Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 48-52
Wednesday - Sunny and windy. High: 82-86
Wednesday Night - Increasing clouds. Mostly cloudy by sunrise.
Thursday - Mostly cloudy, becoming sunny by afternoon. High: 56-60
Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 32-36
Today, MU saw a high of 78 F with 15-20 MPH wind gusts through the day. Tonight, we will see mostly clear skies with fairly average low temperatures. Wednesday will be a sunny and windier day with southerly wind gusts up to 35 MPH that will propel our afternoon temperatures into the mid 80s. Clouds will move into Mid-MO Wednesday evening keeping our nighttime temperatures a little warmer. These are ahead of a cold front that sustains cloud coverage into Thursday, leading to a considerably cooler day. Skies will clear by Thursday night, bringing us to our coldest night of the season thus far.
We used a general model blend of the 18Z GFS and NAM, supplemented with the SREF and GEFS. The main focus for this forecast period is a cold front that looks to pack a punch behind it in terms of temperatures heading into Thursday.
An anticyclone over the Ohio Valley dominated our weather today, as surface winds have shifted out of the south. Afternoon highs soared into the upper 70s, and breezy conditions still existed with gusts up to 20 MPH recorded at Sanborn Field on MU's campus. A large pressure gradient exists across the Midwest, fueling these stronger winds. Zonal flow exists aloft, as a vertically-stacked cyclone with a central pressure of 977mb over north-central Canada wants to start digging a trough into the central CONUS later this week.
A cold front is currently sitting over NW MO. Tomorrow is expected to be windier as the cold front continues to slowly move SE and the large pressure gradient still exists over us. Dew points temperatures are in the 40s today and are expected to stay in that range tomorrow, but they decrease along with the temperatures after cold FROPA is scheduled to occur between 06-12Z Thursday morning. Breezy conditions and a dry atmosphere, as well as temperatures soaring into the 80s tomorrow, has prompted the NWS to put Boone County under a fire weather watch tomorrow from 17Z-23Z. Due to extremely low dew point temperatures, no precipitation is expected over Mid-MO during cold FROPA. Clouds will exist in the mid-atmosphere, but our atmosphere is too dry to support high RH values near the surface.
Future forecasters should monitor how long we will feel the effects of this cold front. Temperatures Thursday night could surge into the lower to middle 30s Thursday night and possibly develop patchy frost across Columbia on elevated surfaces. Temperatures look to stay well below-average heading into Friday, but another brief warm-up could shake things up heading into the weekend.
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