Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 54 - 58
Thursday - Mostly clear. High: 78 - 82
Thursday Night - Mostly clear skies. Low: 56 - 60
Friday - Partly cloudy skies. High: 80 - 84
Saturday - Becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 76 - 80
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue for the remainder of the week and to start off our weekend. High pressure will dominate over the Midwest keeping us hot and dry. Some high clouds will move in Thursday to break up the crystal clear skies we've seen the past couple days. Clouds will be on the increase come Saturday, but we will remain dry for the football game moved to Faurot due to hurricane Delta expected to impact Baton Rouge.
Persistence is key for this quiet forecast. The main issue to focus on is the almost summer-like temperatures that have set up over mid-Missouri. The GFS was used for plan-view prognostics, consulting the GEFS and SREF for an ensemble take on the warm temps.
Wednesday night will be much the same story as the past 48 hours. The GFS places upper-level LW off to the north over the Upper Great Lakes region, keeping flow over the Mid-Mississippi Valley zonal for the next couple days. More clearly seen on plots of 500-hPa vorticity is a s/w trough propagating off of the Rockies and into the Midwest come Friday night. However the GFS wants the vorticity maximum merging and being absorbed into the eventual remnants of hurricane Delta. This will keep the system well to our south and keep the upper-level flow zonal for the remainder of the forecast period. This is much the same story for the mid-levels of the atmosphere as the GFS plots of 700-hPa RH keep any remnant tropical moisture to our south as well.
Upper-level moisture, however will be able to make it further north. GFS soundings show upper-level saturation beginning during the day Thursday and continuing until Friday night. This will most likely show itself in the form of widespread cirroform clouds. These will have an impact on radiational cooling, trapping more outgoing LW radiation than the past couple clear nights. The result will be slightly warmer lows than we have seen thus far. GFS has been continuous with strong radiation inversion and light winds at the surface, so will continue to look for foggy conditions in the morning, but seeing how METARs from KCOU have not shown any fog developing in similar conditions, may be devoid of surface moisture.
Zonal flow in the upper levels and a storm track well to the north will keep an area of low-level high pressure parked off to our east putting us in southerly flow in the lower levels. This will keep our temperatures above average and unchanging until Delta's remnants force a pattern change by Saturday night. Later shifts should look more closely at how Delta will impact the forecast post-Saturday.
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