Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Few high clouds, then clear. Low: 36

 

Saturday: Sunny. High: 61

 

Saturday Night: Few high clouds. Low: 43

 

Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High: 66

                  

Sunday Night:   Clear. Low: 46

 

 

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Discussion: 

Beautiful autumn days with mostly clear skies are in store for this weekend. A high-pressure system sits over the region keeping things calm.  Expect temperatures to climb steadily throughout the next few days and bring lovely mild conditions. This will be a great opportunity to spend some time outdoors and enjoy the sunshine.

- Ethridge

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Forecasters:

Date Issued: 11/05/21 05:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

The GFS and NAM models displayed relative consensus for the ridge forming over the central-to-eastern CONUS as well as possible temperature spreads on the ensembles. However, one area of interest which GFS detected more accurately was the small, negatively-titled trough in the Pacific Northwest. The NAM ignored this pattern for the most part, which led to the decision to utilize GFS as the main guide for the forecast.

The weekend will remain relatively calm as a fairly broad ridge moves its way over the central CONUS. The Mid-Mississippi River Valley is currently bearing witness to a minor ridge pattern, which will later become more amplified. As such, little-to-no divergence or circulation were detected on either the 250 or 500 hPa maps. The only exception is some minor vorticity taking place over Missouri as a result of a passing LPS to the north Saturday morning. However, southerly winds closer to the surface as a result of continuing high pressure will prevent significant cloud formation.

The primary focus for this weekend is the steady increase in temperature. This is largely due to decent amounts of WAA, encouraged by persistent southerly flow near the surface. This compares to northwesterly winds aloft at 250 hPa, which provides evidence for the existence of WAA. This was then confirmed with the veering wind profile on the 12Z sounding. The surface thickness map displayed well-defined solenoids over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, which is also indicative of WAA. This should result in increasingly warm conditions over the weekend.

- Millsap