Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 33


Partly cloudy. High: 49


Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 33


Mostly Sunny. High: 51


Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 34

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Discussion: It'll be wise to bring a coat with you this week with clouds covering  the Mid-Missouri region throughout the week. Missouri will be seeing the lowest temperatures since the spring, getting down to as low as freezing. Temperatures will warm up by the end of the week.  



Forecasters: Watts, VanUnnik, Travis

Date Issued: 11/02/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

For this forecast, the NAM40 and GFS20 had pretty similar outputs for placements of isobars and pressure systems. Both the GEFS and SREF plumes had a wide range of values relating to temperature, though neither seemed to correctly match what was observed at Sanborn Field. The NAM40 was chosen for this forecast due to the placement of the low pressure system over the Northeast United States, which will dominate our forecast, bringing wind shifts and cold air to Missouri.

Westerly winds take hold of central Missouri on Tuesday and Wednesday, as Northerly winds slowly take over Wednesday evening into night. North-Northwest winds remain at 250-mb throughout Thursday and Thursday night.

The 500-mb map looks relatively similar, with Northwest winds turning Northerly Thursday morning. Weak circulation advects over mid-Missouri from Wednesday afternoon to nighttime.

Few negative omega values are seen over Missouri on Thursday at the 700-mb map, though it does not seem to be cause for concern, as other factors are pretty calm.

Winds shift a bit more at 850-mb. Northerly winds turn Westerly on Wednesday night, though on Thursday night, winds turn Southwesterly as a high pressure system pushes east.

At the surface, thickness lines show the 540 line right over mid-Missouri from Tuesday up until Thursday evening. The 540 line pushes Northeast around the same time that the winds shift to Southwesterly, again due to the high pressure system pushing east. WAA will bring temperatures slightly warmer than the previous few days.

Soundings were used for temperature and cloud forecasting. Upper level clouds are seen on Tuesday, and as they begin to clear on Wednesday morning, saturation appears around 850-mb, and low-level clouds appear, giving a partly-cloudy forecast.


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