Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Friday, March 22, 2019
Friday Night - Clouds start to increase. Low: 36-40.
Saturday - Cloudy with scattered showers possible in the evening. High: 57-61.
Saturday Night - Cloudy with scattered showers. Low: 48-52.
Sunday- Showers likely. High: 60-64.
Monday - Mostly Cloudy. High 48-52.
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Discussion:
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The sun and clear skies move out overnight allowing clouds to dominate this weekend. Rain possibility starts Saturday evening through this weekend. Warmer conditions this weekend will take a turn Sunday night to
below average temperatures to start the work week.
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Forecasters: Johnston, Rojas, Bongard, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., March 22, 2019
Model Diagnostics: The WPC has averaged preference on the blend of 12Z
GFS and 12Z ECMWF/UKMET for the closed low moving from the Central Plains on
Saturday to the East.
Concern of our forecast: Timing of showers this weekend and much cooler
temperatures to start the work week.
This evening a ridge will move southward putting us under high pressure. A longwave trough with a closed low imbedded will move toward us eroding the high pressure over us as the ridge moves toward the eastern CONUS. SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlook has us in the non-severe showers and thunderstorms region. However we don’t think we will get any thunderstorms. Sunday we will experience quasi-zonal flow over Missouri and Kansas with the jet core with 95 – 110 kts to our south in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The mean and spread ensemble product for CAPE values at 18 Z on Sunday show a contour of 300 J/kg +-200J/kg , so highly uncertainty for this value, the next time step the values decreases until disappear at 00Z. Although this values in this range of time 18Z-00Z are the most optimum for CAPE, there are not enough unstable conditions to support thunderstorms. Because for the 18Z at 500 mb we are out of the maximum vorticity, at 700mb a drier tongue is advancing to our area, the omega values are still positive. The following 3 hours, a filament of higher vorticity cross the area at 500mb but drier and no vertical motion at 700 mb will cancel conditions for more activity. The NAM and GFS soundings for the 18Z on Sunday disagree in the upper level saturation, NAM shows drier conditions and GFS indicates saturation above 600 mb. After that hour both soundings dry out the column, keeping saturation at the lower level. GFS compare with the ECMWF model tends to accelerate the advancement of the low pressure system which support the idea of not enough unstable condition at the moment of the system bring the maximum vorticity. Cold front moves through Sunday evening at 0Z to 3Z on 3/25 when the winds start shifting to the north on soundings. This will bring below average temperature to start the work week. Possible drizzle early Monday morning with soundings only moist near surface and dry above 800 mb. Total precipitation we expect through Monday is between 0.15 - 0.30 in.
This evening a ridge will move southward putting us under high pressure. A longwave trough with a closed low imbedded will move toward us eroding the high pressure over us as the ridge moves toward the eastern CONUS. SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlook has us in the non-severe showers and thunderstorms region. However we don’t think we will get any thunderstorms. Sunday we will experience quasi-zonal flow over Missouri and Kansas with the jet core with 95 – 110 kts to our south in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The mean and spread ensemble product for CAPE values at 18 Z on Sunday show a contour of 300 J/kg +-200J/kg , so highly uncertainty for this value, the next time step the values decreases until disappear at 00Z. Although this values in this range of time 18Z-00Z are the most optimum for CAPE, there are not enough unstable conditions to support thunderstorms. Because for the 18Z at 500 mb we are out of the maximum vorticity, at 700mb a drier tongue is advancing to our area, the omega values are still positive. The following 3 hours, a filament of higher vorticity cross the area at 500mb but drier and no vertical motion at 700 mb will cancel conditions for more activity. The NAM and GFS soundings for the 18Z on Sunday disagree in the upper level saturation, NAM shows drier conditions and GFS indicates saturation above 600 mb. After that hour both soundings dry out the column, keeping saturation at the lower level. GFS compare with the ECMWF model tends to accelerate the advancement of the low pressure system which support the idea of not enough unstable condition at the moment of the system bring the maximum vorticity. Cold front moves through Sunday evening at 0Z to 3Z on 3/25 when the winds start shifting to the north on soundings. This will bring below average temperature to start the work week. Possible drizzle early Monday morning with soundings only moist near surface and dry above 800 mb. Total precipitation we expect through Monday is between 0.15 - 0.30 in.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
Tonight - Clear. Low: 33-37
Friday - Sunny. High: 57-61
Friday Night - Clouds beginning to move in. Low: 34-38
Saturday - Sunny morning, cloudy evening. High: 59-62
Sunday- Scattered showers. High 58-62
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Discussion:
Sunny skies are back at last! Tonight will remain clear with temperatures staying above freezing. The high pressure that is hanging out over central Missouri will keep skies clear Friday with temperatures reaching up to around 60 degrees. Overnight Friday has clouds pushing into our forecast area with our winds coming from the southwest. This will keep our temperatures seasonal into the weekend. Clouds continue to build in over the course of Saturday as we begin to see low pressure moves into Missouri. The low settles into the Iowa/Missouri border on Sunday and will bring us chances of showers as those southwesterly winds pull in moisture from the Gulf. A cold front will sweep into Missouri Sunday evening.
Sunny skies are back at last! Tonight will remain clear with temperatures staying above freezing. The high pressure that is hanging out over central Missouri will keep skies clear Friday with temperatures reaching up to around 60 degrees. Overnight Friday has clouds pushing into our forecast area with our winds coming from the southwest. This will keep our temperatures seasonal into the weekend. Clouds continue to build in over the course of Saturday as we begin to see low pressure moves into Missouri. The low settles into the Iowa/Missouri border on Sunday and will bring us chances of showers as those southwesterly winds pull in moisture from the Gulf. A cold front will sweep into Missouri Sunday evening.
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Forecasters: Bongard, Doll, Munley, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., March 21, 2019
Thursday night looks to remain dry with clear skies. The forecast area is currently seeing northwest flow for the majority of the column as the region is wedged between a trough to the east and a ridge building to the west. Surface winds are a little breezy, sustained from 5-10 mph. Upper layer winds will stay strong as that ridge continues to move into the Midwest this weekend. Friday will continue to be dry due to the flow around the high pressure center to the northeast. Bands of vorticity will propagate into central Missouri Friday night in association with a low pressure system that will form over southern Kansas. Saturday is when the negatively tilted ridge will finally push into Missouri. The upper level winds will start to diminish as the ridge axis passes over central Missouri. The center of circulation for vorticity is around the low that will move across Kansas in a northeasterly fashion. Missouri will see the flow start to swing to the west as that low moves closer to us. The atmosphere is finally going to see some moisture build in as that high pressure system moves away and the southwesterly flow starts to bring moisture from the Gulf. This cyclonic system will bring rain for those in Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday. On Sunday this rain will move into Missouri with total accumulation predicted around half an inch. The bulk of the rain will be around the center of the low which will move through southern Nebraska and into the Iowa/Missouri border Sunday morning. This will only add to the flooding that Nebraska is currently seeing. For Missouri, Sunday will have our flow becoming more zonal and winds pick as the access of the trough swings into central Missouri. Vorticity will increase in correlation with the cyclone to our north. Lower level winds are still going to be out of the southwest which will continue to bring in moisture. This will allow for temperatures to stay seasonal and conditions Sunday evening will remain warm just before the cold front swings through.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Tonight - Clouds begin to clear. Low: 33-37
Thursday - Clear Skies. High: 50-54
Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 33-37
Friday - Clear skies throughout the day with clouds moving in overnight High: 54-58
Saturday- Mostly cloudy. High 58-62
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Discussion:
Calm and mild weather will be present throughout the forecast period. As a low pressure system moves off the the east, we will see the clouds beginning to clear behind it. Winds out of the north will help keep our temperatures in the lower 50's through Friday. There will be a slight warming trend as winds shift from northerly to southerly overnight Friday into Saturday. These southerly winds will be responsible for increasing moisture bringing clouds back into the forecast on Saturday. Overall we are in store for some nice spring weather.
Calm and mild weather will be present throughout the forecast period. As a low pressure system moves off the the east, we will see the clouds beginning to clear behind it. Winds out of the north will help keep our temperatures in the lower 50's through Friday. There will be a slight warming trend as winds shift from northerly to southerly overnight Friday into Saturday. These southerly winds will be responsible for increasing moisture bringing clouds back into the forecast on Saturday. Overall we are in store for some nice spring weather.
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Forecasters: Bongard, Sumrall, and Hirsch
Issued: 2:39 p.m., March 20, 2019
The narrow upper level ridge over the western Plains will keep the forecast area in its upstream flow tonight and tomorrow. Moisture values overhead will continue to slowly diminish over the course of Wednesday night as the atmosphere stabilizes. Low level winds will swing to a more northerly course after midnight in response to the frontal system pushing through the region. This system is associated with the low pressure embedded in the large upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS. These northerly winds will help dip temperatures into the mid 30's tonight.
Thursday morning will see the departure of any vorticity associated with the aforementioned low pressure system as the flow swing the boundaries in concern away from central Missouri. Skies will be clear Thursday with little moisture available overhead. Abundant sunshine and light northwesterlies will help temperatures climb again into the lower 50's for afternoon highs. Diurnal cooling and no insolation from cloud cover to speak of will push overnight lows back into the upper 30's before a carbon copy day repeats itself again Friday. Columbia will see a slow rise in both afternoon highs and overnight lows Thursday through Saturday before the next system abolishes persistence forecasting this week.
The narrow ridge bisecting the CONUS separates the exiting trough over New England and a vigorous trough digging into the Intermountain West Friday. This will lend to an extremely meridional flow aloft which will make progression of systems across the nation very slow. The axis of the ridge will not make its way into the Midwest before late Friday evening. The next weather maker for the region exists in the meandering trough to the west and will not make impact on the region before Saturday. This will start with low level winds veering to the south by daybreak Saturday. Model disagreement then exists as NAM moistens up the mid levels much quicker than its GFS counterpart. This can be directly correlated to much stronger wind speeds in the crucial low levels advertising more moisture advection for NAM than the GFS is willing to agree to at this point. While NAM dewpoint depression are much less precipitation at the surface is not anticipated before Saturday evening. Despite the lack of rainfall Saturday will see increasing clouds as the profile overhead fills in.
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Tonight - Skies remain cloudy, rain possible. Low: 41-45
Wednesday -Rain subsiding early morning, a mix of sun and clouds. High: 52-56
Wednesday Night - Clouds clearing out. Low: 42-46
Thursday - Clear skies. High: 46-58
Friday - Sunny. High 58-62
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Discussion:
Today has been a more dreary spring day here in Columbia. Mostly overcast skies dominated the region for most of the morning and afternoon hours and we even saw a few sprinkles of rain but otherwise, we have been staying dry. Our next possibility of rain comes as we head into the evening/overnight hours. The system that moves through we will experience light to moderate rain but only leave us with about .05" to .20" of total rainfall. This should not affect our rivers or streams with our current flooding issue. This system should not affect our temperatures and should move out by the morning tomorrow and we will clear up. The rest of the work week looks to be seasonal as we will see lots of sunshine and a warming trend as we head into the weekend with highs climbing into the 60's.
Today has been a more dreary spring day here in Columbia. Mostly overcast skies dominated the region for most of the morning and afternoon hours and we even saw a few sprinkles of rain but otherwise, we have been staying dry. Our next possibility of rain comes as we head into the evening/overnight hours. The system that moves through we will experience light to moderate rain but only leave us with about .05" to .20" of total rainfall. This should not affect our rivers or streams with our current flooding issue. This system should not affect our temperatures and should move out by the morning tomorrow and we will clear up. The rest of the work week looks to be seasonal as we will see lots of sunshine and a warming trend as we head into the weekend with highs climbing into the 60's.
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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m., March 19, 2019
With Spring officially beginning tomorrow, this forecast sure does show a Spring feel. The model choice for the forecast period is a blend of the 12Z GFS/NAM from the guidance of the WPC. The jet max is off to our south sitting over the southern plains and on its way into the Mississippi Valley. With that said, Columbia is on the edge of the left exit region of the jet streak and some areas of divergence passing through the area throughout the evening and into early morning tomorrow. The primary concern for this period is the possibility of rain. An upper-level low that ejected from a longwave trough in Canada is making its way from the north tracking south on the eastern side of the strong ridge that is out to our west. The shortwave trough is a positively tilted trough axis and does form into a mature open wave cyclone by the time it reaches us. As the system approaches us we will be affected by the warm front of this system first. With the effects of the warm front this will keep clouds around and lows in the lower 40s overnight. GFS model soundings are having a hard time with saturation throughout the column. The column does have a wind profile that does support WAA, moisture from 340mb to 785mb level and decent omega forcing and a dry layer from 785mb to the surface, if any rain was to fall it will be light in nature but moderate at times throughout the overnight hours.
Rain is expected to begin around 05Z Wednesday. On and off showers are expected throughout the early morning hours between 06Z and 11Z Wednesday. Rain totals are expected to reach anywhere from a .05" to .20". A cold frontal passage will come through the area at 09Z Wednesday, killing any moisture left in the atmosphere leaving us with a low cloud deck for part of the morning with a mix of sun and clouds during the day Wednesday with low-level moisture still hanging around.
Another cold front does move through the area again overnight Wednesday into Thursday clearing out the clouds from the area. A strong surface ridge will be moving toward us from our northwest behind the cold front. We will maintain more of a northerly wind component for Thursday and Friday which typically means cooler temperatures. Mid-Missouri will reach the mid-50s Thursday and upper 50s to low 60s Friday. Possibilities of rain returns for the weekend.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Monday Night - Skies becoming cloudy. Low: 32-36
Tuesday Morning - Cloudy skies. A stray afternoon shower is possible. High: 52-56
Tuesday Night - Cloudy skies with rain, especially after midnight. Breezy. Low: 42-46
Wednesday - Cloudy skies remain. High: 50-54
Thursday - Sunny. High 54-58
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Discussion:
Clouds will move in Monday night and will stick around for the remainder of our forecast period. Highs will remain seasonal in the mid 50s. We've entered a very early springlike pattern of rollercoaster temperatures, so dress warm in the morning, but shed those layers by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be our warmest day with Highs potentially reaching 56 degrees. Tuesday night rain is likely beginning after midnight, but diminishing before sunrise. Expect Wednesday to have winds calm down after the midnight storm as clouds willl clear throughout the day. A High-pressure system will move in on Thursday bringing sunshine.
Clouds will move in Monday night and will stick around for the remainder of our forecast period. Highs will remain seasonal in the mid 50s. We've entered a very early springlike pattern of rollercoaster temperatures, so dress warm in the morning, but shed those layers by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be our warmest day with Highs potentially reaching 56 degrees. Tuesday night rain is likely beginning after midnight, but diminishing before sunrise. Expect Wednesday to have winds calm down after the midnight storm as clouds willl clear throughout the day. A High-pressure system will move in on Thursday bringing sunshine.
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Forecasters: Danaher and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m., March 18, 2019
MOTD: Precipitation Tuesday Night.
Model Diagnostics: A general model blend of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC with above average confidence was chosen.
A shortwave trough on the east side of the conus continues to move as it will bring another jet ejecting from Canada into the Dakotas during Monday night. The vorticity will increase as it heads across South Dakota into Nebraska on Tuesday according to GFS models. Winds will switch from NW to W by tonight as we begin to enter the exit region of the jet. By Tuesday night, Missouri will feel the effects of a low-pressure system that deepened off of Kansas-Nebraska border. Vorticity at 500mb will range from 20-30 microbars/s from GFS model run, and GEFS shows CAPE will be below 50J/kg so it will not be a severe storm. The precipitation type is expected to be rain due to warm temperatures, and the amount is expected to be 1/10th - 1/20th of an inch. Winds during the night will be close to 30 - 40kts given GFS soundings as the LLJ amplifies during this time. The apex of the LLJ is just to our south and east where the heaviest rain is anticpated to fall.
As Wednesday approaches, GFS models shows dry air aloft and moisture at the surface. This means that we will have a stratus cloud cover. By Wednesday night everygthing will clear out. On Thursday, winds will switch to Northerly as a High-pressure system sets in.
Monday - Mostly clear skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 50-54
Monday Night - Skies becoming cloudy. Low: 32-36
Tuesday - Cloudy skies. A stray afternoon shower is possible. High: 52-56
Tuesday Night - Cloudy skies with rain, especially after midnight. Breezy. Low: 42-46
Wednesday - Cloudy skies remain. Drizzle persisting into morning, ending before noon. High: 50-54
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Discussion:
Enjoy the remainder of the sunny skies that mid-Missouri saw this past weekend, because they will not be sticking around. Clouds will move in Monday night and will stick around for the remainder of our forecast period. Highs will remain seasonal in the mid 50s. We've entered a very early springlike pattern of rollercoaster temperatures, so dress warm in the morning, but shed those layers by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be our warmest day with Highs potentially reaching 56 degrees. Tuesday night rain is likely beginning after midnight, but diminishing before sunrise with the potential for drizzles into the Wednesday morning commute.
Enjoy the remainder of the sunny skies that mid-Missouri saw this past weekend, because they will not be sticking around. Clouds will move in Monday night and will stick around for the remainder of our forecast period. Highs will remain seasonal in the mid 50s. We've entered a very early springlike pattern of rollercoaster temperatures, so dress warm in the morning, but shed those layers by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be our warmest day with Highs potentially reaching 56 degrees. Tuesday night rain is likely beginning after midnight, but diminishing before sunrise with the potential for drizzles into the Wednesday morning commute.
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Forecasters: Ritter and Travis
Issued: 10:00 a.m., March 18, 2019
Pleasant weather from this weekend will persist through the day today. Columbia continues to reside in an area of high pressure centered over Nebraska, which is causing such pleasant weather. This high pressure center will drift southeast through northern Missouri throughout the day today, keeping our weather calm. As we move through the day today, however, Columbia will begin to feel the effects of Tuesday Night's system. GFS Skew-Ts show moistening in the column between 250 and 400 hPa. While this layer does not look to be completely saturated, there does look to be enough moisture present to produce some high clouds during the afternoon. Moving into tonight, GFS Skew-Ts show the moist layer in the column deepening down to 700 hPa with complete saturation between 250 and 300 hPa and between 500 and 550 hPa by 12Z Tuesday; therefore, Columbia should have completely overcast skies by this time. Progressing through the day Tuesday, cloudy skies will persist. There may also be a stray shower or two during the afternoon and evening Tuesday, although GFS Skew-Ts show a thick dry layer between 850 hPa and the surface, and there will be very little lift in column during this period.
The main story of this forecast has to do with Tuesday Night's system. Between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday, the GFS advertises a 110-kt 250 hPa jet core will move through the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, putting Columbia close to the left exit region of the jet streak. As would be expected, several areas of divergence will pass over mid-Missouri during this period. A positively-tilted 500 hPa shortwave trough and associated vort max will also be dropping south toward Missouri from the Northern Plains. As this shortwave progresses toward Columbia, moisture and lift will be maximized at 700 hPa, especially between 06Z and 12Z. A 40-kt LLJ at 850 hPa will also aid in moisture transport between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday. The only question with this system is moisture at the surface. GFS Skew-Ts show a dry layer between 850 hPa and the surface through 06Z Wednesday, with the 09Z Wednesday Skew-T showing saturation through to the surface. With this being said, we cannot rule out a stray rain shower or two as early as 21Z Tuesday, so we have mentioned at least a possibility of rain beginning Tuesday afternoon, becoming likely after 06Z Wednesday when the column moistens all the way to the surface. Precipitation amounts from this system will not be very large, as the SREF QPF ensemble mean is around 0.25" and the operational GFS goes with around 0.20".
By 12Z Wednesday, GFS Skew-Ts show no lift in the column, and a large dry layer begins to develop between 500 and 850 hPa, but a moist layer remains between 850 hPa and the surface. This moist layer will persist through about 18Z, even as the column above it dries out. Finally, by 21Z, the moist layer between 850 hPa and the surface will begin to dry out, starting at the surface, and by 00Z Thursday, the layer should be dry. With this said, our forecast calls for low clouds and possible drizzle before 18Z Wednesday, with low clouds beginning to break up by 00Z Thursday.
As for temperatures, highs throughout the period should be roughly similar each day, with highs in the 50s. If anything, Tuesday would be the warmest day of the period due to WAA during the afternoon, as evidenced by a veering wind profile with height in GFS Skew-Ts. Lows overnight tonight will be in the 30s, but lows overnight Tuesday into Wednesday should be in the 40s due to the aforementioned WAA.
Friday, March 15, 2019
Friday Night - Clear. Low: 28-32.
Saturday - Sunny. High: 50-54.
Saturday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 30-34.
Sunday - Mostly Sunny. High: 49-53.
Monday - Mostly Sunny. High: 48-52.
Discussion:
The winds should calm down this evening. Leaving a beautiful sunny weekend to enjoy and get things done outside. The temperatures will be similar and a little warmer then today. The nights mostly without cloud cover will be cold and leave temperatures below freezing.
The winds should calm down this evening. Leaving a beautiful sunny weekend to enjoy and get things done outside. The temperatures will be similar and a little warmer then today. The nights mostly without cloud cover will be cold and leave temperatures below freezing.
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Forecasters: Johnston, Rojas, and Summrall
Issued: 4:30 p.m., March 15, 2019
For the following analysis the model we used was GFS as the model discussion suggested it. Starting at the upper level, the jet stream remains east and southeast from us for the following days with a confluent zone to our west. By Saturday morning the axis of the trough will be northeast of the CONUS, putting Missouri in the upstream side of it, this will support the high pressure system at surface which persist during the weekend and into Monday. The anticyclonic rotation will drive the wind direction during the weekend over the area. The windy conditions will ease up this evening due to the decrease in pressure gradient force as the trough pushes further into the eastern CONUS. Soundings show that we currently have northwesterly flow near the surface through 15Z Saturday when it shifts to the west. By OZ Sunday the wind below 850 mb has shifted to southwesterly. Monday at 6Z the wind below 900 mb has shifted to the northerly again. The winds remain northerly and northwesterly the rest of our forecast. And Sunday morning, a cold front will cross the area reducing the maximum temperatures. The soundings remain really dry for in the entire column of the atmosphere for this forecast.
Thursday, March 14, 2019
Thursday Night - Mostly cloudy with a good chance for showers. Low 32-36.
Friday - Partly Cloudy. High 42-46
Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 28-32
Saturday - Sunny. High: 48-52.
Sunday - Partly Cloudy. High: 50-54
Discussion:
Hold onto your hats because today has been a breezy one! We are under a high wind advisory until 7:00CST tonight. We expect to see winds die down into tomorrow as the center of low pressure that is currently to our north moves farther east. Overnight we do have the possibility for a few showers but we aren't expecting to see any snowfall as surface temps are staying above freezing. Tomorrow looks to be a bit chillier than what we saw today as our winds shift to the northwest bringing in that colder air. Tomorrow night we find ourselves wedged between two systems, a high pressure system over northwest Texas and that low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes. This will cause us to have strong winds Friday night and keep our flow out of the northwest. This will continue to drive in those colder temperatures into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look to remain dry as we fall under the influence of the high pressure system that will settle over Arkansas.
Hold onto your hats because today has been a breezy one! We are under a high wind advisory until 7:00CST tonight. We expect to see winds die down into tomorrow as the center of low pressure that is currently to our north moves farther east. Overnight we do have the possibility for a few showers but we aren't expecting to see any snowfall as surface temps are staying above freezing. Tomorrow looks to be a bit chillier than what we saw today as our winds shift to the northwest bringing in that colder air. Tomorrow night we find ourselves wedged between two systems, a high pressure system over northwest Texas and that low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes. This will cause us to have strong winds Friday night and keep our flow out of the northwest. This will continue to drive in those colder temperatures into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look to remain dry as we fall under the influence of the high pressure system that will settle over Arkansas.
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Forecasters: Doll, Meyers, and Bongard
Issued: 4:11 p.m., March 14, 2019
Smooth sailing ahead this coming weekend with spring knocking right on the front door. Currently we find ourselves in a high wind advisory until 7:00CST as we sit on the south side of a low pressure system slowly moving over central Iowa. In terms of model agreement both GFS and NAM has the system keeping on the same track moving northeasterly into Wisconsin overnight. The back side of this system brings the cold conveyor belt as well as colder temperatures and possible precipitation. With sounding comparisons, GFS keeps the surface-lower levels dry with a saturated level right above that around 850mb while NAM has us more saturated from 800mb-700mb and brings us snow overnight. We don't see the lower-surface levels getting cold enough for it to stay snow to the ground however we do agree with NAM on the system getting deep enough to reach us all the way from Wisconsin.
Friday brings a lot of cold air advection throughout the day from the northwest keeping temps low and the atmosphere dry through the mid-lower levels. A high pressure system sitting over northwest Texas and a low pressure system above us over the Great Lakes keeps us sandwiched right in between the two systems. This gives us strong winds and cold air from the northwest. At the 250mb level, we see an incoming ridge over Montana that combines with the Tropic Jet and gives us confluence and a jet max over Oklahoma. The post frontal regime will be evident throughout the majority of Friday until officially moving out Friday night keeping conditions clear and cold.
Saturday keeps the same pattern with the flow at 250mb continuing east at a steady pace throughout the day. We do see a band of vorticity to our north through Minnesota with the outgoing trough but we remain in the clear at 500mb. Looking at the GFS model, we remain mostly dry through the low-mid levels. Comparing sounding models however, GFS keeps us in a more zonal flow through later Saturday night while NAM swings our winds to the south at the lower levels and keeps us a bit more moist. At the 700mb level for NAM, it showed Missouri receiving moisture from the northern trough bringing possible cloud cover but no precipitation. We decided to lean more towards the GFS model as we didn't see a solid source for the incoming moisture.
Sunday remains mostly the same with the flow at 250mb still continuing east. Vorticity at 500mb creeps closer to mid Missouri but only reaches southern Iowa. We do get a bit more moist at the 700mb level from some northwesterly flow but remain stable throughout the rest of the levels. The high pressure system we've seen all weekend retreats back south a bit over southwestern Arkansas. Looking at possible surface temps we do see a decent boundary starting in northeastern Illinois that extends all the way to southwest Missouri. This is due to the trough to our north shifting our winds from the south in the morning to northeasterly in the afternoon. This will keep our temps low with minimal cloud cover.
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Wednesday Night - Windy. Afternoon showers ending, clearing skies overnight. Low 48-52.
Thursday - Clouds increasing throughout the day. Windy. High 50-54
Thursday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low 32-36.
Friday - Clouds clearing in the afternoon becoming mostly sunny. High 42-46.
Saturday - Sunny. High: 46-50.
Discussion:
We are under a wind advisory until 7 pm tonight and it is likely this will be extended through tomorrow as our winds will strengthen ahead of the cold front moving through the area tomorrow night. For the rest of the afternoon and evening we can expect showers with a rumble of thunder possible. These showers should clear out in the overnight areas as some of the moisture begins to dry out. Low level moisture will provide clouds throughout most of the day but due to strong winds these clouds will be moving fast and could break up and let some sunshine through. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the cold front but will drop back to around freezing Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Behind the front the atmosphere will begin to dry out and we will see clouds clearing throughout the day Friday leaving mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Sunshine will linger for the rest of the forecast period and it will continue to feel like spring.
We are under a wind advisory until 7 pm tonight and it is likely this will be extended through tomorrow as our winds will strengthen ahead of the cold front moving through the area tomorrow night. For the rest of the afternoon and evening we can expect showers with a rumble of thunder possible. These showers should clear out in the overnight areas as some of the moisture begins to dry out. Low level moisture will provide clouds throughout most of the day but due to strong winds these clouds will be moving fast and could break up and let some sunshine through. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the cold front but will drop back to around freezing Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Behind the front the atmosphere will begin to dry out and we will see clouds clearing throughout the day Friday leaving mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Sunshine will linger for the rest of the forecast period and it will continue to feel like spring.
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Forecasters: Bongard and Sumrall
Issued: 2:49 p.m., March 13, 2019
Rain this afternoon will quickly come to an end by 00Z Wednesday evening as the main precipitation shield associated with the large developing low pressure system over the central Plains pushes east of Columbia and dry slotting fills into the region from the southwest. The main weather feature for tonight and tomorrow morning will be the high winds that impact central Missouri. As the low pressure system spills off the Front Range and across Kansas this evening a tightly packed pressure gradient surrounding a 970 mb low will slide into the region from the west-southwest promoting surface winds of 20-25 knots with higher gusts. For this reason NWS has issued a Wind Advisory through this evening with a High Wind Watch set to go into effect Thursday morning. Overnight lows will only fall back into the low 50's in response to warm air advection on strong southwesterly winds overnight.
Thursday will be a mostly cloudy, windy day as mid levels provide sufficient provide sufficient moisture for cloud development. Forcing will be in place out ahead of the cold front pushing through the Plains during the day but with so much dry slotting happening in the column precipitation will be hard to come by. Continued strong southwesterly flow in the low levels accompanied by the aforementioned clouds will keep high's Thursday in the low 50's. Model sounding analysis is in agreement on an early evening fropa when winds back around to the west-northwest and begin to drop temperatures back in to the 30's. Model disagreement does exist however in a chance for precipitation early Friday morning when NAM promotes some wrap around moisture filling into the profile creating snow flurries for central Missouri. GFS is less aggressive with this moisture and holds a dry layer at the surface. Regardless of model the atmosphere overhead will "de-saturate" by mid morning as a post frontal weather regime fills into the Midwest. High temperatures Friday will struggle into the mid 40's as skies clear out in the afternoon.
Low temperatures and lighter northwesterly winds Friday night as the post frontal regime continues. A meandering high pressure system trekking slowly across the southern Plains will keep our low level flow northwesterly as it presents its northeastern flank to us overnight Friday. Models disagree on placement of this high Saturday leading to some disagreement with moisture and temperatures in central Missouri. GFS continues the eastward trek of the high into the Lower Mississippi Valley keeping the profile dry and temperatures into the upper 40's. NAM however retrogrades the high southward and allows some moisture to infiltrate the Midwest from the northwest. This will lead to a more cloudy, slightly colder day Saturday with its high temperatures for central Missouri only in the low 40's. Will need to consult future model runs to tack down a better idea of temperatures for the region Saturday afternoon.
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