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Monday night we'll see high clouds with warmer temperatures for the low. Moving into Tuesday afternoon, we will have some passing high clouds and another warm day with temperatures in the upper 80's to 90. Tuesday night, we will see more clouds moving into our area with lows in the upper 60's. We have the possibility for scattered morning showers on Wednesday, giving way to clouds in the afternoon; and highs in the mid-to-upper 80's. Finally on Thursday, we will see low clouds clearing out with high clouds remaining. Temperatures will be cooler than we have had in the beginning of the week as well, with the high being in the mid-to-upper 60's.
Forecasters: Hatch, Munley, Travis, Heaven
Issued: 5:00 p.m. ; September 30, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Current WPC Guidance indicates rather poor resolution by the NAM and CMC currently, with the GFS being rather weak later in the week. Given this, we will be using the GFS, with supplemental temperatures from the SREF.
Monday night will see high clouds over the area, with temperatures remaining around 70 for the low. Tuesday will see much higher than average temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures once again approaching 90 degrees. Weak WAA will be in place ahead of a surface low off to our west. Wednesday during the day will see an odd setup, with a cold front draped off a surface low based in Michigan up to our north early Wednesday morning. This cold front will take its time to pass overhead, with frontal passage not expected until late Wednesday night. Another surface low based in Western Kansas will travel along the cold front passing overhead, significantly slowing the cold front in the process. There is very poor agreement on rainfall totals during the day Wednesday, with models varying anywhere between no rain and an inch. Rain is expected to be about .2 inches, given SREF and GEFS ensembles. This rainfall amount may still vary drastically, as FROPA timing is crucial to the amount of rain we get. The story for temperature on Wednesday is very similar, in that it is very dependent on frontal passage timing. Thursday will start to see CAA into the area, bringing highs out of the 80s for the first time in seemingly weeks. The current expected high on Thursday is a rather cool mid to upper 60s. High clouds will stay in place Thursday.