Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Low: 47

Wednesday: Scattered clouds. High: 61

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 50

 

Thursday: Clear. High: 67

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

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Discussion:

November comes to an end with clouds and a chance for sprinkles on Tuesday night. These clouds clear up on Wednesday, as December gives a warm welcome with above average temperatures for the following few days, due to high pressure under a large ridge. The sky will remain clear and sunny, with temperatures reaching the high 60s Thursday afternoon. 

- VanUnnik

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Watts, Bongard

Date Issued: 11/30/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

This forecast was developed using 12z run of the GFS model. The GFS model had higher wind speeds and temperatures that matched the initial conditions while NAM 40 had lower temperatures that didn't go along with the moisture in the forecast period.

At 250 mb there was a meridional flow in a ridge-trough pattern along with a jet stream coming from the northern Rockies drifting over the Mid-Missouri region tonight going into Wednesday morning, with stronger westerly winds shifting to northerly winds causing a shortwave to impact the region at 15z Wednesday.

500 mb chart consist of positive vorticity advecting over the Mid-Missouri region from the west with a ridge drifting over the Midwest throughout the forecast. This will cause moderate winds of 30 knots to transition into stronger winds of 50-60 knots.

 At 700mb moisture will persist 21z Tuesday and exits 12z Wednesday with cloud cover through Wednesday morning with westerly winds of 40 knots drifting across the Midwest with a chance of precipitation tonight going into Wednesday.

850 mb will consist of moisture Wednesday at 06z with westerly winds transitioning into northerly winds thanks to a shortwave passing over the region throughout this forecast.

Lower forecasted temperatures earlier this week were increased due to a significant warming trend in the model runs.

-Watts

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 35

Tuesday: Increasing clouds. High: 54

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low: 39

 

Wednesday: Becoming clear. High: 59

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 47

 

 

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Discussion:
As November comes to an end with December quickly approaching, temperatures will stay above average for this week. Tonight, the sky will clear out with light winds coming from the southwest and lows dropping into the mid 30s for the mid-Missouri region. However, clouds will return as we head into Tuesday with highs reaching the mid 50s, but rain chances return Tuesday night. This event will not be a complete washout for the region; only trace amounts up to 0.05 of an inch are expected. Lows will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s Tuesday night and Columbia will see the possibility of showers. Tuesday night looks to stay partly cloudy. As the Mid-Missouri region clears out by Wednesday, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s for a mild day and night with lows in the upper 40s and increasing cloud cover. 

-Gromada

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Forecasters: Alexander, Gromada, Gotsch

Date Issued: 11/29/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

After a very temperate Thanksgiving, a ridge has settled on the western half of the CONUS causing the sky to clear and diurnal temperature to fluctuate greatly.  While the sky will remain clear for the next 12 hours, clouds are expected to begin filtering into the area on Tuesday due to a 250mb shortwave trough ahead of a slightly stronger shortwave trough that will traverse the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. There is not a lot of active weather expected in this forecasting period, but nonetheless the NAM and GFS both were used. We needed to use both models this shift because the GFS was doing better with the upper level winds and surface temperatures while putting a lot of moisture into the atmosphere that we felt did not belong. The NAM was missing accuracy with the surface temperature, but we felt its moisture amounts were much more reasonable. 

Currently, the jet stream is flowing north of the Rockies, zonally over Montana, then gently turning into a northwesterly wind over South Dakota and Nebraska. From there it maintains a fairly straight path, flying over points such as Missouri and northern Gerogia. As mentioned before, there are two shortwave troughs expected to pass over Missouri before Wednesday morning. The first shortwave is expected to enter the region around noon on Tuesday and exit later that evening. This is a mild shortwave and is likely to only bring a few more clouds to the area. The second shortwave, entering Missouri around 12AM Wednesday is a bit stronger and positively tilted. There is some upper-level divergence and mid-level negative omega associated with this shortwave. Mid to upper-level precipitation could occur with this system, but with a large dry layer beneath it, most of the precipitation will likely turn into virga. That being said, there is a chunk of mid to lower-level moisture in Iowa and if that moisture were to make its way into Mid-Missouri, we could see slightly higher precipitation amounts. All in all, we expect total precipitation accumulation amounts to be less than .05 inch.

Once the second shortwave exits Wednesday morning, the sky should begin clearing up again creating a day similar to Monday, albeit with a few more clouds. Wednesday night the sky will become a bit more cloudy, and with light winds from the southwest, the temperature should be warmer than the preceding nights.

The next shift should pay attention to the shortwaves' passage and where areas of moisture are located. Otherwise, there is not a lot of action expected in the next few days.

-Alexander

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Mostly sunny. High: 59 

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 37

Tuesday: Cloudy. Chances of rain possible. High: 57 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Chances of rain possible. Low: 37

 

Wednesday: Becoming clear. High: 59

 

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Discussion:
 

It's starting to sound like a broken record as this forecast starts out with above average temperatures. Highs stick to the upper 50's as we move into December, with lows in the upper 30's. A low pressure system moving in over the next few days brings in clouds along with a possible chance of rain for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rains should stay light, and accumulations should be from trace amounts to around .05". Things begin to clear out on Wednesday, leaving calmer conditions for the rest of the week.

-Cade

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Forecasters: Baker, Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 11/29/21 10:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

Calm and cool conditions will continue to persist with a possibilities of some showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. The primary focus of this period will be a weak short wave followed by a weakening low pressure system forming off of the Rocky Mountains heading east. GFS and NAM both had a questionable path of the low pressure system and short wave, but NAM was chosen due to the NAM ensembles and temperature forecasting.

 High values of divergence were analyzed at 250 hPa allowing for convergence at the surface Tuesday afternoon (18Z). These values stick around through Wednesday afternoon giving suspicion to a possible front moving through, or possible lift at the surface. 

This is again supported as higher levels of spin and lift at 500 hPa are swept into the area moving NW in association with the LPS northeast of the forecast area. However, a short wave moves across the CONUS from the pacific northwest Tuesday at 18Z. 

The area seems to stay quite dry until Tuesday morning as visible on 700 hPa Relative Humidity map. Cloud cover Tuesday into Wednesday will keep temperatures warmer, leading to a potential warm up on Wednesday as high pressure builds back in and winds return to a northwest flow. Along with the LPS moving into the forecast area, the area may see some upper level clouds Monday into Monday afternoon; however, clouds will begin to form ahead of the LPS due to surface winds switching southerly allowing for moisture and WAA to enter the area. This is supported by the moisture train and moisture vectors. Which leads to a suspicion of possible showers Tuesday with the passing of the front.

Surface winds show a weakening LPS moving across the area. Ahead of this, a possible cold front is evident due to the NAM surface map. With WAA bringing in moisture and warmer temperatures Monday afternoon, a possibility of some rain Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon should not be ruled out ahead of the cold front passage. However, with the strong Northwest flow that we have recently seen, conditions have the potential to stay dry. 

As the LPS weakens as it moved west, high pressure will build back in Wednesday, for another clear and quite sunny day bringing temperatures back up into the upper 50s.

-Baker

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 36

Saturday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High: 56

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle late. Low: 43

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning; clearing by the afternoon. High: 52

 

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 25

 

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Discussion:

As students head out of town for Thanksgiving break, a mild weekend looks likely for the empty campus. Clouds stick around for most of the weekend with the exception of the occasional peaks of blue on Saturday. A low-pressure system moving in from the Rocky Mountains will keep clouds around for Saturday night. The cold front with this system has little moisture to work with, but drizzle overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning cannot be ruled out. The cold front passes Columbia by sunrise on Sunday taking the clouds with it. The sky clears out by afternoon and the sunshine will prevent daytime highs from falling much behind the front. Sunday night remains clear with another chilly low in the 20s.

- Travis

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Forecasters: Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 11/19/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

Calm and cool conditions will continue to persist throughout the weekend with the exception being a possible drizzle Saturday night. The primary focus of this period will be the slow progression of a weak low pressure system forming over the Rocky Mountains and heading east, which is followed closely behind by a more potent trough. GFS and NAM had a questionable handling on the low pressure system over the Rocky Mountains and the ensemble models both had loose consensus in terms of high and low temperatures. Upon closer inspection, the NAM ensemble had slightly tighter consensus in this regard. This provided the basis of choosing NAM as the main guidance for this forecast.

The majority of the weekend will remain cool with varying cloud cover depending on the day. The small low-pressure system moving from the west through Iowa and Northern Missouri will be largely responsible for these clouds, although this system is only associated with a weak shortwave trough. With this in mind, largely active weather is not expected aside from a possible light drizzle Saturday night. The 12Z model sounding indicated a fairly thick layer of moisture in the mid-to-upper levels with a pocket of dry air near the surface. Although any precipitation would be unlikely to result in large accumulations, the possibility of drizzle can not be ruled out.

Temperatures over the weekend will see a rise and fall, maxing out on Saturday as highs are expected to be in the mid-50s. This is attributed to southerly flow correlated with a lengthy period of WAA. With that said, high amounts of cloud cover during the day with only the occasional peak in sunshine will curtail the temperatures to prevent them from rising any higher than the mid-50s. The clouds will also keep nighttime temperatures relatively warm, with lows on Saturday dipping into the mid-40s.

The possible drizzle Saturday night will be ahead of a weak cold front, which will pass through Columbia by Sunday morning. The sky will begin to clear out behind the front as the day progresses and the high temperature will only be slightly cooler, reaching the low-50s thanks to the increasingly abundant sunshine. The thickness map provided evidence of a brief period of CAA in the form of heavily-compacted solenoids and a sudden shift in wind direction, displaying a northwesterly flow. The effects of this will certainly be felt Sunday night with a clear sky, which will allow the temperatures to drop into the mid-20s.

- Millsap

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: 50

Friday Night: Overcast. Low: 39

Saturday: Building clouds. High: 56

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 46

Sunday: Mostly cloudy to start; clearing in the afternoon. High: 55

 

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Discussion:

Milder weather is ahead this weekend as southerly winds following the passage of a surface high will keep high temperatures seasonably moderate this afternoon. Expect overcast skies tonight after midnight as more mid-level clouds move in trailing the high cirrus we'll see today. These clouds will persist throughout most of the day Saturday as a warming southerly breeze continues. Sunday morning around 3-4 A.M. will see the passage of a weak cold front through the area, bringing northwesterly winds and more clouds with it. Any showers associated with this system will avoid mid-Missouri to the south however, leading into a clear afternoon to cap off the weekend.

- Schneringer

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 11/18/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

The latest run of the GFS was used for this forecast period; however, both the NAM and GFS had little variability throughout the weekend. Overall greater forecaster confidence in the GFS tipped the scales in its favor. Model soundings were also used to assess cloud cover throughout the weekend, as well as potential rain chances.

The final day of the workweek starts off chilly, but temperatures will warm slightly this afternoon under minor surface ridging and its accompanied WAA. However, high cloud cover indicated from soundings will repress this warmup and keep high temperatures marginally below average.

Cloud cover plagues the region overnight with RH increasing at 700 mb around midnight. This will stave off frost chances Saturday morning with low temperatures unable to dip to freezing. The warmup also continues tomorrow under a stable ridge near the surface and zonal flow aloft. Highs will rebound to slightly above average by Saturday afternoon with continued overcast conditions.

An approaching deep trough on Saturday night will send an initial shortwave across the region, dragging a cold front through near 06Z Sunday. Forcing in our area specifically will be quite low, with some negative omega values blossoming just to our south after fropa. Have stuck with a dry forecast here due to less than ideal conditions over Columbia. RH will still be in abundance, allowing heavy cloud cover to persist into Sunday.

The trough will continue to propagate eastward into our region Sunday and push another cold front through at the end of the forecast period. The only noticeable change there will be reinforcing CAA and a return of below average temperatures next week.

- Splater

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 27

Friday: Sunny. High: 50

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 39

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 58

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 43

 

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Discussion:

The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues through the rest of the week into the weekend. Those who are trying to see the lunar eclipse between the hours of 1 and 4am Friday morning can expect a clear sky! However, you will want to have your coats as temperatures drop into the upper 20s for the overnight low. For the final day of classes before Thanksgiving break, the cooler temperatures will remain with a high of 50 with abundant sunshine. Those clear conditions will stick around for Friday night as the low will be 37. We begin to go up another hill on the roller coaster ride of temperatures on Saturday as we see a jump to a high of 58 degrees. It should be a pleasant last home football game for the Mizzou Tigers! Cloud cover will enter the region during the game, and stick around through Saturday night.

- Meyer

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 11/18/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

After analyzing current surface conditions and temperatures, the 12Z NAM was used for the forecast. The surface conditions of the NAM best depicted the pressure over mid-Missouri and accurately showed the low pressure system in the Northeast.

A jet streak moves through Missouri shown through the 250mb level, with Missouri sitting on the backside of a trough by 03Z Friday. The results of this trough moving to our east will leave Missouri in stable, but cooler conditions. The flow becomes zonal with westerly winds, allowing Missouri to not encounter any major shifts in temperatures. Zonal flow is interrupted when a slight shortwave ridge moves into Missouri early Saturday at 12Z. This brings a jet streak that may impact upper level conditions and cloud cover near the surface.

Vorticity present at the 500mb level exits Missouri at the beginning of the forecasting period. Missouri sees no circulation through Friday. Vorticity increases beginning at 03Z Saturday and continues for the rest of the forecasting period.

Relative humidity is low at 700mb Thursday and Friday. Friday, there is a small ridge that can be seen moving east beginning 09Z and leaving around 18Z. Saturday afternoon, relative humidity values still remain low, but higher values are present to the North of Columbia. Clouds will be likely into Saturday evening. Because relative humidity values are low, rain is not expected Thursday through Saturday.

Thursday afternoon cooler temperatures will be seen over Columbia, departing from the area with the trough. At 09Z Friday, a ridge moves over Missouri. Columbia sits on the backside of this ridge throughout the day Friday and Saturday with southwesterly flow. Saturday evening, a trough can be seen to the West. This low pressure system will move over Missouri 00Z Sunday, shifting these southerly winds to the north, bring cold air with it.

At the surface, cold air advection is present Thursday afternoon with a high pressure system. Cold air moves out with the high pressure system by 09Z Friday. However, by 15Z Friday, temperatures will be on the warmer side with the aid of warm air advection. Southerly flow with strong advection will remain until 03Z Sunday, when the low pressure system enters the area.

Soundings support the dry air present in Columbia over Thursday and Friday. Cloud cover can be expected beginning Saturday afternoon at 21Z. No moisture is present, so rain is unexpected throughout the forecasting period.

Future forecasters can expect cooler temperatures Sunday and should pay attention to the incoming trough from the West and its associated low pressure system. In addition, vorticity and relative humidity values appear high to the West.

- Heienickle

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday: Sunny. High: 46

Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 30

Friday: Mostly Sunny. High: 48

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 37

 

Saturday: Partly sunny. High: 58

 

 

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Discussion: 

 Ending the week before break much cooler than it started, after the passage of a cold front yesterday. Colder air behind the front and a breezy northwesterly wind will keep temperatures cooler on Thursday, but the good news is that a warm up is expected as winds will shift to the south on Friday and warmer air will move into Mid-Missouri. Along with the more seasonable temperatures will come some more clouds on Friday and Saturday, but no precipitation is expected. Enjoy the quiet and fall-like conditions as you are preparing for Thanksgiving break!

- Duff

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Forecasters: Duff, McDaniel, Aldrich

Date Issued: 11/18/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:    

The 06z GFS was used for our forecast today, as it initialized current and recent conditions better than the NAM, especially in relation to early morning temperatures. 

At 250 mb we can see that Missouri is featured at the bottom of a weakening trough, transitioning from negatively to positively tilted. We continue to endure the backside of the trough until 03z Friday, when the system and it’s jet streaks move off to the Northeast. As soon as it departs, though, a different set of jet streaks enter Missouri from directly west. Zonal in nature, these streaks are not associated with any trough, but are similar in magnitude to the streaks seen previously. They will affect Missouri from roughly 15z Saturday to 0z Monday, where they weaken and are carried off to the northeast by an incoming shortwave. The continuity of moderate jet steaks, different in direction but alike in their strength, indicates that Missouri will see a steady pattern of higher winds in the upper atmosphere, keeping the region fairly cold. 

Vorticity measurements appear to be mostly barren. Marginal vorticity leftover from last night quickly exits to the east later today, and values remain at zero throughout the entirety of Friday. A brief flaring of vorticity is observed over North-Central Missouri at Saturday 03z, but it is likely just an anomaly due to it’s isolation from any neighboring areas of vorticity. Also, high pressure building in from the southwest begins to approach Missouri at this time, making any serious bouts of vorticity unlikely at best. It is not until Sunday morning that vorticity values become sizable, correlating with the advancement of a shortwave trough. 

700 mb relative humidity is low for all of Thursday and Friday, as the drier air from yesterday’s cold front is centered upon the midwest region. Values will stay at nearly zero until Saturday 06z, where moisture slowly builds in from the northwest before accelerating on Sunday. Omega values do not seem to increase with moisture, though, indicating that any active weather or serious precipitation is likely. In fact, any rain would probably be in the form of very isolated/brief showers. 

850 charts clearly define a high pressure system moving west, pushing into Arkansas at Friday 06z, where it’s influence is large enough to affect the entire state. This supports indications of quieter weather at higher levels, and the system is powerful enough to bring warmer air from the gulf and southwest. As we become placed on the backside of the system at 21z Friday, we can expect the combination of southerly wind flow and southwestern air to warm our temperatures up considerably. 

GFS soundings display little moisture availability, with only some present on Friday night. Even then the readings are only enough to support some scattered, high level cloud cover that will not produce precipitation. 

Future forecasters should pay attention to the trough expected to enter the Great Plains on Sunday afternoon, as vorticity, omega, and humidity values look to increase drastically with it’s arrival. 

- McDonald

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Clearing sky. Low: 32

Thursday: Abundant sunshine. High: 46

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 30

Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: 48

 

Friday Night: Overcast. Low: 37

 

 

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Discussion: 

 Cooler temperatures are in store for Columbia for the remainder of the week as we look toward a break from our classes for Thanksgiving! These cooler temperatures are brought on by a cold front that moved through earlier on Wednesday. Our sky is expected to clear up through Thursday night, where clouds and slightly warmer temperatures will greet us for the rest of the week as a high pressure system to our south moves eastward. The rest of the week will be dry with no precipitation expected. Keep your winter jackets handy as we head into Thanksgiving break!

 

- McMullen

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Forecasters: McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran

Date Issued: 11/17/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:     

    The 12Z run of the NAM40 was selected for our forecast. Both the NAM40 and GFS20 were nearly identical with the NWS surface map. However, the NAM40's projection of a high over the Atlantic Ocean and much better temperature plumes via the SREF when compared to the current temperature edged the GFS20 out of the running. Soundings were utilized for cloud cover and temperatures in conjunction with the SREF plumes. A LPS over eastern Canada and its associated trough will be the primary driver of our weather for our forecasting period.

    As we observe the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence, a trough located over the Plains begins to push east at the time of writing. A jet streak downstream of the trough axis and its associated divergence forces into the Middle Mississippi Valley until Thursday at 18Z when the trough crosses over the Mid-Missouri region. Afterwards an upstream jet streak begins to push in briefly before moving towards the Ohio Valley to connect to the previously mentioned jet streak, leaving Columbia by 3Z Friday. Some upper level divergence can be seen over Missouri at 3Z Saturday as a zonal jet stream flows across the central CONUS, contributing to developing cloud cover at the end of the forecast period.

    Next, the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity shows very little circulation for the Columbia area as most of the circulation associated with the LPS over Ontario, Canada stays to our north. This remains true until Saturday at 3Z, when a small band of circulation moves with the zonal flow of the atmosphere. This band migrates east at 6Z Saturday, with the remaining time seeing spotty vorticity over the Midwest.

    For the 700-mb plot of heights, RH, and Omega, a strong band of moisture from the LPS over Ontario keeps Mid-Missouri saturated until 8Z Thursday, assisting in keeping our sky cloudy. However, once this band moves out, no significant areas of moisture are seen until 0Z Saturday. The bulk of this moisture is forecasted to remain to our north, east, and southeast over Iowa, Illinois, and the Ozarks.

 

    Finally, the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature showcases a shift of the winds over Columbia to the north at 21Z Wednesday. A strong northerly wind cools our area until 12Z Friday when a ridge from a HPS over Texas proceeds over Missouri, giving us a slightly warmer westerly-into-southwesterly wind for the remainder of the forecast period. Looking towards the surface plot of MSLP and 1000-500-mb thickness, strong solenoids indicates CAA already occuring through 15Z Thursday. Beginning 15Z Friday, WAA begins for Missouri, staying strong through the end of the week. No precipitation is anticipated for the forecasting period.

     

    Future forecasters should pay attention to the zonal jet streak aligned with Missouri for additional divergence and convergence aloft for the weekend.

 

- Noblitt

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday: Cloudy. Isolated showers through the early afternoon. High: 64

Wednesday Night: Clearing sky. Low: 32

Thursday: Sunny. High: 46         

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 30

 

Friday: Building clouds in the morning. High: 48

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

Don't let yesterday fool you--the rest of this week is going to be chilly (you can thank the cold front for this one). Since Wednesday's high temperature was reached just after midnight, it'll only grow cooler throughout the day. Chances for some light rain will linger through the early afternoon as the cold front crosses through the area. Following its passage, the sky will clear overnight, bringing us abundant sunshine and cool temperatures on Thursday. Clouds will begin to make their return Thursday night into Friday morning and will persist throughout the day on Friday as the next low pressure system takes aim at the Midwest.

 

- Macko

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 11/17/21 10:00 AM CDT

Technical discussion:  

   

The 06Z run of GFS20 was chosen for this forecast over the NAM40. Soundings and plumes were also consulted to determine cloud cover and consensus between model runs. Both the GFS and the NAM had an accurate portrayal of a low pressure system located in the southern Plains, but the NAM had the low being at a higher pressure than what was being observed. The GFS also had a higher consensus between model runs for temperatures and was closer to the current observed temperature.  

 

Columbia is currently under the influence of a low magnitude meridional flow and an upper level jet core located in northern Missouri. There is weak upper level divergence throughout early afternoon today as light, isolated showers move out of Columbia. After the conclusion of these showers there is no divergence to be found until the late hours of the day on Friday. The magnitude of the meridional flow increases as we head into the overnight hours as a trough deepens over the central Plains and a closed low develops over southern Canada. By daybreak on Thursday the axis of said trough will move into central Missouri bringing along with it a jet core which will help to clear the sky. As the trough moves east, we will see a more zonal wind pattern on Friday.  

 

There was no trace of vorticity throughout the forecast period in Columbia; however, there was a strong presence of vorticity in northern Missouri on Wednesday night, but this should not affect mid-Missouri. At the tail end of the forecast period on Friday night vorticity starts to build in the region. Future forecast shifts should take a look at this along with the increasing divergence aloft.  

 

Moisture is prevalent this morning as the sky is overcast and passing showers are moving out of Columbia. This moisture will stick around until the winds shift to a northerly component in the afternoon on Wednesday and push the moisture to the southeast keeping us dry throughout Thursday. As a high pressure system develops in northern Arkansas on Thursday night and Friday, moisture will build back into Columbia as we will see a southerly component to our wind.  

 

There will be a passage of a strong cold front late this morning or early this afternoon which is why our high temperature for the day was just after midnight. The fropa will shift our winds to a northerly component bringing us much colder Canadian air and will cause our temperatures to drop nearly 15 degrees from midnight. The rain associated with this front will be light and end in the early afternoon on Wednesday. Total rainfall accumulation will be less than 0.1”. Wednesday night we will fall under the influence of a LLJ which will help to clear the sky overnight into Thursday. Overnight on Thursday we start to see a shift in winds to the north-northwest as the high pressure system in northern Arkansas develops and by Friday we have south-southwest winds which will bring in more moisture and warmer air leaving us with an increasingly cloudy sky and warmer temperatures.  

 

--Kobielusz