Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 54-58
Wednesday - Sunny. High: 82-86
Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 54-58
Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 76-80
Friday - Sunny. High: 80-84
We are still experiencing late summer-like temperatures. Today we hit a high of 77 with winds from the southwest. Tonight we are going to see clear skies with a warm, southwesterly wind. This will lead us to a low temperature in the mid-50s. Tomorrow we are still going to have sunny skies with the consistent southwesterly wind which will allow our high to hit the warmest for this week. Some clouds will develop overnight into Thursday ahead of winds shifting to the east. The clouds will play a role in the temperature for Wednesday night and Thursday. Friday we see a return of the clear, bright skies with a wind from the south leading to a warmer day.
Another quiet period is in store for the region. The main focus is abnormally warm temperatures setting in by Wednesday and Thursday. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used for this mainly persistence governed forecast. SREF and GEFS were consulted for ensemble guidance for temperatures.
As the day progresses on Tuesday, upper-level flow will turn zonal as the LW seen in plots of 250-hPa heights/winds and 500-hPa heights and vorticity pushes further to our northeast. A zonal flow regime dominated by little moisture in the atmosphere will be responsible for the very pleasant weather that will continue through the end of the week. GFS and NAM 700-hPa heights and RH show no mid-level moisture within several hundred miles of mid-Missouri until the approach of Delta's remnants by the end of the week. A closer look at soundings show that the entire column is devoid of moisture save for scarce amounts filtering into the upper levels Wednesday night into Thursday. This may show itself in the form of upper-level cirroform clouds and contrails during the day Thursday. With clear to mostly clear skies, soundings show ample radiational cooling with stiff inversions near the surface. If winds calm down enough, would not be surprised to see some patchy early morning fog both Wednesday and Thursday morning.
By Tuesday night, GFS and NAM show winds at the lower levels (specifically 850 hPa) shifting out of the WSW and SW. Off to the west is an airmass of unseasonably warm air that will have no trouble infiltrating the region due to zonal flow aloft reflected by surface high pressure over the Midwest. This will allow our temperatures to feel very summer-like for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Upper-level cloudiness may keep upper-level lows higher then forecast. Future shifts should keep an eye on these effects.
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