Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Saturday - Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High: 68-72
Saturday Night - Cloudy skies. Low: 48-52
Sunday - Rain and clouds. Falling temps throughout the day. High: 50-54
Friday will be a pleasant day with high pressure influencing the region giving us mostly sunny skies and temperatures topping out around 60. Friday night we will hang on to some clouds with lows in the low to mid 40s. Saturday will be an even nicer day due to southerly winds bringing warm air into the region with afternoon highs near 70. Saturday night the mild temperatures will stick around before a cold front enters the area early Sunday morning. Due to the timing of the cold front our high temperature for Sunday will actually come in the morning and then temps will fall throughout the day into the low 40s. Along with the cold front we will experience rainfall in amounts up to 0.50 inch. Overall Sunday will be a wet and cold day for the area so don't forget those jackets and umbrellas.
The rollercoaster of autumnal weather in the Midwest continues into the weekend as the nighttime lows continue to dip colder and the daytime highs struggle to hang on to the remnants of late summer. For this round of forecasting the GFS model was used as the 06Z GFS model run lined up consistently with initial conditions reported at the start of the forecasting period (13Z). SREF and GEFS plumes were analyzed and disregarded due to wild uncertainty among model members in both plumes regarding all aspects of the frontal passage this weekend.
Upper level flow Friday reveals a meridional pattern of ridge-trough over the CONUS with the axis of the LW trough amplified over the Midwest. Over the course of the day Friday the axis of said trough will persist eastward as a modest 175+ knot jet core oriented northwest to southeast begins to nose its way into the region by midday and then lifts to the north of Missouri by 00Z Saturday as the trough deepens over the Ohio River Valley. Friday will be a pleasant day for mid-Missouri with highs struggling to reach 60F as dry conditions continue on the strength of a surface anticyclone that spins its way from central Kansas down towards the ArkLaTex by Friday evening. This surface high will be the catalyst for warmer temperatures Saturday as a robust 60 knot LLJ sets up on its western flank early Saturday morning.
Lows Friday night will retreat back into the 40's though the region will not experience the same frigid conditions from Thursday night thanks to the aforementioned low level flow and vigorous LLJ that will moderate overnight lows. The upper level flow will transition to a brief zonal flow Saturday as the amplifying trough to the east exits the continent and the ridge to the west flattens as another LW trough over central Canada begins to impose its will on the flow over the CONUS. Troughing will begin to form over the northern Plains Friday night into Saturday and a boundary will form over the Dakotas that will be responsible for the next round of weather in central Missouri. Saturday however will be another pleasant day as the LLJ helps to pump warm air into the region sending daytime highs back up to near 70F. A few high clouds may develop Saturday afternoon when the profile begins to saturate from the top down according to GFS model soundings as the boundary to the northwest encroaches on Missouri by 00Z Sunday.
Trapped in the warm sector of the frontal system that has developed over the Plains the region will see low temperatures Saturday night that only fall back into the 50s. The center of low pressure will remain well to the north northeast over the Great Lakes as it drags the cold front into the region by Sunday morning between 12-15Z. Much needed rainfall will finally occur in the forecast area as precipitation develops along and just ahead of the cold front Sunday morning. Rain will persist through late-afternoon Sunday accumulating to the tune of about 0.5 inches according to GFS. The "warmest" portion of Sunday will be early morning before fropa and then temperatures will gradually fall back to near 40F by late afternoon Sunday. The region will experience a bit of a "raw" day as the forecast period comes to a close Sunday evening.
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