Friday, November 19, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 36

Becoming mostly cloudy. High: 56

Saturday Night:
Cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle late. Low: 43

Mostly cloudy in the morning; clearing by the afternoon. High: 52


Sunday Night:
Mostly clear. Low: 25


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As students head out of town for Thanksgiving break, a mild weekend looks likely for the empty campus. Clouds stick around for most of the weekend with the exception of the occasional peaks of blue on Saturday. A low-pressure system moving in from the Rocky Mountains will keep clouds around for Saturday night. The cold front with this system has little moisture to work with, but drizzle overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning cannot be ruled out. The cold front passes Columbia by sunrise on Sunday taking the clouds with it. The sky clears out by afternoon and the sunshine will prevent daytime highs from falling much behind the front. Sunday night remains clear with another chilly low in the 20s.

- Travis


Forecasters: Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 11/19/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

Calm and cool conditions will continue to persist throughout the weekend with the exception being a possible drizzle Saturday night. The primary focus of this period will be the slow progression of a weak low pressure system forming over the Rocky Mountains and heading east, which is followed closely behind by a more potent trough. GFS and NAM had a questionable handling on the low pressure system over the Rocky Mountains and the ensemble models both had loose consensus in terms of high and low temperatures. Upon closer inspection, the NAM ensemble had slightly tighter consensus in this regard. This provided the basis of choosing NAM as the main guidance for this forecast.

The majority of the weekend will remain cool with varying cloud cover depending on the day. The small low-pressure system moving from the west through Iowa and Northern Missouri will be largely responsible for these clouds, although this system is only associated with a weak shortwave trough. With this in mind, largely active weather is not expected aside from a possible light drizzle Saturday night. The 12Z model sounding indicated a fairly thick layer of moisture in the mid-to-upper levels with a pocket of dry air near the surface. Although any precipitation would be unlikely to result in large accumulations, the possibility of drizzle can not be ruled out.

Temperatures over the weekend will see a rise and fall, maxing out on Saturday as highs are expected to be in the mid-50s. This is attributed to southerly flow correlated with a lengthy period of WAA. With that said, high amounts of cloud cover during the day with only the occasional peak in sunshine will curtail the temperatures to prevent them from rising any higher than the mid-50s. The clouds will also keep nighttime temperatures relatively warm, with lows on Saturday dipping into the mid-40s.

The possible drizzle Saturday night will be ahead of a weak cold front, which will pass through Columbia by Sunday morning. The sky will begin to clear out behind the front as the day progresses and the high temperature will only be slightly cooler, reaching the low-50s thanks to the increasingly abundant sunshine. The thickness map provided evidence of a brief period of CAA in the form of heavily-compacted solenoids and a sudden shift in wind direction, displaying a northwesterly flow. The effects of this will certainly be felt Sunday night with a clear sky, which will allow the temperatures to drop into the mid-20s.

- Millsap

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