Friday, October 30, 2020

 

                                                              Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 


Friday Night
- Clear. Low: 38-42


Saturday
-
Clear skies. High: 62-66


Saturday Night -
Brief partly cloudiness. Then becoming clear. Low: 36-40


Sunday -
Clear. High: 46-50


Monday -
Clear skies. High: 56-60
 
 
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Discussion: 
Friday night will bring clear skies and seasonal temperatures compared to Friday morning's winter-like lows. Clear skies persist into Saturday with temperatures warming into the mid 60s, creating perfect conditions for Halloween festivities. Brief cloudiness and cooler temperatures will move in Saturday night with the passage of a cold front around 10pm. Sunday, skies clear out and temperatures will return to near average for early November. Clear skies continue into Monday as temperatures return to above average.
 
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Forecaster: Orr, Travis
Issued:  5:30 PM CDT 30 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
Clear and pleasant weather will persist for the duration of the forecast period. The main issue is tracking a dry cold front that will pass late Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to near average. Good consensus between the GFS and NAM meant that a blend of the two was used alongside consultation with the GEFS and SREF ensembles for temperatures. 

The cutoff, upper-level low that plagued the western CONUS has since deamplified and has moved off to the northeast according to RAP analysis of 250 hPa. Missouri currently sits in the rear inflection point between a broad upper-level ridge to the west, and a longwave to the east. With the exiting longwave, Missouri sits in the right exit region of the associated jet streak indicating DVM dominates the column. This is backed up by the crystal clear skies that the entire state of Missouri is experiencing as shown by the GOES visible band. 
 
Prognostics of GFS upper-level flow show that the pattern transitions from the meridional flow regime the CONUS has been experiencing for the past several days to a zonal regime until the approach of the next system. This is supported well at the 500 hPa level with little to no tight circulations present west of the Mississippi River. Zonal flow persists until both GFS and NAM show a shortwave at 500 hPa digging in from the Upper Midwest. A broad ribbon of circulation stretching from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern California coast tightens as it wraps into the approaching shortwave. The result is a decent display of cyclogenesis in the Upper Midwest. However, the moisture supply to the developing system is dismal at best. Prognostics of 700-hPa RH and low-level 850-hPa flow show that moisture will be in extremely short supply. As the wave approaches, strong SW flow at 850 hPa will result in WAA dominating Saturday during the day. This will allow daytime high's to reach into the mid to upper 60s, very pleasant for the last day of October. A moderate to strong LLJ originating out of the desert SW will set up and aid in both WAA and dry air advection. GFS and NAM soundings show only a brief, low-level cloud deck setting up in between 00z and 03z Saturday. By 09z, winds shift from the SW to the NW with the passing cold front. The cold front quickly pushes out any small amounts of moisture that was able to advect in.

By Sunday, upper-level flow returns to an extremely similar pattern to Friday's. By Monday, GFS and NAM 250-hPa plots of height and winds show upper-level flow shifting more zonal once again as a ridge builds in behind the amplifying shortwave exiting the region to the NE. Using a combination of persistence and analog forecasting, it is very likely that Sunday will see similar conditions to Friday with temperature once again warming up to above normal by Monday. However, with 850-hPa winds showing low-level flow still out of the WNW into Monday, it is unlikely WAA will dominate, preventing Monday highs from getting as high as Saturday. Monday morning's shift should look at changes in model guidance and adjust the daytime high accordingly.

                                                              Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 


             

Friday - Clear skies. High: 52-56


F
riday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 38-42

 

Saturday -Clear. High: 62-66

Saturday Night -
Partly cloudy. Low: 34-38

Sunday -
Clear, windy in the morning. High: 48-52
 
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Discussion: 
The region is in for a pleasant Halloween weekend as fair weather and sunny skies will the rule of the day through Sunday. Saturday will be breezy and slightly warmer than Friday with high temperatures warming into the low 60's. Trick-or-treat conditions will be favorable this year as the region will enjoy a cool, windy fall evening. A cold front will drop temperatures back into the 30's overnight Saturday into Sunday as we fall back with Daylight Savings Time as well. No precipitation is expected with this cold front but conditions Sunday will be windy and colder with sunny skies.
 
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Forecaster: McGuire, Bongard
Issued:  10 AM CDT 30 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
Current conditions are cold and clear with high relative humidity. The NAM model and soundings were used for the duration of this forecast due to accuracy in 00Z and 06Z model output for the current conditions. GFS was promoting current conditions that were too warm for what was observed. SREF ensemble will also be used as supplemental information.
 
At the beginning of the forecast period looking at 250-mb model charts a broad ridge is located over the majority of the western CONUS with a trough axis located over the Ohio River Valley and jet streaks placed both upstream and downstream of this axis. The streak downstream being the stronger of the two having wind speeds of 195 kts above northern Maine. Mid-Missouri is located in the right exit region of the jet streak upstream of the trough axis. Friday afternoon will bring zonal flow at the 250-mb level as the ridge moves eastward, quickly transitioning across the CONUS exiting the Midwest by Sunday at 00z. Sunday at 06z Missouri will find itself within a trough axis with a jet streak core of 120+ kts over southern Missouri. Towards the end of this forecast the flow will look a lot like the current flow, that being, a ridge set up over the western CONUS and Missouri being in the right exit region of a jet streak.

The 500-mb height and vorticity compliments the 250-mb flow with the ridge/trough patterns with a lack of vorticity initially. A trough will build into the northern Plains Saturday and amplify. This will promote a short-wave and cold front development in the northern Plains that will advect vorticity into the region between 03z-06z as the front passes through. Behind the short-wave vorticity will advect out of the region by Sunday afternoon.
 
The lower levels in the atmosphere for the majority of the forecast period are dry except during fropa. Even then, this front will be moisture starved. Prior to fropa on Saturday, there will be WAA in the lower levels. The 850-mb wind speed chart provides that the Midwest is cutoff from Gulf moisture. Soundings along with prognostics of the low level maps indicate the lack of moisture, leading to fropa without precipitation likely.  

What this means for the region is that it will be a fairly pleasant forecast period with mostly clear conditions except with fropa, where clouds will be expected but due to lack of moisture for the area, precipitation is not anticipated. Temperatures will be seasonal Friday, becoming mild due to WAA on Saturday. Typical post frontal conditions for Sunday with NW winds and temperatures falling back to seasonal.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 



Thursday Night -
Clear skies. Low: 30-34


F
riday -
Clear skies. High: 52-56


Friday Night -
Clear. Low: 38-42

Saturday -
Sunny and breezy. High: 62-66

Sunday -
Mostly clear, windy in the morning, dying down by the afternoon. High: 48-52
 
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Discussion: 
 
We can expect nice weather this last weekend in October. Thursday night sees clear skies with temperatures dropping just below freezing. Friday will have calm and clear skies. Friday night stays clear, and will be warmer than the previous night with the low staying above freezing. Expect pleasant weather on Halloween as sunny skies persist and temperatures increase possibly hitting the mid 60s. Temperatures will bottom out in the 40s for safe socially-distant trick-or-treating. Late Saturday night a cold front will pass resulting in cooler temperatures for Sunday with a high only reaching the lower 50s. Little to no moisture will come with the front, keeping skies mostly clear.
 
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Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Travis
Issued:  5 PM CDT 29 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
Another quiet and calm period is in store for mid-Missouri. The GFS was mainly used for this forecast with GEFS and SREF ensemble guidance for temperatures.

RAP analysis of 250-hPa height and wind shows the cutoff upper-level low is finally being absorbed into the upper-level jet and is moving off to the NE. The GFS prognostics of 250-hPa and 500-hPa show the wave deamplifying and flow over the central CONUS turning zonal by Friday afternoon and remaining so until the arrival of the next system on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure that has built up over the Midwest will continue to dominate, moving to the east slightly by Friday afternoon. This will put Missouri in low-level southwesterly flow beginning after 18z Friday. The result will be strong WAA ensuing Friday evening after peak heating. The result will be a fairly cool Friday and a much warmer Saturday. During this quiet period, GFS soundings show persistent dryness throughout the column resulting in clear skies for most of the period. 

Saturday night into Sunday morning is when the next system arrives. GFS 500-hPa height and vorticity show a shortwave propagating down from the Upper Midwest. At the surface this will be reflected by a cold front that will blow through Columbia in between 03z and 06z. Moisture will be in very short supply according to GFS 700-hPa RH and GFS soundings. At most, late Saturday night will see increasing clouds but little to no chance of precip. Surface high pressure quickly builds in behind the front, skies remain clear, and Sunday temperatures will be quite lower than Saturday's.

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

       


 Thursday - Overcast and rainy.  Clearing by the afternoon to clear skies.  High: 48 - 52                


T
hursday Night -
Clear overnight. Low: 30 - 34
                
 

F
riday -
Sunny and calm. High: 52 - 56

 

Friday Night - 
Clear and calm. Low: 38 - 42

                 

Saturday -
Sunny and calm. High: 58 - 62
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Discussion: 
 
    Clearing conditions are on the way for Mid-MO. After the wrap up of some morning showers and generally 
rainy conditions, the skies will part and allow for sunny skies Thursday afternoon. While humidity levels will
remain high due to an injection of Gulf moisture from Hurricane Zeta, there are no expected impacts from the remnants
of the storm.
    Relatively pleasant conditions will be around in the area Friday, as calm winds and clear skies are the main
 features of the day. Temperatures will continue on their upward trend as we may push into the upper 50s. Overnight 
Friday will continue to see fair skies with temperatures in the upper 30s possible.
    Saturday will see the continuation of clear skies as the Tigers face off against the Florida Gators. With temperatures
in the low 60s, it will be a nice day to put final touches on any Halloween decorations. Though pleasant conditions
 will be here most of the day, rain can be expected during the overnight hours, which could affect the end of any
 Halloween festivities.
 

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Forecaster: Sumrall, Ede, Gasch
Issued:  10AM CDT 29 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
A blend of the RAP, GFS and SREF and GEFS plumes were used for the forecast today. The main focus for this period will be the warmer, drier conditions that will be present to kick off the weekend.  

An upper level low southwest of Missouri will move out of the area by the afternoon. Showers will taper off around this time as dry air behind the cold front settles into place. The upper level jet that is associated with this low moves off to the east, leaving mostly zonal flow behind. Skies clearing overnight will allow for some radiational cooling, with lows near 30. 
 
A warming trend will begin starting Friday. Winds shift to out of the south, providing for warm air advection that will help temperatures return to more seasonal. Decreased values of RH will be responsible for the ample sunshine Mid-Missouri will experience. 

Warm and Sunny remains the theme for much of the day Saturday. Southerly winds will increase in speed up to 15 kts. This will help temperatures to climb to near 60 for Halloween Day. These pleasant conditions will be short-lived however as the next low pressure system is set to move into the area Saturday night, bringing with it the chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures once again.

 

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Wednesday Night -
Cloudy. Rain likely beginning in the evening. Low: 38-42

Thursday -
Cloudy becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Rain ending in the early morning. High: 44-48

Thursday Night -
Mostly clear. Low: 28-32

Friday -
Mostly clear. High: 52-56

Saturday -
Clear skies. High: 60-64
                   
 
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Discussion: 
Mid-Missouri will see a slight relief from the cold and dreary weather that has plagued the region for the past couple days. Moisture being pushed up from the Gulf from Hurricane Zeta will give us another shot of rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but should clear out of the area by late morning or early afternoon. After that sunshine returns and sticks around for the foreseeable future. Temperatures remain cold Thursday then take a dip Thursday night, but a warm up is on the way! By Friday temperatures will reach into the mid 50s and by Saturday temperatures could reach as high as the mid 60s with plenty of sunshine!
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Forecaster: Travis
Issued:  5 PM CDT 28 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main focus of this forecast period is how interactions between the a cut-off, upper-level low and the remnants of Hurricane Zeta will impact chances for precip going into Wednesday night. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used with emphasis on the GEFS and SREF ensembles for temperatures and precip amounts. 

Disturbed, upper-level flow dominates over much of the CONUS according to Wednesday's RAP analysis of 250-hPa height and wind. A cutoff low currently sits over the NM - TX border and puts Missouri in the inflection point between the associated amplified trough and weaker ridging over the far SE CONUS. GFS prognostics of 250, 500, and 700-hPa heights and winds keep the Midwest in southwesterly flow until the upper-level low gets pulled off to the northeast by the remnants of Zeta. As the wave propagates to the NE, it will bring with it ample dynamic support for precipitation Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. GFS plots of both 250-hPa divergence and 500-hPa vorticity show increased divergence overhead and increased circulation accompanying. 700-hPa RH shows Zeta will help bring in plenty of moisture to work with at least in the mid levels of the atmosphere. A look at both GFS and NAM soundings show that this moisture exists throughout the entire column. Soundings also back up the dynamic support as decent UVM is present as well. Rain will likely begin by 00z Thursday and continue until 12z at the latest.

Both GFS and NAM soundings show a drying out of the column by 09z starting at the upper and mid-levels, but keeping the lower levels relatively saturated. Rain will most likely taper off by 12z when both models' soundings show that the entire column has sufficiently dried out. Clouds will exit the region with the precipitation and Columbia will likely see mostly clear to clear skies by late afternoon. 

Behind the exiting longwave trough, GFS 500-hPa heights show that the upper-level flow turns zonal by Thursday night and continues into Saturday. This is reflected by lower level and surface high pressure building in from the northwest on Friday. GFS and NAM show low level flow shifting out of the southwest by Friday resulting in a couple days dominated by moderate WAA. This will result in a clear warming trend that will allow our temperatures to reach the middle 60s by Saturday before the next system approaches by Sunday. Future shifts should pay close attention to the strength of WAA and adjust temperatures accordingly.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field






Wednesday -
Cloudy. High: 50-54
  
 

Wednesday Night -
Cloudy with rain likely. Low: 38-42



Thursday -
Cloudy with rain, tapering off in afternoon. High: 46-50

 

Thursday Night -
Clouds begin to clear. Low: 30-34

Friday -
Sunny. High: 52-56
                   
 
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Discussion: 
Today, clouds will persist but temperatures will be warmer than they were earlier this week. It will rain tonight and into Thursday afternoon, and the clouds will finally move away Thursday night, providing for a sunny day on Friday. Clear skies will allow for a warmer day on Friday.
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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall
Issued:  6 AM CDT 28 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was put together using the 06ZGFS and SREF plumes for temperatures. The main focus for this forecast period will be the low pressure system moving toward us from the southwest.

High values of relative humidity at the 700mb and 850mb levels point to overcast conditions today. As the low moves toward us from the southwest, winds will shift to the south, causing moisture advection and WAA from the Gulf. There are high values of vorticity associated with the low at the 500 mb level, paired with negative omega at 700mb. Increased vorticity and negative omega values will be present over Columbia tonight and through Thursday afternoon, which will cause rain totalling about an eighth of an inch. Chances for flash flooding will remain to our south since the heaviest rain will occur south of Columbia.

By Thursday afternoon, relative humidity will decrease as the low moves to our southeast. This will allow the rain to end and clouds to decrease. Relative humidity remains low through Friday and the flow aloft becomes zonal. The skies will remain clear and allow for warmer temperatures than we experienced earlier in the week.

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Tuesday Night -
Cloudy. Light rain ending early. Low: 34-38



Wednesday -
Cloudy. High: 50-54
  
 

Wednesday Night -
Cloudy with rain likely. Low: 38-42



Thursday -
Cloudy with rain, tapering off in afternoon. High: 46-50



Friday -
Sunny. High: 52-56
                   
 
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Discussion: 
Today, we saw temperatures in the mid 30s with overcast skies and drizzle. Conditions will stay very similar tonight. Rain will end early into the night, but cloud cover will stay through the next couple of days. Temperatures will warm about 15-20 degrees F tomorrow. Wednesday night, rain returns and will continue through Thursday afternoon. This rain will provide for a slightly cooler day. By Friday, skies will clear, allowing for more average temperatures.
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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas
Issued:  5 PM CDT 27 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated from the 12Z NAM & GFS, supplemented by the SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is the track and intensity of the cutoff low currently detaching itself from a positively tilted trough over the western CONUS.

Satellite imagery indicates a thick cloud deck over a large portion of the central and eastern CONUS. This broadband of clouds has provided us with a lot of moisture and precipitation that we are still seeing right now and will continue to see into the early parts of tonight. At 250mb, there is a prominent positively tilted trough with a large & strong jet streak that extends from the SW to the NE CONUS. The trough is expected to collapse on itself while the low pressure system is still very apparent across the Southern Plains. This vertically-stacked cutoff low is associated with a lot of vorticity.

As the low continues to travel towards us from the west, the counterclockwise winds associated with the cyclone will begin to funnel in southerly winds, thus beginning WAA. Moisture is present in the lower 300mb of the atmosphere with this system, but no forcing is expected to allow for rain to reach the ground until Wednesday night. Instability should stay on the SW portion of the low, so no thunderstorm activity is expected. Sufficient moisture and omega values will continue to drop rain across Mid-MO until midday Thursday, when this system moves eastward. Moisture will go with it and sunny skies across Columbia will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 50s on Friday. 

Future forecasters should monitor the track of the low to our south and how it could influence Hurricane Zeta, as its landfall is scheduled for late Wednesday. Since the low is expected to advect moisture into Mid-MO, it could potentially take moisture and energy from Zeta. It will be interesting to see how those two interact with each other.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Tuesday -
Cloudy. Morning fog possible. Chance for afternoon rain. High: 40-44


Tuesday Night -
Cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Low: 34-38

  
 
Wednesday - Cloudy with showers. High: 50-54 


Wednesday Night- Cloudy with showers. Low: 40-44



Thursday -
Cloudy with showers. High: 46-50
 
 
                          
 
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Discussion: 
Similar to yesterday's trends, today's temperatures climb to the lower 40's with rain possible late afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures overnight drop slightly into the upper-30s while our cloud cover stays with us. Wednesday, temperatures increase thanks to a southwesterly flow. The possibility of showers continues to stay with us throughout the day and increase overnight with an approaching low pressure system moving in from southern Kansas west towards the Missouri/ Arkansas border. Temperatures remain similar to Wednesday but seem to dip slightly to highs in the upper 40's. The possibility of showers remain with us throughout most of Thursday. 
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Forecaster: Gotsch, Ritter
Issued:  10 AM CDT 27 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated using the 06z GFS. The main focus for this forecast period is an increase in chances of rain throughout most of the forecast period and temperature trends.

Currently, satellites and radars show a dry area located over the majority of central and western Missouri. A weak high pressure system is located over central northern Missouri leading in a break in rain over central Missouri. The upper level jet is currently positioned over Northern Missouri positioning Central Missouri in the left divergence region which will influence our rainfall possibilities later today. We should remain dry until late afternoon hours where warm air advection begins to occur leading to the possibility of showers into this Tuesday evening fueled by low level flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico. 

West of Missouri located over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, a deepening trough is beginning to develop which will begin to push west tracking along the Missouri/ Arkansas border. The upper level jet max remains situated northeast of Missouri over the Great Lake region. This will continue to keep us located in the left divergence area leading to continuous rainfall for much of Wednesday. The southwesterly flow Wednesday morning will lead to an increase in temperatures Wednesday. Along with warmer temperatures, this southwestern flow will bring with it moisture in the lower levels originating from the Gulf of Mexico. As we head into Wednesday afternoon, the deepening low-pressure system moving west from the Oklahoma/ Kansas border moves south of the CWA and sets up along the central portion of the Missouri/Arkansas border. Fueled heavily by the moist low-level jet high amounts of heavy rainfall will be seen the further south of the I-70 corridor you go. Chances of thunderstorms have begin to diminish as predicted wind shear and CAPE values have decreased throughout much of the forecast time.

Monday, October 26, 2020

 


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Monday Night -
Cloudy with a mix of freezing rain and snow. Low: 30-34


Tuesday -
Cloudy. Morning fog possible. Chance for afternoon rain. High: 40-44


Tuesday Night -
Cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Low: 34-38



Wednesday -
Cloudy with afternoon showers/storms possible. High: 50-54


Thursday -
Cloudy with showers/storms possible. High: 46-50
 
 
                          
 
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Discussion: 
Today, Mid-MO saw the first snow of the season with around an inch of accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Tonight, the wintry mix is likely to continue until we warm up slightly tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, we could see a chance of rain as temperatures warm into the 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will mostly dry until later Wednesday, where showers and even thunderstorms could be possible into Thursday.
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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons
Issued:  5 PM CDT 26 October 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated by a general model blend from the 18Z NAM, GFS, HRRR, and RAP, supplemented by the SREF and GEFS. We tried to look at the latest model runs of many models to see if there is continuity between them during the wet week ahead expected for Mid-MO. The main focus for this forecast period is the continuation of winter weather through the night and a few more rain chances expected in the next couple of days.

Winter weather made its first appearance of the season today. In Columbia, rain transitioned to sleet around 15Z and that transitioned to snow before 18Z today. It recently just transitioned back to sleet. Temperatures have dropped about 10 degrees F since midnight as a dominant high pressure system sitting over the central Great Plains funnels in a cold air mass to the Midwest. Northerly winds have gusted up to 20mph as we sit under a jet streak and to the east of a pronounced negatively tilted trough at 250mb. This is forecast to become a cutoff low within the next 24 hours and will likely impact our weather over the next few days. All of the models we looked at this afternoon had sufficient continuity for this system.

Soundings indicate saturation throughout the lower half of the troposphere all night long with temperatures straddling the freezing line. We are expected to dry up near sunrise tomorrow morning, but the surface temperature and dew point temperature will be so close together that this could create freezing fog/drizzle when the morning low is achieved tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s in the afternoon where saturation could be reached again, creating a chance for rain. This low-level cloud deck is expected to stay around through Tuesday and Wednesday, even when precipitation is not likely to reach the ground. 

A warm front is forecast to approach us on Wednesday, bring a warm & moist air mass with it. This could provide enough lift and instability to create weak thunderstorms. As this cold and warm air mass collide, the biggest threat would be hail forming in the updrafts up the supercooled air within these storms. We also have to monitor the track of the cutoff low from the west and Hurricane Zeta in the Gulf of Mexico. The cutoff low is expected to impact our rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, but future forecasters should watch for the impacts that could be created if/when Zeta and the cutoff low merge. These are both likely to keep moisture in Mid-MO during the middle of this week but probably not by the upcoming weekend.