Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 35
Friday: Few clouds in the morning. Sunny in the afternoon. High: 55
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 37
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, clear in the afternoon. High: 62
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 43
Discussion:
The story for the rest of the week is the return to seasonal temperatures for early November with dry conditions. The average high temperature for Columbia this time of the year is around 60, with the average low being 41. These temperatures will still be below average Thursday night with a low of 35, the first night above freezing this week. With the exception of a few clouds in the morning, Friday afternoon will be sunny with a high of 55. Temperatures will remain below average Friday night into Saturday with a low of 37. On Saturday, temperatures will be more seasonal with a high of 62 and a low of 43.
- Meyer
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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr
Date Issued: 11/04/21 5:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
Both the GFS and NAM models were consulted to forecast for the next days. The NAM better estimated the current surface temperatures and dewpoints found at Sanborn Field. Further, the NAM better showed the low-pressure system over the Northwest and ridge over the Southwestern United States. The 12Z run of the NAM was used for this forecast.
The 250mb level shows no jet streaks over the midwest. Attention is drawn towards a large ridge, which is present to the west of Missouri and moves east during the forecasting period. Winds flow from the Northwest, as a trough begins to elongate over Missouri and Illinois at 12Z Friday. The jetstreak remains over the Northwest for the forecasting period and slowly moves east. This region will remain to the North and will not impact Columbia.
Weak vorticity is present over Missouri around 21Z Thursday at 500mb. This vorticity remains until Friday morning around 15Z. Afterwards, Columbia remains stable with clear conditions. Strong vorticity is present in the North and the southern half of this circulation will begin to impact Mid-Missouri Saturday at 9Z. Small amounts remain through Saturday as this Northern system moves to the East. Conditions clear once again Saturday night.
There are no high relative humidity amounts present over Columbia shown through the 700mb map. The local area will remain dry; omega values are also not strong. High relative humidity values are present to the North over Iowa and Wisconsin.
The cold air present at 850mb remains over Missouri until Friday 20Z, when temperatures will begin to warm with the support of southerly winds. A high pressure system develops over Missouri at the same time Friday afternoon, but quickly moves out. The incoming ridge brings winds into a westerly flow early Saturday morning. Warm air advection will be present bringing higher temperatures Saturday.
The surface shows stable conditions with a high pressure system over Illinois Thursday evening. Winds are weak and southerly. Missouri will see dry and clear sky conditions over the forecasting period. Solenoids are present over Iowa and Wisconsin supporting the moisture and advection present to the North at the other pressure levels.
- Heienickle
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