Thursday, November 18, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 27

Friday: Sunny. High: 50

Friday Night:
Clear. Low: 39

Sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 58

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 43


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The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues through the rest of the week into the weekend. Those who are trying to see the lunar eclipse between the hours of 1 and 4am Friday morning can expect a clear sky! However, you will want to have your coats as temperatures drop into the upper 20s for the overnight low. For the final day of classes before Thanksgiving break, the cooler temperatures will remain with a high of 50 with abundant sunshine. Those clear conditions will stick around for Friday night as the low will be 37. We begin to go up another hill on the roller coaster ride of temperatures on Saturday as we see a jump to a high of 58 degrees. It should be a pleasant last home football game for the Mizzou Tigers! Cloud cover will enter the region during the game, and stick around through Saturday night.

- Meyer


Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 11/18/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

After analyzing current surface conditions and temperatures, the 12Z NAM was used for the forecast. The surface conditions of the NAM best depicted the pressure over mid-Missouri and accurately showed the low pressure system in the Northeast.

A jet streak moves through Missouri shown through the 250mb level, with Missouri sitting on the backside of a trough by 03Z Friday. The results of this trough moving to our east will leave Missouri in stable, but cooler conditions. The flow becomes zonal with westerly winds, allowing Missouri to not encounter any major shifts in temperatures. Zonal flow is interrupted when a slight shortwave ridge moves into Missouri early Saturday at 12Z. This brings a jet streak that may impact upper level conditions and cloud cover near the surface.

Vorticity present at the 500mb level exits Missouri at the beginning of the forecasting period. Missouri sees no circulation through Friday. Vorticity increases beginning at 03Z Saturday and continues for the rest of the forecasting period.

Relative humidity is low at 700mb Thursday and Friday. Friday, there is a small ridge that can be seen moving east beginning 09Z and leaving around 18Z. Saturday afternoon, relative humidity values still remain low, but higher values are present to the North of Columbia. Clouds will be likely into Saturday evening. Because relative humidity values are low, rain is not expected Thursday through Saturday.

Thursday afternoon cooler temperatures will be seen over Columbia, departing from the area with the trough. At 09Z Friday, a ridge moves over Missouri. Columbia sits on the backside of this ridge throughout the day Friday and Saturday with southwesterly flow. Saturday evening, a trough can be seen to the West. This low pressure system will move over Missouri 00Z Sunday, shifting these southerly winds to the north, bring cold air with it.

At the surface, cold air advection is present Thursday afternoon with a high pressure system. Cold air moves out with the high pressure system by 09Z Friday. However, by 15Z Friday, temperatures will be on the warmer side with the aid of warm air advection. Southerly flow with strong advection will remain until 03Z Sunday, when the low pressure system enters the area.

Soundings support the dry air present in Columbia over Thursday and Friday. Cloud cover can be expected beginning Saturday afternoon at 21Z. No moisture is present, so rain is unexpected throughout the forecasting period.

Future forecasters can expect cooler temperatures Sunday and should pay attention to the incoming trough from the West and its associated low pressure system. In addition, vorticity and relative humidity values appear high to the West.

- Heienickle

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