Friday, November 19, 2021



Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Mostly cloudy. High: 50

Friday Night:
Overcast. Low: 39

Building clouds. High: 56

Saturday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 46

Mostly cloudy to start; clearing in the afternoon. High: 55


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Milder weather is ahead this weekend as southerly winds following the passage of a surface high will keep high temperatures seasonably moderate this afternoon. Expect overcast skies tonight after midnight as more mid-level clouds move in trailing the high cirrus we'll see today. These clouds will persist throughout most of the day Saturday as a warming southerly breeze continues. Sunday morning around 3-4 A.M. will see the passage of a weak cold front through the area, bringing northwesterly winds and more clouds with it. Any showers associated with this system will avoid mid-Missouri to the south however, leading into a clear afternoon to cap off the weekend.

- Schneringer


Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 11/18/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

The latest run of the GFS was used for this forecast period; however, both the NAM and GFS had little variability throughout the weekend. Overall greater forecaster confidence in the GFS tipped the scales in its favor. Model soundings were also used to assess cloud cover throughout the weekend, as well as potential rain chances.

The final day of the workweek starts off chilly, but temperatures will warm slightly this afternoon under minor surface ridging and its accompanied WAA. However, high cloud cover indicated from soundings will repress this warmup and keep high temperatures marginally below average.

Cloud cover plagues the region overnight with RH increasing at 700 mb around midnight. This will stave off frost chances Saturday morning with low temperatures unable to dip to freezing. The warmup also continues tomorrow under a stable ridge near the surface and zonal flow aloft. Highs will rebound to slightly above average by Saturday afternoon with continued overcast conditions.

An approaching deep trough on Saturday night will send an initial shortwave across the region, dragging a cold front through near 06Z Sunday. Forcing in our area specifically will be quite low, with some negative omega values blossoming just to our south after fropa. Have stuck with a dry forecast here due to less than ideal conditions over Columbia. RH will still be in abundance, allowing heavy cloud cover to persist into Sunday.

The trough will continue to propagate eastward into our region Sunday and push another cold front through at the end of the forecast period. The only noticeable change there will be reinforcing CAA and a return of below average temperatures next week.

- Splater

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