Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Becoming overcast. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Overcast. Low: 56

Wednesday: Overcast. Chance of an isolated drizzle. High: 67            

Wednesday Night: Showers beginning before midnight. Low: 48

  

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 54

 

 

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Discussion: 

I wish we didn't have to say goodbye to this wonderful weather just yet, but I suppose all good things must come to an end. Cooler temperatures and even some rain are in store for us during the middle of this week, with total rain accumulations being just under 0.5". On Thursday morning, you can anticipate to be greeted by some sunshine that will stick around throughout the day.

- Macko

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Forecasters: Macko

Date Issued: 11/09/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  

    This forecast was developed using the 06Z run of the GFS20. The GFS20 verified with this morning's low temperature whereas the NAM40 was running slightly warm. GEFS plumes were also utilized in determining total precipitation accumulations.

    The jetstream located over Missouri will continue to push eastward throughout the day on Monday before escaping the state boundary this evening. The 250-mb level remains monotonous until early Wednesday night. At this point, the jet is expected to strengthen over Missouri, with wind speeds within the range of 60 to 80 knots. Significant upper-level divergence is also found along the Kansas-Missouri border early Wednesday evening. However, this divergence will likely lose some of its significance as it planned to weaken throughout the night as the system travels into central Missouri. A well-defined low-pressure system moving southeast from the Dakotas will likely impact the weather from Thursday into the early weekend. The jetstream over Missouri will strengthen considerably as it rounds the trough associated with this low. 

    Positive vorticity is expected across Missouri over the next several days. Although it is not particularly impressive until Wednesday night, its presence will certainly promote cloud development.

    The 700-mb layer dry through Wednesday morning before significant moisture will be found along the Kansas-Missouri border late Wednesday afternoon. This highly saturated environment will push into the area in the overnight hours. The layer will have dried out by daybreak on Thursday. 

    Moisture is prevalent at 850-mb from Tuesday morning all the way through early Thursday morning. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen, again, along the Kansas-Missouri border during the day on Wednesday. The LLJ will continue to strengthen over mid-Missouri overnight before proceeding to weaken on Thursday.

    GFS MUCAPE plots suggest there may be some weak CAPE over portions of eastern and central Missouri during the afternoon on Wednesday, thus some thunder cannot be ruled out entirely. Regardless, convection is minimal.

    Total precipitation accumulations remain uncertain. The GFS20 06Z run suggests that the Columbia area will only receive around 0.25" of rain in total. However, surrounding cities and counties are modeled to receive 0.5" or greater. GEFS plumes also expose a great variability in precipitation totals for KCOU. Future forecast shifts should further investigate these accumulations.

- Macko