Thursday, November 11, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night:
Partly cloudy, breezy. Low: 36


Mostly cloudy, breezy. High: 43


Friday Night:
Partly cloudy
. Low: 28  

Increasing clouds through the day. High: 43

Saturday Night:
Overcast. Low: 40


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Cooler temperatures approach Columbia, Missouri the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Thursday night will be mostly clear with breezy conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s. The temperature will remain low with cold winds continuing throughout the day Friday. Although light clouds will be present, rain is not expected. Friday night can expect below freezing temperatures due to persistent northerly winds. Saturday the sun may shine in the morning, but the sky will be dominated by clouds mid-afternoon. Bring a jacket to cheer on the Tigers for one of the last home football games of the season. Saturday night clouds and low temperatures will persist.

- Heienickle


Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 11/11/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

The 12Z run of the GFS was primarily used for this forecast. Although both the GFS and the NAM had a good handle on the placement of the low pressure system over the Great Lakes, the GFS had a better handle on current temperatures. Soundings from the GFS were also used to assess cloud cover and any possible precipitation chances through the forecast period.

A large trough is moving over the eastern United States at 21Z Thursday as evident at the 250-mb level. This trough will be slow to shift eastward over the next several days, not making it east of Mid-Missouri until 00Z Sunday. The trough will dig further south on Friday, filtering colder temperatures into the region overnight.

At the 500-mb level, the trough itself contains significant circulation as it slowly moves over the Great Lakes, keeping vorticity over Missouri through the day on Friday. Vorticity exits the area around 15Z Saturday, and conditions are calm for the rest of the forecast period.

The 700-mb level shows higher pockets of relative humidity around Missouri, as evidenced by an area of showers developing across the state at 21Z Thursday. The air becomes drier overnight, suggesting the rain showers dissipate by 00Z Friday. Relative humidity returns to Central Missouri by 12Z on Friday, increasing cloud cover until it moves out by 03Z Saturday. GFS Soundings show dry air near the surface with a near 20 degree dewpoint depression, meaning no precipitation is likely to occur with this cloud cover. Relative humidity moves back in by 21Z Saturday and lasts through the end of the forecast period, but the relatively dry surface suggests precipitation chances are slim.

As the trough continues to dig further south on the 850-mb level, colder air filters in behind it. The strong northwesterly winds associated with the trough at 25-35 kts will aid in the colder air moving into Central Missouri. Below freezing temperatures will settle in at 09Z on Friday and remain until 18Z Saturday.

The winds at the 850-mb level translate to the surface with sustained winds around 15-20 kts until 15Z Saturday as the trough moves away. Into Saturday night, weak Warm Air Advection begins as winds shift to a southwesterly direction, likely keeping temperatures steady.

Future forecasters should pay attention to a low pressure system which moves southeast through the Great Lakes into Sunday.


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