on Friday and 15Z on Saturday. Vorticity clears the area by 21Z Saturday as the aforementioned trough moves to the east. Future forecasters should monitor the ridge which follows the exiting trough.

    At the 700-mb level, higher amounts of Relative Humidity persist over Mid-Missouri until 02Z on Saturday. However, the higher amounts are not uniform, but instead patchy as the trough continues to move overhead. Soundings from the NAM support the areas of patchy clouds/rainfall. With CAPE values near 0, thunderstorms do not appear likely.

    At the 850-mb level, a stationary front evident by the wind change over Missouri slowly moves out of the area as the trough enters the region. A cold front then moves through on Friday, shifting winds to the northwest, which will remain consistent through the night on Friday. Temperatures will fall throughout the day Friday, meaning our high temperature will likely be hit sometime in the morning. Temperatures will remain cooler than average into Saturday. 

    Conditions seen at the upper levels are reflected at the surface. Winds may increase to 15kt with the passage of the front. 

-Meyer

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field





 Thursday:
Becoming partly sunny. High: 70

Thursday Night: 
Partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness and showers developing late. Low: 61



Friday: Periods of scattered showers throughout the day. High: 58

 

Friday Night:
Decreasing cloudiness, late. Low: 41


 Saturday:
Mostly sunny. High: 66
 
 
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Discussion: 

    This week's cooler, rainy, pattern will continue into at least the first half of our weekend. The departure of rain early Thursday morning will slowly lead to partly sunny skies as clouds slowly move out by the mid-afternoon. A partly sunny evening will ensue, though by the later overnight hours clouds are expected to build back in and bring showers along with them. The showers, part of a front that will shift winds from the south to the north, will not only bring scattered showers throughout the day but also lower temperatures considerably, capping our highs in the upper 50s. Some of the chillier weather Missouri has seen this fall, conditions will be perfect breaking out hoodies and jackets. As clouds and rain depart once again Friday night, moisture will decrease substantially and bring us into the lower 40s for a cold night in the region. Saturday will be a marked change from the wetness seen over the week, and sunshine poking through the clouds will help warm us up a little bit more into the middle 60s.  

 

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Forecasters: Duff, Mcdonald, Aldrich

Date Issued: 10/14/21  10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  

     For this forecast the 06z model run of the GFS was chosen. The GFS performed well when modeled temperatures were compared to observed temperatures. Both the GFS and the NAM modeled vorticity at 500-mb fairly well, but the GFS did a better job at modeling higher values for Mid-Missouri which is expected because of our position on the southeast side of the approaching trough. 

At the 250-mb level plots of heights, winds, and divergence, show an upper level trough to the west with a low centered over the Northern Plains. By 12z Friday the trough moves east and higher values of divergence intensify. The jet streak over the Middle Mississippi River Valley, begins to strengthen as it rounds the base of the trough. As the trough moves out of the region by 00z Saturday, any upper level divergence is gone and the jet streak weakens. 

At 500mb, heights and vorticity show increasing vorticity starting 00z Friday through 12z Saturday. The bands of vorticity increase due to a trough moving southeast across Mid- Missouri on Friday. By 15z Saturday vorticity values lower as the trough moves away from the forecast area and a ridge builds into southwestern United States. 

At 700-mb, heights, vertical velocity, and relative humidity, show a river of moisture originating in Southeast Texas and the Gulf of Mexico moving to northeast. The moisture moves out of the region for most of the day on Thursday, but relative humidity begins to increase again by 12z Friday. As the trough approaches the central United States, relative humidity will increase throughout the day on Friday indicating cloud cover and the potential for precipitation. Along with the moisture, vertical velocity also increases throughout the early morning hours of Friday, with higher values continuing until 03z Saturday. At this time, vertical velocity starts to decrease because the trough moves east out of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Less moisture and activity at the 700-mb level is expected on Saturday indicating a clearer sky and drier weather. 

At 850-mb, heights, winds, and temperature show southwesterly flow until 12z Friday. At this time the winds will shift to the NW which is associated to the passage of a front and the incoming upper level trough. The northernly winds and potential precipitation will keep temperatures cooler on Friday and into Saturday.  

 Future forecasters should pay attention to the exiting trough. 

 

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field






Wednesday Night: 
Rain overnight. Low: 62

 


Thursday: 
Cloudy with afternoon showers. High: 70




Thursday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 61


 

Friday:
Overcast with a slight chance of afternoon showers.
High: 62
 
 
 

Friday Night:
Clearing through the night. Low: 42
 
 
 
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Discussion: 

    Mid-Missouri has a rainy and cloudy week to look forward to as fall weather sets in. As moisture is brought in by southwesterly winds, Wednesday's rain will continue through the night leaving Thursday overcast with afternoon showers. Thursday night will see the beginning of our falling temperatures with a wind shift to the northwest. Friday brings a slight chance of afternoon showers as an approaching low pressure system brings additional moisture into the area. Temperatures continue to drop through Friday night reaching into the low 40s. Total rainfall for the rest of this week is expected to be approximately 1.25". 

 

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Forecasters: McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran

Date Issued: 10/13/21  5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

     For this forecast, the 12Z run of the GFS20 was chosen. The pressure contours of the NAM and the GFS surface maps looked similar to the 15Z surface map produced by the NWS. However, the GFS performed better than the NAM when modeled surface temperatures were compared to the current temperatures. GFS soundings were used for sky conditions and GEFS plumes were used for temperatures and QPF values. 

    At 250 mb, heights, winds, and divergence show upper-level divergence over our area brought in by the trough over the Four Corners region at 4Z Thursday. This positively-tilted trough will continue to move through Mid-Missouri during the rest of our forecast period. The jet stream continues to strengthen over the Central US through the rest of the week. 

    At 500 mb, heights and vorticity show increasing vorticity from Wednesday night into late Thursday morning. We can see circulation building again from 9Z Friday over Mid-Missouri reaching a vort max at 8Z Saturday. A small area of increasing vorticity moves through our area about 12Z Saturday. These bands are brought in with the trough moving through the Central US. These areas of vorticity will aide in cloud development throughout the forecasting period.

     At 700 mb, heights, vertical velocity, and relative humidity show a steady line of moisture moving into our area from the SW. This line of moisture will gradually move NE, eventually joining with saturation associated with the previously discussed upper-level trough. This moisture will leave our area at the end of our forecasting period. 

    At 850 mb, heights, winds, and temperature show continuous southwesterly flow through 21Z Friday. At this time, we will see a sharp shift in the winds to the NW. This coincides with strong CAA and a cold front as seen in the MSLP and 1000-500 mb thickness plots. This all leads to a decrease in temperatures throughout Friday and into Saturday. 

    GFS soundings show no indications of severe weather with no significant CAPE or LI values. Columns of saturation which will lead to cloud cover and periodic showers for the rest of the week. Rainfalls totals are expected to be about 1.25" for the forecasting period based on the GEFS QPF plumes.

 Future forecasters should pay attention to the exiting trough. 

 


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Wednesday:
Overcast. Rain beginning late morning. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High: 74



Wednesday Night:
Showers overnight.  Low: 60
 


Thursday:
Rain in the morning and early afternoon. High: 70



Thursday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 59 
 
 

Friday:
Overcast. High: 67
 
 
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Discussion: 

    It will be a good idea to keep that umbrella handy for the next few days as a cold front brings more rain to Missouri. Rain will begin late Wednesday morning and continue off and on into the afternoon. These showers will not be severe, but there could be some rumbles of thunder along with a flash or two of lightning. Showers continue into the evening and overnight with increasing rainfall intensity bringing moderate downpours at times. Again, nothing severe but the chance for thunder and lightning are not ruled out. From there, a cool down begins Thursday into the weekend. Thursday will be slightly cooler with a chance for rain in the morning and mid to late afternoon, but dry during mid-day. Showers taper off Thursday night into Friday morning where there will be a dry end to the work week and temperatures will start feeling more like fall. Rainfall accumulation through Friday looks to be in the range of 1.5 to 2 inches -- a quality late week soaking.

 

-Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 10/13/21  10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  

    For this forecast, the 06Z run of the NAM40 was chosen. Both the NAM and the GFS performed similarly when locating the area of low pressure to the northwest, but the NAM was decided upon due to better modeled surface temperatures.

    At 250-mb, the jet stream between the upper-level trough to the west and the upper-level ridge to the east begins to move into Missouri throughout the day and into the evening on Wednesday. The strongest portion of this jet will be seen over NW Missouri, although our forecast area will also fall under its influence today. In the overnight hours on Wednesday, the jet begins to move northward. The upper-level trough seen off to the west will slowly move eastward over the next several days before arriving Friday evening.

    The 500-mb vorticity plot indicates that stronger vorticity moving in from the southwest will be located over the forecast area later Wednesday afternoon before dissipating once again. These greater vorticity levels could help support the development of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. By Wednesday night, vorticity builds back up, with vorticity above the area around 09Z. The vorticity will maintain its magnitude until 18Z Thursday. The NAM indicates that this vorticity is likely to return by Friday afternoon.

     At 700-mb, moisture is prevalent. Relative humidity values above the forecast area remain consistently above 90%, occasionally exceeding 95%. This trend extends to the end of the forecast period. Upward vertical velocity is expected throughout the day on Wednesday before downward motion is to be seen in the overnight hours. Vertical velocity becomes neutral overnight.

    The 850-mb level of the atmosphere is also expected to be moist throughout the forecast period, with relative humidity percentages nearly identical to those indicated in the 700-mb discussion. For this reason, clouds and rainfall are the main focus of this forecast. No significant warm air advection or cold air advection was identified at this level. The area of low pressure first seen over Nebraska begins to move north throughout the day on Wednesday, crossing into Canada by midnight. By Friday, a positively-tilted trough will have reached mid-Missouri.

    The NAM surface-level model suggested that much cooler temperatures are to be expected as the week goes on. However, these temperature drops were extremely significant. While cooler temperatures are anticipated, it is highly unlikely that the temperatures will fall so far as to be 20 degrees lower than previously forecasted as the cold front is not expected to pass through the area until Thursday afternoon.

    Severe weather is not expected with the weather the region will be experiencing. MUCAPE values hit a maximum around 780 J/Kg around 18Z today, before falling to 200 J/Kg at 21Z. Low MUCAPE is expected before hitting zero towards the end of the forecast period. K-values remained in the 30s for Wednesday and Thursday, indicating rain may be heavy at times. 

    Future forecasters should further examine rainfall totals associated with the system that will be affecting the area tonight into tomorrow.


- Macko

Tuesday, October 12, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Tuesday Night:
Cloudy. Thunderstorms after 3 a.m. Low: 62



Wednesday:
Overcast. Rain in the morning. Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High: 77
 


Wednesday Night:
Overcast. Rain throughout the night, scattered thunderstorms between 1-4 a.m. Low: 62


Thursday:
Cloudy. Rain in the early morning. Conditions begin to clear around noon, scattered showers beginning around 3 p.m. High: 70 
 

Thursday Night:
Cloudy. Light rain, with possible thunderstorms around 1 a.m. Low: 60
 
 
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Discussion: 

    There's a few rainy days coming to Missouri. Thunderstorms will begin Tuesday night, around 3am, and cloudy skies will stick around throughout the forecast period. Wednesday begins with rain in the morning, and then scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. This will be the warmest day in the forecast period, with a high of 77 degrees. In the evening, rain continues, and around the hours of 1-4am, more scattered thunderstorms return. Thursday sees a cooler high temperature of 70 degrees. Rain continues into Thursday morning, but there is a bit of a break from all the precipitation from the late morning until the afternoon. From there, scattered showers will turn to light rain in the evening, with a potential for more thunderstorms in the night. Nighttime low temperatures will stay in the low 60s. 

- VanUnnik, Watts

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Watts, Orr

Date Issued: 10/12/21  06:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

    For this busy forecast, the 12Z run of the GFS was chosen. When compared to the NAM, the GFS had better initial conditions and more accurate placement of the lows over both the Great Lakes and Colorado. SREF and GEFS plumes were used to aid in forecasting temperatures and rainfall amounts, and GFS soundings were used to forecast storm potential.

    At 250-mb, Missouri remains under the influence of the jet streak for the majority of the forecast period. Mid-Missouri is under the right exit region of the upper-level jet Tuesday evening, but it moves out by 09Z Wednesday. At this time, high amounts of divergence move into the region. Abundant divergence remains out of the area until 06Z Thursday when Missouri falls under the influence of the right entrance region of the jet streak. This moves out by 18Z Thursday, and divergence remains out of the region for the remainder of the forecast period. 

    At 500-mb, strong vorticity associated with the low pressure system over Colorado begins making its way eastward. Circulations move through Missouri 09Z Wednesday, and are gone by 21Z. Another "wave" of vorticity moves through Missouri around 09Z Thursday, providing another chance for storm development. Abundant circulations remain out of Mid-Missouri for the rest of the forecast period. A trough with strong amounts of vorticity develops in the west around 00Z Friday, and future forecasters should watch for its development.

     700-mb plots show the abundant moisture that dominates the region over the next few days. High RH values move into Mid-Missouri by 09Z Wednesday when Missouri is in the warm sector of the cyclone over Colorado/Nebraska. A steady flow of moisture remains in the region throughout Wednesday until a brief break Thursday at 15Z. This break is short lived as high RH values return by Friday at 03Z.

    850-mb plots show the low pressure system in the west in better form. As the low moves northeastward, a cold front passes over Missouri around 18Z Wednesday. Up until this point, warm and moist air will be pushed into Missouri. A strong LLJ pushes in moisture from the Gulf even after FROPA, and continues to do so until the approach of a trough 12Z Friday. 

    At the surface level, solenoids are seen over Missouri around 09Z Wednesday, a sign of WAA. However, the WAA is short-lived as the cold front passes over Mid-Missouri 18Z Wednesday. Soon after moving through the region, this front stalls, becoming a stationary front over southeastern Missouri. The front remains in that spot until the approaching trough "pushes" it out of Missouri by 15Z Friday. 

    The most favorable opportunities for storms are Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon/evening. GFS soundings of Tuesday night's storms show MUCAPE of up to 800 J/kg, K Index and TT values favorable for moderate convection potential, and SRH and BRN Shear values favorable for producing strong thunderstorms. The potential for severe storms Tuesday night after midnight should not be ruled out. As for Wednesday, MUCAPE values of up to 850 J/kg are seen around 21Z. This CAPE, accompanied by negative Omega values, TT and K Index values favorable for convection, and 0-1 km and 0-3 km SRH values favorable for strong storm development. Again, severe storms cannot be ruled out. PW values for these events remain in the 1.20" to 1.70" range, so higher amounts of rain around 1" are expected. 

-Orr

Monday, October 11, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Monday Night:
Becoming clear. Low: 52

Tuesday:
Becoming partly cloudy. High: 75


Tuesday Night:
Cloudy. Showers. Low: 60 
 

Wednesday:
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with possible thunderstorms. High: 74
  

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Lingering showers throughout the night. Low: 64
 
 
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Discussion: 

 After scattered showers and temperatures cooled off earlier today, conditions are starting to dry up now that the low pressure system is moving northeast out of Mid-Missouri. Tonight's clouds will continue to to push out of the Mid-Missouri region and become clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the low 50s. Tuesday temperatures will reach into the mid 70s with skies becoming partly cloudy with an increasing chance for scattered showers overnight. Temperatures overnight Tuesday will drop into the low 60s and remain partly cloudy Wednesday morning. The chance for showers returns with the possibility of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday evening lingering showers will stay in the Mid-Missouri then becoming partly cloudy with lows in the mid 60s.

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Forecasters: Gromada, Alexander, Gotsch

Date Issued: 10/11/21  5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

For this current forecast period, analyzing the GFS and NAM, the GFS seems to be handle the atmosphere better than the NAM overall. The NAM does seem to have a better grip on the moisture in the mid levels, but is placing the current low pressure system farther northwest than it currently is. With this in mind, we chose the 12z GFS for 11 October, but we are keeping in mind that a mid-level moisture offset needs to be applied.


The negatively tilted upper-level low pressure system that caused severe weather Sunday evening is leaving the area Monday night, taking the clouds with it. The jet stream will begin weakening as it moves farther northeast tonight and into Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, upper level clouds are expected to enter the area. 

 

More moisture is expected to move into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday night with the passage of a warm front. This frontal passage is expected to keep temperatures from falling too much and to cause showers overnight. Precipitation values are expected to be around .4 of an inch. As the sun rises, the jet stream will position itself over Western-Mid-Missouri and place the right exit region over Columbia as another negatively tilted new low pressure system pushes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the low pressure system enters the area, the low level jet also picks up and will help advect more moisture into the system. This will be enough moisture to cause up to .5 inch of precipitation by Wednesday evening when a cold front moves through Missouri. Lingering showers are expected to persist through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. CAPE values are not expected to exceed 500J/kg, and that will be on Wednesday afternoon. 


The low on Wednesday night could drop to the mid 50s if the cold front moves quicker than the GFS is currently predicting.


The next forecasters should be monitoring another incoming low pressure system set to bring increased probabilities of showers and storms Thursday night into Friday.

-Alexander