Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Windy. Becoming sunny by early afternoon. High: 68-72

 

Monday Night - Clear. Low: 46-50

 

Tuesday - Abundant Sunshine. High: 74-78

 

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 48-52

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 78-82

 

 

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Discussion: 

On the heels of a cold frontal passage early this morning, we should experience rapidly clearing skies today with much cooler, albeit still slightly above-average temperatures. Northwest winds gusting to 35 MPH will also be likely today. By tonight, the winds should die down, leaving mid-Missouri with a clear, calm, and cool night. Tuesday through Wednesday, near-surface southerly flow will allow a warming trend to ensue, with afternoon highs Tuesday in the mid- to upper-70s and afternoon highs Wednesday near 80. Skies should remain mostly clear both days.

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Forecaster: Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 12 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The item of greatest concern on this particular forecast will, once again, be just how warm afternoon high temperatures can manage to get. The GFS was used as primary guidance, supplemented by the GEFS and SREF.

Early this morning, an upper-level trough extended from Manitoba down into eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture was present from the upper Midwest into the mid-Mississippi valley. A surface cold front extended from the western edge of Lake Superior into central Texas, and this front was advancing rapidly eastward. Clouds were seen on satellite over much of the upper Midwest and mid-Mississippi valley, with showers and thunderstorms showing up on many upper Midwest radars. Unfortunately, here in Columbia, we did not see any badly-needed rainfall from this FROPA; instead, we got clouds and very gusty winds.

Looking ahead to the forecast period, we should be in for a warming trend behind this cold front. After the upper-level trough passes through the region today, the GFS suggest zonal flow will take over in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The GFS also suggests we will be devoid of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so once skies clear out late this morning, it will be quite some time before we see clouds again. GFS Skew-Ts are advertising gusty winds (20-25 kts sustained) throughout the day today, but the winds should settle down quickly around sunset. Afterwords, GFS Skew-Ts are advertising veering winds near the surface on Tuesday, and completely southwesterly near-surface flow by Wednesday, leading me to believe each day during the forecast period will be noticeably warmer than the previous.

For temperatures, I expect afternoon highs today to be right around 70. Tonight should be much cooler than last night, and under clear skies, I expect that we will drop into the upper-40s. Tuesday will be warmer than today, with afternoon highs in the mid- to upper-70s thanks to near surface veering. Another clear, calm, and dry night will be in store Tuesday night, with lows once again dropping to around 50. With southerly near surface flow firmly in place Wednesday, it should be the warmest day of the period, with afternoon highs near 80.