Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Overcast Low: 40-44

Tuesday - Cloudy with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop near sunset. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible early on. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Cloudy morning, decreasing clouds into the night. High: 64-68

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 78-82

 

 

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Discussion: 

Today, we saw overcast skies and cooler temperatures from the cold front that passed through yesterday. The clouds will stay with us for the next couple days but no rain chances exist until late Tuesday when scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder may pop up close to sundown. Rain probabilities are on the lower side for now, but we will keep an eye on them through the day tomorrow. Temperatures will slowly increase as clouds start to dissipate Wednesday until a warm front comes through that night. This along with sunny skies will allow the temperatures on Thursday to warm up to near 80 degrees.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 19 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated with guidance from the 12Z NAM and GFS, supplemented with data from the SREF and GEFS. Our main focus for this forecast period is rain chances on Tuesday followed by a warmup into Wednesday and Thursday. 

Cold FROPA occurred over Columbia near 15Z, bringing us cold temperatures and a thick, low-level cloud deck. Due to a dry layer near the surface, we saw very little precipitation. The low-level clouds stuck with us today and are expected to stay through Wednesday due to the cold front becoming quasi-stationary near the Missouri-Arkansas border. These clouds along with a trough situated over the Great Plains kept temperatures today cooler in the mid to upper 40s. 

Tomorrow afternoon, moisture is expected to be advected into mid-Missouri as surface winds shift out of the southeast. Skew-T data for tomorrow afternoon shows saturation from the surface up to the low-level cloud deck. The GFS shows sufficient lift and instability to produce some thunderstorms, but the NAM wasn't as confident in this area. Ensembles from 21Z Tuesday to 06Z Wednesday are not in agreement for rainfall intensity and duration. However, WAA is expected in both models as winds are shown to veer with height tomorrow night, so there is still a good possibility for at least a few showers to occur. A warm front is scheduled to lift over mid-Missouri late Wednesday and is not associated with any moisture at this time. The front will push the clouds out of the area and bring warmer temperatures for Thursday. 

Future forecasters should pay attention to model agreement for the rain expected tomorrow. They should also be aware of CAPE and omega values that could potentially ignite a few thunderstorms. The warming trend into Thursday is also not expected to last long, as a cold front is expected to pass by Friday morning. Moisture may be associated with that front.