Friday, November 5, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Few clouds around midday. Sunny. High: 55



Friday Night:
Few high clouds: Low 36


Clear. High: 61


Saturday Night:
Few high clouds, then clear. Low: 43


Clear. High: 66
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  Expect a continuation of the clear weather we've been having into this weekend. A few high clouds overnight will be the only disturbances in the sky over Columbia for the next few days. Seasonal to above average high temperatures will accompany mild winds, so make sure to take advantage of these nice afternoons as we get close to the winter season.

- Schneringer


Forecasters: Splater, Schneringer, Bongard

Date Issued: 11/05/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  

Both the GFS and NAM were considered for the forecast ahead due to a good handle on ridging over the weekend. However, the NAM was marginally cooler with starting conditions, leading to more confidence in the GFS. The 06Z run of the GFS was thus utilized because of its overall better performance. GFS model soundings were also consulted for the potential of fog on Saturday morning.

This weekend will be largely uneventful for Mid-Missouri with above average temperatures possible as a ridge moves in. Friday will be similar to much of this past week with northerly flow dominating the upper levels, keeping cool and dry conditions in place. Southwesterly winds today will be a precursor to warming temperatures heading into the weekend.

Clear conditions persist tonight due to zonal flow in the upper levels, which may allow for the development of river valley fog early Saturday morning. Light winds observed on GFS soundings further support this possibility. Fog will burn away quickly, though, with bountiful sunshine in store the rest of Saturday. Southerly flow continues at the surface, sending temperatures to around average during the afternoon.

Ridging increases into Sunday, opening up central Missouri to more warm air from the south. This will drive temperatures nearly 5 to 10 degrees above average with more abundant sunshine through Sunday afternoon. The ridge aloft will be the defining feature of the beginning of next week as it anchors in above-average warmth.

 - Splater

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