Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain likely beginning in the evening. Low: 38-42

Thursday - Cloudy becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Rain ending in the early morning. High: 44-48

Thursday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 28-32

Friday - Mostly clear. High: 52-56

Saturday - Clear skies. High: 60-64

                   

 

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Discussion: 

Mid-Missouri will see a slight relief from the cold and dreary weather that has plagued the region for the past couple days. Moisture being pushed up from the Gulf from Hurricane Zeta will give us another shot of rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but should clear out of the area by late morning or early afternoon. After that sunshine returns and sticks around for the foreseeable future. Temperatures remain cold Thursday then take a dip Thursday night, but a warm up is on the way! By Friday temperatures will reach into the mid 50s and by Saturday temperatures could reach as high as the mid 60s with plenty of sunshine!

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Forecaster: Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 28 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main focus of this forecast period is how interactions between the a cut-off, upper-level low and the remnants of Hurricane Zeta will impact chances for precip going into Wednesday night. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used with emphasis on the GEFS and SREF ensembles for temperatures and precip amounts. 

Disturbed, upper-level flow dominates over much of the CONUS according to Wednesday's RAP analysis of 250-hPa height and wind. A cutoff low currently sits over the NM - TX border and puts Missouri in the inflection point between the associated amplified trough and weaker ridging over the far SE CONUS. GFS prognostics of 250, 500, and 700-hPa heights and winds keep the Midwest in southwesterly flow until the upper-level low gets pulled off to the northeast by the remnants of Zeta. As the wave propagates to the NE, it will bring with it ample dynamic support for precipitation Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. GFS plots of both 250-hPa divergence and 500-hPa vorticity show increased divergence overhead and increased circulation accompanying. 700-hPa RH shows Zeta will help bring in plenty of moisture to work with at least in the mid levels of the atmosphere. A look at both GFS and NAM soundings show that this moisture exists throughout the entire column. Soundings also back up the dynamic support as decent UVM is present as well. Rain will likely begin by 00z Thursday and continue until 12z at the latest.

Both GFS and NAM soundings show a drying out of the column by 09z starting at the upper and mid-levels, but keeping the lower levels relatively saturated. Rain will most likely taper off by 12z when both models' soundings show that the entire column has sufficiently dried out. Clouds will exit the region with the precipitation and Columbia will likely see mostly clear to clear skies by late afternoon. 

Behind the exiting longwave trough, GFS 500-hPa heights show that the upper-level flow turns zonal by Thursday night and continues into Saturday. This is reflected by lower level and surface high pressure building in from the northwest on Friday. GFS and NAM show low level flow shifting out of the southwest by Friday resulting in a couple days dominated by moderate WAA. This will result in a clear warming trend that will allow our temperatures to reach the middle 60s by Saturday before the next system approaches by Sunday. Future shifts should pay close attention to the strength of WAA and adjust temperatures accordingly.