Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Clouds lingering. Low: 42
Tuesday: Becoming sunny. High: 60
Tuesday Night: Becoming overcast. Low: 49
Wednesday: Overcast. Rain beginning in the afternoon. High: 57
Wednesday Night: Showers. Low: 47
Discussion: After a very eventful afternoon and evening yesterday, today has definitely been the calm after the storm. Today, with a break from the rain, Mid-Missouri will remain cloudy and dry for the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours. Going into Tuesday, we will climb into the upper '50s and low '60s as the clouds push out of the Mid-Missouri region to the east becoming sunny. Tuesday evening a warm front will push through the region bringing clouds and lows in the upper '40s for Tuesday night. With an overcast sky to start Wednesday, the chance for more precipitation increases as a cold front pushes through Wednesday evening with highs reaching the mid to upper '50s. This cold front will bring a line of showers pushing into the region with precipitation totals reaching up to 1/2 of an inch. Showers may linger going into Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper '40s.
Forecasters: Alexander, Gromada, Gotsch
Date Issued: 10/25/21 05:00PM CST
Technical discussion:
After a very active weather day on Sunday, more seasonal conditions are re-entering the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The focus of this forecast is the ridge that will be slowing moving over Missouri. For this forecast, we decided to work with a blend of NAM, GFS and HRRR models, primarily using the NAM. We are using this method due to how similarly the NAM and GFS models are performing with initial conditions and using the HRRR to determine cloud coverage over the next 18 hours.
Currently, there is a very pronounced upper-level meridional pattern situated across the northern half of the CONUS. During the day on Monday, the trough that brought severe weather is moving farther eastward dragging in a strong ridge behind it. This ridge will be the governing force for the atmosphere for majority of this forecast period until on Wednesday when a trough, currently over southern California, enters the area.
Tonight, we will see low-level clouds that will keep our low temperature in the low 40s. The clouds are expected to begin to clear after sunrise making tomorrow sunny. As the high pressure system and ridge continue to move into our area from the northeast, winds will become stronger and from the east. During the day Tuesday, winds are expected to be around 10-15mph with the sun warming us up to the upper 50s.
A warm front begins trans-versing Missouri, bringing warmer temperatures and more moisture Tuesday night. Most of this moisture and warmer air will be coming from the Gulf of Mexico via the LLJ. The moisture and warm air that this fropa brings in will keep the low temperature slightly above 50 for Tuesday night. With this warm fropa, more clouds, and eventually rain, can be expected Tuesday night; the rain is expected to begin after sunrise on Wednesday and continue through Wednesday night. On Wednesday, we can expect to see a low pressure system over Oklahoma and moving east. This low pressure system will bring increased values of vorticity and a cold front. These aspects of the low pressure system will effect Columbia, MO the most in the afternoon and overnight hours of Wednesday. There is also some isolated divergence above southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.
The next shift should pay extra attention to the low temperatures on Tuesday night, do to models non-agreeance, and the passage for the low pressure system on Wednesday for rain totals and timing.
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