Friday, October 22, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 



Friday:
Mostly cloudy. High: 65

 


Friday
Night: Partly cloudy. High: 63



Saturday:
Mostly cloudy. Low: 51



Saturday Night:
Cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High: 65

 


Sunday:
Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Low: 58
 
  
 
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Discussion:  

 Slightly warmer conditions for Columbia today as the area looks towards a weekend with some active weather. This evening and tonight are slated to be decent weather with a mild high temperature. Cloudy conditions will persist Saturday, along with continued seasonably mild temperatures and scattered showers in the afternoon as the warm front approaches. This scattered precipitation will persist through Saturday evening as the front passes through the area. Sunday will feature warmer temperatures under mostly cloudy skies ahead of the cold front approaching mid-Missouri. Cold front passage Sunday afternoon will bring thunderstorms, some potentially severe, through our area beginning mid afternoon and continuing into the evening. Rainfall totals around 0.5” possible.

 -Schneringer

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Forecasters: Splater, Schneringer, Bongard

Date Issued: 10/22/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  
 

The 06Z NAM was utilized for this forecast; while it had similar initial conditions to other models, confidence in the NAM is greater because of its handle on the weather systems forecasted for the weekend. Missouri will be in for a soggy fall weekend as low pressure meanders across the central U.S.

For Friday, the 250 mb map shows a stubborn low over eastern Canada which will hold its position through Saturday. A ridge will propagate across the area by 18Z on Saturday, ushering in minimal divergence aloft. Additionally, a jet streak will build to the northeast overnight, reaching a peak near 00Z Saturday and moving eastward before daybreak.

The jet will be able to interact with some moisture seen at the 700 mb level on Friday evening, though drier air below will likely prevent precipitation on Friday. Relative humidity increases drastically by 06Z Saturday, though, as a warm front and its associated low pressure approach the area. Wind shifts suggest fropa near 21Z on Saturday, placing central Missouri in the warm sector of the low pressure system by early evening. Vorticity will increase as this front passes, though the most intense circulation lies to our south. Future forecasters will want to watch for changes in the placement of this energy in later runs and how it may bolster precipitation on Saturday.

The low will migrate eastward on Sunday, pushing a cold front through the area by 21Z. Relative humidity values will remain high from Saturday through frontal passage. High areas of vorticity will also be rounding the trough heading into Sunday. Sounding data gives some confidence in heavy rainfall for Sunday with the K-index at 25. CIN will cap the atmosphere early Sunday morning but is expected to diminish quickly throughout the day. CAPE values near 2000 J/kg and a Total-Totals Index in the low 50s preceding the front is supportive of potentially convective storms on Sunday. A Lifted Index value of -6 further enhances the risk for strong to severe storms in the afternoon. Also, the SPC has issued a Day 3 Enhanced risk for nearly all of Missouri on Sunday. Forecasters will want to heavily monitor this system for continuity with severe conditions moving forward.

-Splater

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