Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78
Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 48-52
Wednesday - Windy. Mostly sunny. High: 82-86
Wednesday Night - Variable cloudiness. Low: 50-54
We should experience abundant sunshine today leading to warmer temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures drop overnight but remain slightly warmer than the last night's low. An increasing southwesterly wind throughout the day Wednesday will result in the warmest temperatures of the week. Winds decrease overnight Wednesday night while cloud cover increases, leading to warmer temperatures. On Thursday, temperatures drop into the upper 50's thanks in part to the passage of the overnight cold front.
The item of concern for this forecast period was the high temperatures and winds on Wednesday. We used a blend of the 06 UTC GFS/NAM, supplemented by SREF Plumes.
Currently, an upper-level ridge is in place from Western Canada down into Kansas, influencing our current temperatures and lack of moisture. Winds shift to a southwesterly flow increasing today's high temperatures along with the overnight lows. We remain mostly clear overnight as the upper-level ridge shifts eastward providing us with drier air.
The atmosphere shifts to a zonal flow for a short period of time as an upper-level trough begins to build over the western United States. Before arrival of this trough, temperatures increase Wednesday afternoon to the lower 80's thanks to the dominant southwesterly flow. Late Wednesday night, the western trough begins to deepen, pushing eastward over the Midwest shifting winds to a more northerly direction. The predicted pressure gradients from both the NAM and GFS indicate increasing winds as the day continues into early overnight. The low temperatures overnight Wednesday remain similar to Tuesday due to overnight clouds from our deepening low keeping Columbia in the lower 50's. As the low moves further eastward, the winds begin to decrease along with our temperatures and the cloud cover should diminish. The dry northerly flow drops Thursday's high temperatures dramatically compared to Wednesday as we remain in the base of the upper-level trough.
The upper level trough experienced throughout much of our forecast period will continue to deepen and slowly develop eastward which will be an area of interest for future forecasters to pay attention to for continuous falling temperatures and a drier local atmosphere.
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