Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Showers likely, thunderstorms possible through the night. Low: 44-48

Wednesday - Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers possible. High: 62-66

 

Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 58-62

                

Thursday - Sunny and windy. High: 82-86

Friday -  Mostly cloudy. Morning thunderstorms possible. High: 50-54

 

 

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Discussion: 

Today, MU saw a few showers fall from a low-level cloud deck that also obscured visibility at times. Tonight, we expect rain that could have a few rumbles of thunder along with it to move across central and southeastern Missouri. A slight chance for rain persists into Wednesday, but we expect a similar day tomorrow as we saw today, with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures. Overnight into Thursday, a warm front will allow for temperatures to increase and cloud cover to decrease. Winds will also pick up out of the south, before a cold front is expected to bring cooler air and moisture back into Mid-MO by Friday.

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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued:  5 PM CDT 20 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated primarily with a general model blend from the 18Z NAM and 12Z GFS, supplemented with the SREF plumes and model soundings. The focus for this time period is a rollercoaster of mid-latitude weather: rain chances tonight, a warm up on Thursday, followed by more cool air to end the week.

Cloudiness observed over the past day is associated by the deepening trough that Mid-MO is sitting south of. Winds from the south are providing low-level moisture over the area, contributing to areas of patchy fog and a low ceiling, measured around 5000ft from NWS Columbia METARs observed today. A few showers have fallen across Columbia due to a combination of ingredients: low-level moisture along with veering winds with height. Continuation of this development will allow for showers and possibly thunderstorms to present itself overnight.

The 00z sounding for Wednesday indicates a moderate temperature inversion essentially at the surface up to 850mb. With this inversion, we are saturated up to 700mb--where we start to cool off substantially. Calm winds exist from the SSE at the surface at this time, but this sounding also shows substantial veering with height and wind speeds at 50kt from the west at 850mb. Sufficient amounts of vertical motion are expected tonight, with EFFSHR values near 20kts. This will lead to the possibility of convection overnight tonight. At 700mb and above, the atmosphere becomes very dry, along with a 0 J/kg MLCAPE value, so any rain or storms we have tonight to not be able to climb and increase substantially in any severity other than showers. The best location for instability, moisture, and lift will occur over SE MO tonight, near the frontal boundary. Rain will end around 09z with the total amount up to a third of an inch. Rain chances persist into tomorrow, but vertical motion will be very scarce. It is likely that we will see reduced visibility, but probably nothing more than a few sprinkles like we saw today.

A warm front is expected to lift over mid-MO Wednesday night. No moisture is associated with, allowing for the sun to shine and temperatures to climb into the 80s on Thursday. Thursday is also expected to be windy due to a large pressure gradient over the state. However, the low pressure system associated with it is expected to become occluded and a cold front should bring in a lot of cooler air very soon after warm FROPA occurs. Sufficient moisture and vertical motion bring a high chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Future forecasters should pay attention to the timing of Friday's cold front as the NAM projected an earlier passage than the GFS. This could impact when the high temperature on Friday would be reached.