Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: Clouds with showers. Low: 47
Friday: Showers throughout the day. High: 50
Friday Night: Scattered showers. Low: 44
Saturday: Clouds in the morning, sunny in the afternoon. High: 59
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 43
Discussion:
Keep your rain jacket or umbrellas handy as showers will continue over the next two days. Thursday night will see temperatures in the upper 40s with overcast conditions. Friday, there is an increased chance of rain in the morning, with a chance for a rumble of thunder. No severe weather is expected. The chance for light showers will slowly decline throughout the day. Overcast conditions will persist as Columbia sees colder temperatures and winds, as a result of the low pressure system moving to the East. Friday night the temperature will fall to the low 40s. Saturday will be the first clear day, with no expected rain, bringing sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures will rise to upper 50s, allowing for clear conditions.
- Heienickle
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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr
Date Issued: 10/28/21 5:00PM CST
Technical discussion:
For this forecast, the 12Z run of the GFS was chosen over the NAM. Although both models showed current conditions well, the GFS had a slight edge over the NAM on the placement of the low pressure system over southeastern Missouri. GFS soundings were used to assess the potential cloud cover and rain chances through the period. To assist in temperatures, both the GEFS and SREF plumes were consulted.
A large trough was situated over the eastern United States at the beginning of the forecast period as evident at the 250-mb level. Throughout the week into the weekend the trough slowly shifts to the east as the low pressure system occludes over the Ohio River Valley, keeping the trough overhead until 06Z Sunday before the trough finally moves to the east.
High vorticity is associated with this trough as seen at the 500-mb level. Circulation persists over central Missouri until it moves away by 09Z Saturday. Circulations suggest higher chances of rain and cloud cover as its over Missouri. After it leaves the area, little to no vorticity is present for the rest of the forecast period.
At the 700-mb, high amounts of Relative Humidity is present over Mid-MO through 09Z Saturday, when the low pressure system shifts east during its occlusion. This occlusion is supported by its vertically stacked nature through the various levels of the atmosphere. GFS soundings show a saturated air mass until 09Z Saturday, which suggests periods of rain with cloud cover. After the higher RH moves east, drier air filters in for the rest of the period.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side as seen on the 850-mb map, with no areas of cooler or warmer weather in Missouri during the next several days. SREF & GEFS plumes, as well as the GFS soundings, suggest our temperatures hold steady until Saturday. Future forecasters should pay attention to the intrusion of cold air over the northern plains as it makes its way into Missouri.
At the surface, winds remain out of the northwest throughout the forecast period as the backside of the trough struggles to move out of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. No signs of advection are present, further suggesting temperatures will remain steady through Saturday.
-Meyer
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