Monday, November 15, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Becoming partly cloudy. High: 62


Monday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 46


Mostly sunny. High: 73 


Tuesday Night:
  Becoming partly cloudy. Light sprinkle possible. 

Low: 56

Cloudy. Sprinkles possible late afternoon. High: 59


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Another warm glimpse before cooler temperatures take over. A light warm front will makes it way through the area today leaving behind southerly warm air and some high level clouds. Temperatures will warm to upper 60s to lower 70s with sunny conditions. Conditions will not stick around long before a cold front moves through Wednesday. Winter jackets and a possible rain jacket might be needed when going out on the town Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will not be cold enough for any winter precipitation, but some showers should not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Winds will then resume back to northerly with cooler and drier conditions sticking around through the end of the work week. 



Forecasters: Baker, Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 11/15/21 10:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

Once again, 2021 is bringing us above average temperatures for the time of the year! The beginning of the week will be warm with highs in the 60's and 70's. On Wednesday, a cold front will move through bringing temperatures back down to average in the 50's. The NAM40 model run was used for this forecast. Looking at the flow of the atmosphere through GOES upper level water vapor imagery, NAM and GFS were performing similarly; however, when analyzing sref and gefs plumes, gefs was performing a lot colder than sref when temperatures were actually much warmer. 

Meridional flow dominates the 250-mb level with a ridge over the western conus. This ridge moves over the Mississippi river valley Tuesday, keeping conditions mild. Wednesday, upper level winds switch from the South to the North, which will be the theme for most every level.

Ridging is still visible at the 500-mb level Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday evening, a LPS moves into the northern plains bringing large scale circulation along with it. Wednesday, this circulation makes it's way over Missouri, which gives suspicion to potential storms that could arise.

Relative humidity is fairly high Monday morning but as the day goes on, moisture seems to move out of the area, even as winds veer South. The LPS over the northern plains is still present at this level and pushes moisture into the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

A weakening warm front moves over the middle Mississippi river valley on Monday, which is visible at the 850-mb level as winds veer to the South. On Tuesday, a LLJ is present over the Mississippi river valley, bring WAA along with it. This means warmer temperatures and moisture, allowing for clouds to form ahead of a cold front that passes on Wednesday. This also brings with it a chance for some light precipitation amounting from around trace to .05". This frontal passage is also visible at the surface as winds switch from the South to the North on Wednesday. Skew-T shows clouds rolling in late Tuesday with moisture building in ahead of the front, leading to light precipitation. Temperatures do drop with frontal passage, but stay warm enough to negate the chances for any winter weather. 


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