Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Sunny. Breezy in the afternoon. High: 68-72 

Monday Night - Clear skies. Breezy during the evening. Low: 46-50

 

   

 

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78

 

       

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56

                  

Wednesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 80-84

 

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Discussion: 

After a weekend that was cool, cloudy, and even a bit rainy at times, the overall pattern will shift this week. A large area of high pressure that has been situated in the southwestern United States for some time will expand northeast into the Midwest today, bringing with it cloudless skies and some gusty winds this afternoon and evening. This ridge will also bring much warmer temperatures to mid-Missouri, with high temperatures this afternoon and overnight lows tonight sitting near average, and both high and low temperatures over the next couple of days being well above average.

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Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 5 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

A pleasant, albeit warm forecast is in store for central Missouri during this period. The biggest

concern during this forecast is determining just how warm we will get, which at present looks to be 

pretty warm. This shift used the 06 UTC run of the GFS as primary guidance, supplemented by the 

SREF.

 

This morning, it was clear and chilly outside, with frost being observed around Columbia. Skies were 

able to clear yesterday as a 250-hPa jet streak and 500-hPa shortwave trough moved into the 

eastern CONUS. These upper-level features took with them the low level moisture we experienced 

early in the weekend, leaving us with a pleasant but cool Sunday. Clear skies persisted overnight and 

into this morning as the ridge built in further, leaving us with some frost this morning.

 

Looking ahead to the next few days, we have a pretty significant warm up in store. The solution from 

the GFS suggests the upper-level ridge to our southwest will continue to build northeast over our 

area, replacing the trough that dominated our weather last week. With the ridge building north, any 

disturbances and associated moisture should be confined to the Great Lakes region through the 

period. GFS Skew-T's also show veering winds greater than 20 kts in the lowest 150 hPa of the 

atmosphere this afternoon and tonight. This will, of course, mean breezy conditions at the surface, 

but will also help usher in warm air late this afternoon and tonight. While high temperatures this 

afternoon and morning lows tomorrow should be near average, this WAA will result in high and low 

temperatures tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning, respectively, that are 5-10 degrees above 

normal. The ridge should be firmly in place by Wednesday, which will leave us with even warmer high 

temperatures Wednesday that will be 10 to perhaps as much as 15 degrees above normal for this time 

of year.