Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Friday Night: Becoming mostly clear. Low: 34
Saturday: Clear sky. High: 65
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 39
Sunday: Clear and warmer. High: 70
Discussion:
Football fans will be in for a nice game as calm autumn weather rolls in over the weekend. A high pressure system should remove the clouds that have been lingering over mid-Missouri for the last several days. That said, the low temperature should dip pretty low on Friday night, but not quite freezing. The remainder of the weekend will remain clear with temperatures on the rise through Sunday.
====================================================================
Forecasters: Millsap, Ethridge, Travis
Date Issued: 10/15/21 5:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
The NAM was the primary model used for this forecast. NAM had better consensus on the temperatures for Friday when viewing the SREF plumes, while the GFS had some wild variability in temperature for Friday on the GFES ensemble model. The main focus of this forecast was the low temperature for Friday night. Freezing temperatures, however, are not expected for this forecast period.
At the 250-mb level, there is a weak jet streak influencing the Midwest. There is an amplified trough over Missouri that is developing a positive tilt as it moves to the east, indicating that the low pressure system over the region is weakening.
At the 500-mb level, there is strong widespread circulation over Missouri for Friday that moves out of the region on Saturday. With the weakening system over the region, the effects of this circulation are likely to be minimal. The trough associated with this surge of vorticity moves out Saturday and is replaced by a large ridge over the area for the remainder of the weekend.
At the 700-mb level, the moisture over the region becomes sparse overnight and drier air replaces it. The NAM shows this moisture staying mainly to the north and east. This can be attributed to a high pressure system moving in from the west, pushing the pockets of moist air out of the area of interest.
At the 850-mb level, a low pressure system to the north will generate an area of CAA that will bring the temperature on Friday night noticeably lower. As the low pressure system moves northeast and is replaced by high pressure, the temperatures begin to warm again. That said, the same high pressure system's anticyclonic pattern will prevent southerly warm air from reaching mid-Missouri.
Using the NAM model soundings for 12Z, decreasing levels of saturation at the mid-altitudes show cloud cover moving out of the area. For Saturday, WAA was indicated by the wind barbs showing a veering wind profile.
-Ethridge, Millsap
No comments:
Post a Comment