Monday, September 30, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 68-72

Tuesday - Partly sunny. High: 86-90

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 68-72


Wednesday - Scattered morning showers. Cloudy High: 84-88

Thursday - Clouds clearing out, with high clouds remaining.   High: 64-68

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Monday night we'll see high clouds with warmer temperatures for the low. Moving into Tuesday afternoon, we will have some passing high clouds and another warm day with temperatures in the upper 80's to 90. Tuesday night, we will see more clouds moving into our area with lows in the upper 60's. We have the possibility for scattered morning showers on Wednesday, giving way to clouds in the afternoon; and highs in the mid-to-upper 80's. Finally on Thursday, we will see low clouds clearing out with high clouds remaining. Temperatures will be cooler than we have had in the beginning of the week as well, with the high being in the mid-to-upper 60's.
Forecasters: Hatch, Munley, Travis, Heaven
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; September 30,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Current WPC Guidance indicates rather poor resolution by the NAM and CMC currently, with the GFS being rather weak later in the week.  Given this, we will be using the GFS, with supplemental temperatures from the SREF. 

Monday night will see high clouds over the area, with temperatures remaining around 70 for the low.  Tuesday will see much higher than average temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures once again approaching 90 degrees.  Weak WAA will be in place ahead of a surface low off to our west.  Wednesday during the day will see an odd setup, with a cold front draped off a surface low based in Michigan up to our north early Wednesday morning.  This cold front will take its time to pass overhead, with frontal passage not expected until late Wednesday night.  Another surface low based in Western Kansas will travel along the cold front passing overhead, significantly slowing the cold front in the process. There is very poor agreement on rainfall totals during the day Wednesday, with models varying anywhere between no rain and an inch.  Rain is expected to be about .2 inches, given SREF and GEFS ensembles.  This rainfall amount may still vary drastically, as FROPA timing is crucial to the amount of rain we get.  The story for temperature on Wednesday is very similar, in that it is very dependent on frontal passage timing.  Thursday will start to see CAA into the area, bringing highs out of the 80s for the first time in seemingly weeks.  The current expected high on Thursday is a rather cool mid to upper 60s.  High clouds will stay in place Thursday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 86-90

Monday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 66-70

Tuesday - Partly sunny. High: 86-90

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 69-72

Wednesday - Scattered morning showers. Cloudy High: 82-86

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A stationary front passed through this weekend bringing rain. This persisted into a warm front that traveled north of Mid-Missouri leaving us with warmer and more humid conditions. A high pressure system off to the SE dominates our weather and will continue to do so for the beginning of the work week. Due to this, we will be seeing clearer conditions and winds out of the south which will fuel warmer temperatures. High temperatures will be almost 20 degrees above average nearing 90 for Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures will also be well above average each night. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning presents an approaching cold front that will bring cloud cover and scattered showers beginning around sunrise and not persisting into the afternoon. A cool down may occur after the front has completely passed in the latter part of the week.
Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; September 30,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Over the weekend a warm front moved through the area that brought along with it rain Saturday night. After this FROPA, conditions from 12Z Monday till about 18Z Tuesday look to be dominated by a high pressure over the southern US. This will proceed to give us southerly flow with the humidity being felt. Winds are out of the south until about 500 mb where they take a SW shift. Temperatures will be almost 20 degrees above normal for these few days and overnight lows won't be any better. Clouds will start to increase ahead of a cold front that will stall across the region on Wednesday. With the moisture out ahead of this approaching system, rain looks like. GFS skew Ts quickly saturate in the lowest level from 06-09Z on the second indicating rain. From 09Z till about 15Z, rain is expected fall. There is ample moisture while omega struggles to be overly impressive with values around -5 mb/s between 850-700 mb. This shallow depth and dry period along with QPF values around .1" indicate a weak morning event. However, if the system progresses faster or moves more directly over central MO, we could expect more rain. This is something future forecasters should watch. The front stalls over MO keeping clouds in the forecast and cooler than earlier this week but there is a chance for rain again overnight that is just outside our time zone.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Becoming Cloudy. Thunderstorms likely after sunset. Low: 69-73

Saturday - Cloudy skies. Scattered showers possible throughout the
day then, scattered thunderstorms possible in the evening. High: 80-84
Saturday Night - Cloudy. Rain continuing overnight. Low: 69-73

Sunday - Mostly cloudy. Showers ending in the morning. High: 82-86


Monday - Partly cloudy. High: 86-90

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We will get another cloudy weekend ahead of us with the possibility of scattered showers and thundershowers.  Friday and Saturday we expect thundershowers in the evening with cloudy skies and scattered showers throughout the day on Saturday.  The overcast skies will drive lower temperatures on Saturday as we expect a High of 80-84 degrees.  Our temperatures will increase on Sunday by approximately 10 degrees as we expect less widespread rain.  Cloudy skies persist into Monday and the maximum expected temperature for the start of the week is 90 degrees. 
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Taylor, Heaven, Travis, Hirsch
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; September 27,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Another active weekend has setup across mid-Missouri. Chances of rain will linger until until Saturday night into Sunday morning. With it will come the threat of strong to severe convection both Friday night and Saturday night.

RAP analysis of the last 24 hours keeps the upper level jet max well to our north at 250 hPa. A large longwave trough is currently parked over the Pacific northwest while a ridge remains off to the east according to analysis of RAP 500-hPa heights and vorticity. This puts Columbia southwesterly flow aloft and at the lower levels. The GFS has increased divergence aloft at 250 hPa following the general flow from the southwest. Stepping down to 500 hPa, the GFS shows a suspicious lack of any disturbance in the height field, and a lack of a distinct vorticity maximum. The atmosphere is thermodynamically prime for ensuing convection. GFS soundings for Friday afternoon into Friday evening show SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/Kg, gradually decreasing as thunderstorms roll in around 03z. 0-6km shear is on the high side (19 m/s) according to GFS soundings. This will produce a more linear line of thunderstorms that progress through the region. Looking at CAMs, the 18z HRRR had the MCS moving north of I-70 and the 19z even further north. If current trend continues, Columbia itself may be clipped by rain while the bulk of the thunderstorm activity stays off to the north. While this system Friday night looks impressive thermodynamically speaking, it lacks impressive dynamic support. At 250 hPa, the GFS keeps the jet stream well off to the north in the Upper Midwest. Prognostics of 500-hPa height and vorticity does not show any distinct disturbance moving through the state. A small vorticity maximum does move through northern Missouri overnight probably indicative of present convection. At 850 hPa is where things look interesting. The LLJ is roaring from the southwest at 40-50 kts and has been for the past 12 hours according to RAP. This has been responsible for the rapid moisture and warm advection. This is about the extent of the dynamic support that this system has.

Into Saturday morning, both the HRRR and 3k NAM want lingering showers persisting into the daylight hours gradually tapering off as the day progresses. Interesting, the HRRR hints at mid-Missouri seeing some partial clearing into the afternoon. If Columbia does see sunlight, daytime highs may be able to creep higher than anticipated. The HRRR does want some discrete cells popping up out ahead of the line closer to Kansas City at 22z so not out of the question to see some afternoon storms fire.

By Saturday night GFS soundings indicate a saturated column throughout the night. Rain will likely continue into early Sunday morning, and taper off shortly after sunrise. Though the cold front should make it past, it will quickly lift back as a warm front as winds shift from the southwest once again. This will result in a gradual warming trend Sunday into Monday. The GFS 500 hPa does not favor much break down of the ridge to our east, or progression of the trough to our west. Highs will continue be unseasonably hot for late September and early October.

Friday - Increasing clouds with showers possible in the afternoon.  High: 80-84

Friday Night - Mostly cloudy with possible showers.          
Low: 66-70

  Saturday - Mostly cloudy with showers. 
High: 80-84

Saturday Night - Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.  Low: 71-73

Sunday - Partly cloudy with morning showers .
High: 84-88

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Currently a cold front is stalled over Iowa which sparked a few thunderstorms over northern Missouri into Illinois early this morning. This cold front will be the cause of storms that will move into our area later Friday night into Saturday. Heavy rainfall accumulations are not expected. Areas north of I-70 can expect to experience the most rainfall from this system. Saturday night some of these thunderstorms could be strong. By Sunday the rain should clear out and clouds should break up making for a mostly clear afternoon. Overall rainfall for the weekend will be between a quarter and a half inch.
Forecasters:   Taylor, Est   Lead Forecaster: Steward
Issued:  10:30 a.m. ; September 27,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

00Z NAM40 km chart analysis is showing a primarily zonal pattern at the 300mb level with a jet max within the base of the trough. On the 500mb level, vorticity couplets can be seen extending from the Southeastern CONUS through the Great Lakes area. The 700mb level is reflecting the 500mb level well, with increased moisture and a minor short wave trough upstream of the station. The 850/925mb level is showing moist air advection to the south of the station and is continuing to stack with the upper levels. TA high pressure system in the south eastern United States is causing moist air advection and increasing instability to push into the area, supported by the increasing gradient between the cP and mT air masses as seen on the NAM Theta-E products. 

00Z GFS model were showing a tenth of an inch precipitation through the current period, however no sensors around the region have reported precipitation as the Model solution continues to be overly aggressive. The NAM has continued to be show the boundary stalling north for multiple model runs and thus was the model of choice moving forward.

Fridays influence of the high pressure ridging will keep the boundary at bay concurring with the NAM solution.  Brief periods of showers will however move through, but will mostly manifest to the north.  Higher resolution modeling shows a few showers breaking through the wall of subsidence, but will be few and far between for any appreciable accumulations.

Saturday NAM guidance shows an increase in instability as the ridging dissipates and southerly flow increases with strengthening pressure gradient and moisture transport. This will coincidentally increase chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day Saturday with CAPEs approaching 2000J/kg
and linear wind shear with speeds increasing with height.   Storms are not anticipated to be severe with backing in the mid levels.  Saturday night shows the boundary moving through the area bringing with it the highest chance for Thunderstorms.  Exact timing of the boundary has been the most challenging part of the forecast. These are not expected to be severe as we will loose most of the instability after sunset.

Sunday, lingering showers will dissipate following the post frontal subsidence as well as clearing clouds.  Still a bit shaky on the QPF totals for the weekend, but a generous solution of a quarter to a half of inch seems reasonable for the period.

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Thursday Night- Clouds roll in, partly Cloudy. Low: 63-67

Friday - AM clouds/PM of rain showers. High: 80-84


Friday Night - Clouds with a possibility of showers. Low: 66-70


Saturday Periods of rain.  High: 80-84

Sunday - Periods of rain. High: 84-88

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Cloud cover will move into Columbia over the course of the evening hours with a low temperature in the mid 60's. Friday morning cloud cover will persist and turn into showers in the afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 80's. Overnight conditions will persist and showers will continue, with lows in the upper 60's. On Saturday rain will move into Columbia with isolated thunderstorms, highs will be in the low 80's. Sunday will see a continuation of Saturday's conditions with highs in the mid 80's.
Forecasters:   Owens, Lead Forecaster: Bongard
Issued:  05:00 p.m. ; September 26,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
12Z chart analysis is showing a primarily zonal pattern at the 300mb level with a jet max entering the base of the trough, which will cause it to deepen. On the 500mb level, there is a ridge to the south of the station causing moist air advection and instability to push into the AOR, with an area of low pressure over the California/Mexico border, aiding in the process. The 700mb level is reflecting the 500mb level well, only with increased moisture and a minor short wave trough upstream of the station. The 850/925mb level is showing moist air advection to the south of the station and is continuing to stack with the upper levels.

On Thursday high pressure is dominating the AOR causing clear/blue and 22 conditions. As moist air advection continues to spill over the ridge to the south of the station, cloud cover will increase in the low and into the mid-levels. This will continue into Friday until the evening time frame, as the ridge continues to build.

The NAM and the GFS are in conflict about where the precipitation will develop, with the NAM keeping the bulk of the precip to the north of the station. Due to this discrepancy, the model of choice for this time frame is the SREF and HREF. The SREF is currently showing a 30% prop on the 3-hr TS product and the HREF showing probs of 90% about 16Z. The SREF also shows LI values of -4 (MDT), and 90% prob of CAPE GT 1000 (MDT), Ref: AFWA TN 98-002, Table 3-2 pg 3-15. The HREF, in turn, is showing that the highest probability of precip is at 03Z on Saturday with 3 and 6 hour probabilities supporting this. Whist these indices diminish overnight, they do return during the daytime hours on Saturday and Sunday.

Thursday - Mostly Sunny. High: 74-78

Thursday Night- Clouds roll in, partly Cloudy. Low: 63-67

Friday - AM clouds/PM of rain. High: 84-88

Friday Night - Clouds with a possibility of showers. Low: 64-68

Saturday - Periods of rain.  High: 78-82

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Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70's. As we move into the overnight, clouds will be moving in giving us partly cloudy sky conditions with lows in the mid 60's. The clouds will continue into Friday with PM showers possible, highs will be in the uppers 80's.  Friday night the clouds there will be a possibility of showers with lows in the mid 60's. Saturday will have scattered rain with highs in the upper 70's/ low 80's.
Forecasters:   Farr, Gallahan, Savoy, Pauley, and Munley
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; September 26,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This morning the WPC recommends the 12Z ECMWF and GEFS ensembles but we are using the GFS and the GEFS ensembles for this forecast shift.  

We start off Thursday morning with a few passer-by high clouds.  Today will be another nice day weather wise for Mizzou with temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s 06Z GFS deterministic soundings do indicate some clearing throughout the day but a but do maintain some upper level moisture to give us high clouds throughout the day as well.  A high pressure system that is centered over the Nebraska/Kansas/Missouri boarder will be passing through the area today but will also bring us the nice weather we will see today as well  High pressure moves off to the east during the day today.  Overnight tonight a wind shift will move to more of a southerly/southwesterly direction will occur later this afternoon/early evening.  With the LLJ overhead and wind speeds at 30-40kts at times at 850mb does indicate a breezy night tonight and during the day tomorrow as well, winds at 10-15mph overnight and gusting as high as 25mph.  A warm front will ramp up our temperatures around the area for Friday and could top out in the mid to upper 80s and provide warm air advection through the column for most of the day.  Instability is epected to build ahead of a cold front will be moving through the area Friday afternoon.  The combination of the cold front and a upper level short wave, instability is expected to increase throughout the day could us CAPE values ranging from 2500-3300 J/kg.  The concern for any severe weather is still uncertain, cloud cover may be a concern for tomorrow that could inhibit an severe weather but showers and storms are expected to form over the area tomorrow during the late afternoon/early evening hours, any severe potential is for hail and damaging straight line winds.  The aforementioned cold front passes through it is expected to slow and almost stall over Mid-Missouri, giving us the possibility for scattered rain all day Saturday. 

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 57-61

Thursday - Mostly Clear. High: 74-78

  Thursday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 63-67

Friday - Clouds building in, with rain in the evening.  High: 84-88

Saturday - Mostly Cloudy with rain.  High: 80-84

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Wednesday night will see temperature dropping to near normal values, with a low expected in the upper 50s.  Thursday will see mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid 70s.  Friday, a cold front pass over Columbia in the early evening, bringing storms with it.  Temperatures will rise to unseasonably warm values during the day.  Saturday will see rain for most of the day.
Forecasters:   Heaven, Munley, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; September 25,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Guidance indicates the GFS is to be heavily favored in a forecast, and as such the GFS is the model of choice for this forecast, along with 15Z SREF for supplemental temperature forecasting. 

Tonight will see partly cloudy skies, as 12Z GFS soundings indicate a ~50-100mb moist layer sandwiched between two significant dry layers.  There does seem to be the possibility for virga from these soundings, however this is not expected to be visible, as the strongest indication for this is after dark.  Temperatures on Wednesday night are expected to be the lowest of the week, with a forecast of the upper 50s.  Previous SREF runs had significant disagreement among members about the low temperatures, however now there seems to be fairly good agreement of temperatures being in the 50s, with most trending around the upper 50s.  Thursday will see the surface high over Kansas trek overhead and off to our east.  This surface high will set up WAA once it has passed overhead in the afternoon on Thursday.  This WAA will be in place through Friday, and thus the significant increase in temperatures on Friday.  Thursday night will be quite nice, with clear skies and a mid 60s temperature.  WAA will continue into Friday, as temperatures will continue to climb through the day ahead of a cold front.  As temperatures rise, cloud cover will also begin to increase.  Cold frontal passage is expected Friday afternoon, along with a linear system.  Severe conditions are not expected at this time, as shear does not indicate discrete modes, and DCAPE values are around 600.  After the cold front passes, it will soon begin to stall and rotate to become more zonal.  The cold front will transition to a warm front, and pass over us again Saturday, although it will be quite slow to do so.  This fronts evolution will be the main cause of our rain all day Saturday.  Storms are not expected, with significant caps on all soundings, along with minimal upward motion.  A rumble of thunder is not out of the question, however they will be few and far between.