Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Clouds increasing tonight to partly cloudy. Low: 48
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High: 72
Tuesday Night: Nearly overcast. Low: 54
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. High: 72
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 45
Discussion:
Over the past few days, the sky has remained clear and the temperatures remained closer to seasonal averages. Monday night should see low temperatures in the upper 40s and clouds moving into the area. Tuesday is shaping up to be partly sunny and a high of 72. Tuesday night will have more clouds keeping the low temperature in the mid 50s. During the day on Wednesday, a cold front will be pushing through the area. This front will be due to a low pressure system moving over southern Iowa. The high temperature is expected to be 72 and there is a possibility of isolated showers that may occur in the afternoon hours. Wednesday night will be cloudy for majority of the night and the low temperature is expected to be in the mid 40s.
-Alexander
====================================================================
Forecasters: Alexander, Gromada, Gotsch
Date Issued: 10/18/21 05:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
For this current forecast period, the NAM handled the low pressure system, coming from the Rockies, and temperatures better than the GFS. The GFS was leaning towards warmer temperatures with about a four degree bias. With the NAM showing the center of the low pressure system just north in central and northern Iowa, a cold front will pass through Mid-Missouri Wednesday bringing the possibility for showers.
250mb: Monday night, Mid-Missouri is under the south side of a strong upper level-ridge which moves out Tuesday while a weaker ridge will set in. A trough will settle in after the ridge pushes east with a low pressure system over the north central plains. The trough pushes in from the west Wednesday morning bringing cooler temperatures. As the trough pushes out, a weak jet streak will form over the I-70 corridor in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This jet streaks axis moves along I-70 into Wednesday night.
500mb: The ridge seen at the 250mb level is still prominent at the 500mb level. Around 2Z Monday, there is a low amount of vorticity at this level, but does not seem to affect the chance of precipitation for tonight. Headed into Tuesday night, the ridge remains over Mid-Missouri until the low pressure system pushes the ridge east. The center of the low is noticeably more south compared the the upper 250mb level. As the trough moves in on Wednesday night at 18Z, vorticity increases but a majority of the vorticty stays in central Iowa.
700mb: Relative humidity increases at dawn early Tuesday morning and persists into Wednesday. As the low pressure system moves into Mid-Missouri on Wednesday, relative humidity increases from the Gulf of Mexico, but cuts off as winds switch with the passing of the cold front.
850mb: Dew points on Tuesday increases around midday and near dawn on Tuesday night as the cold pushes through. This is when the possibility of showers will increase. There is a moisture break at 21Z on Wednesday night which is when Mid-Missouri will most likely see a stop to precipitation.
Surface: After the low pressure system moves out of the mid-Missouri region, winds will be veering from the south to the northwest. Winds are relatively light and calm coming from the south for the remainder of Wednesday night. On Wednesday rainfall is expected around 18Z continuing until after 00Z, amounts are expected to range from 0.06 to 0.24 inches.
-Gromada
No comments:
Post a Comment