Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers possible. High: 60-64

 

Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 58-62

                

Thursday - Sunny and windy. High: 80-84

 

 

Thursday Night - Clouds building. Low: 62-66

Friday -  Mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. High: 48-52

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

The weather rollercoaster continues throughout this forecast period. Similar to yesterday, today will be overcast and cooler, with slight chances of rain. Tonight the sky will finally clear, and the warming trend will begin with a higher low. Tomorrow will be an unseasonably warm day with stronger winds. Enjoy the warmer weather because it will move out as quickly as it moved in, as Friday will be as much as 30 degrees cooler with rain back in our forecast.

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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued:  9 AM CDT 21 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was built using the 06Z GFS model along with SREF plumes. The main focus for this forecast period will be the warm front passing through tonight followed by a cold front Thursday night, with chances of rain today and Friday.

A stationary front currently sits over southeast Missouri. Aided by the low level jet, it will move north as a warm front through Columbia starting around 18Z today. Relative humidity levels are high to the north of the front, and are responsible for the clouds and chances of precipitation we will experience today. This moisture will move away with the front overnight.

Thursday's temperatures will be warmer due to the wind shift to the southwest after the warm front passage. These southwesterly winds are stronger, about 15 knots because of a tighter pressure gradient at the surface. These conditions will change quickly as a cold front moves through Thursday night, bringing increased moisture levels with it. This increased moisture will bring clouds back into the area.

The timing of the frontal passage is still uncertain. Temperatures will begin to drop Thursday night, and continue to fall throughout the day Friday. Friday will be significantly cooler by nearly 30 degrees. Increased vorticity levels at the 500 mb level associated with the cold front passage will increase the chance of showers on Friday as well as a slight increase in the negative omega values providing lift. Again the timing of these showers and thunderstorms are still uncertain and will depend on how fast the front moves in and how fast the cold air behind it settles in. There is little model consensus as to when the front moves through, when the best chances for rain are, and just how cold the temperatures will be.