Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 30-34

Friday - Clear skies. High: 52-56

Friday Night -Clear. Low: 38-42

Saturday - Sunny and breezy. High: 62-66

Sunday - Mostly clear, windy in the morning, dying down by the afternoon. High: 48-52

 

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Discussion: 

 

We can expect nice weather this last weekend in October. Thursday night sees clear skies with temperatures dropping just below freezing. Friday will have calm and clear skies. Friday night stays clear, and will be warmer than the previous night with the low staying above freezing. Expect pleasant weather on Halloween as sunny skies persist and temperatures increase possibly hitting the mid 60s. Temperatures will bottom out in the 40s for safe socially-distant trick-or-treating. Late Saturday night a cold front will pass resulting in cooler temperatures for Sunday with a high only reaching the lower 50s. Little to no moisture will come with the front, keeping skies mostly clear.

 

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Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 29 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

Another quiet and calm period is in store for mid-Missouri. The GFS was mainly used for this forecast with GEFS and SREF ensemble guidance for temperatures.

RAP analysis of 250-hPa height and wind shows the cutoff upper-level low is finally being absorbed into the upper-level jet and is moving off to the NE. The GFS prognostics of 250-hPa and 500-hPa show the wave deamplifying and flow over the central CONUS turning zonal by Friday afternoon and remaining so until the arrival of the next system on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure that has built up over the Midwest will continue to dominate, moving to the east slightly by Friday afternoon. This will put Missouri in low-level southwesterly flow beginning after 18z Friday. The result will be strong WAA ensuing Friday evening after peak heating. The result will be a fairly cool Friday and a much warmer Saturday. During this quiet period, GFS soundings show persistent dryness throughout the column resulting in clear skies for most of the period. 

Saturday night into Sunday morning is when the next system arrives. GFS 500-hPa height and vorticity show a shortwave propagating down from the Upper Midwest. At the surface this will be reflected by a cold front that will blow through Columbia in between 03z and 06z. Moisture will be in very short supply according to GFS 700-hPa RH and GFS soundings. At most, late Saturday night will see increasing clouds but little to no chance of precip. Surface high pressure quickly builds in behind the front, skies remain clear, and Sunday temperatures will be quite lower than Saturday's.