Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday: Becoming partly cloudy. High: 62
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 46
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 73
Tuesday Night: Becoming partly cloudy. Light sprinkle possible. Low: 56
Wednesday: Cloudy. Sprinkles possible late afternoon. High: 59
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Discussion:
Another warm glimpse before cooler temperatures take over. A light warm front will makes it way through the area today leaving behind southerly warm air and some high level clouds. Temperatures will warm to upper 60s to lower 70s with sunny conditions. Conditions will not stick around long before a cold front moves through Wednesday. Winter jackets and a possible rain jacket might be needed when going out on the town Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will not be cold enough for any winter precipitation, but some showers should not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Winds will then resume back to northerly with cooler and drier conditions sticking around through the end of the work week.
-Baker
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Forecasters: Baker, Cade, Travis
Date Issued: 11/15/21 10:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
Once again, 2021 is bringing us above average temperatures for the
time of the year! The beginning of the week will be warm with highs in
the 60's and 70's. On Wednesday, a cold front will move through bringing
temperatures back down to average in the 50's. The NAM40 model run was
used for this forecast. Looking at the flow of the atmosphere through
GOES upper level water vapor imagery, NAM and GFS were performing
similarly; however, when analyzing sref and gefs plumes, gefs was
performing a lot colder than sref when temperatures were actually much
warmer.
Meridional flow dominates the 250-mb level with a ridge over the
western conus. This ridge moves over the Mississippi river valley
Tuesday, keeping conditions mild. Wednesday, upper level winds switch
from the South to the North, which will be the theme for most every
level.
Ridging is still visible at the 500-mb level Monday into Tuesday.
Tuesday evening, a LPS moves into the northern plains bringing large
scale circulation along with it. Wednesday, this circulation makes it's
way over Missouri, which gives suspicion to potential storms that could
arise.
Relative humidity is fairly high Monday morning but as the day goes
on, moisture seems to move out of the area, even as winds veer South.
The LPS over the northern plains is still present at this level and
pushes moisture into the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
A weakening warm front moves over the middle Mississippi river valley
on Monday, which is visible at the 850-mb level as winds veer to the
South. On Tuesday, a LLJ is present over the Mississippi river valley,
bring WAA along with it. This means warmer temperatures and moisture,
allowing for clouds to form ahead of a cold front that passes on
Wednesday. This also brings with it a chance for some light
precipitation amounting from around trace to .05". This frontal passage
is also visible at the surface as winds switch from the South to the
North on Wednesday. Skew-T shows clouds rolling in late Tuesday with
moisture building in ahead of the front, leading to light precipitation.
Temperatures do drop with frontal passage, but stay warm enough to
negate the chances for any winter weather.
-Cade
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