Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Cloudy. Morning fog possible. Chance for afternoon rain. High: 40-44

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Low: 34-38

  

 

Wednesday - Cloudy with showers. High: 50-54 

Wednesday Night- Cloudy with showers. Low: 40-44

Thursday - Cloudy with showers. High: 46-50

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

Similar to yesterday's trends, today's temperatures climb to the lower 40's with rain possible late afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures overnight drop slightly into the upper-30s while our cloud cover stays with us. Wednesday, temperatures increase thanks to a southwesterly flow. The possibility of showers continues to stay with us throughout the day and increase overnight with an approaching low pressure system moving in from southern Kansas west towards the Missouri/ Arkansas border. Temperatures remain similar to Wednesday but seem to dip slightly to highs in the upper 40's. The possibility of showers remain with us throughout most of Thursday. 

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 27 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated using the 06z GFS. The main focus for this forecast period is an increase in chances of rain throughout most of the forecast period and temperature trends.

Currently, satellites and radars show a dry area located over the majority of central and western Missouri. A weak high pressure system is located over central northern Missouri leading in a break in rain over central Missouri. The upper level jet is currently positioned over Northern Missouri positioning Central Missouri in the left divergence region which will influence our rainfall possibilities later today. We should remain dry until late afternoon hours where warm air advection begins to occur leading to the possibility of showers into this Tuesday evening fueled by low level flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico. 

West of Missouri located over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, a deepening trough is beginning to develop which will begin to push west tracking along the Missouri/ Arkansas border. The upper level jet max remains situated northeast of Missouri over the Great Lake region. This will continue to keep us located in the left divergence area leading to continuous rainfall for much of Wednesday. The southwesterly flow Wednesday morning will lead to an increase in temperatures Wednesday. Along with warmer temperatures, this southwestern flow will bring with it moisture in the lower levels originating from the Gulf of Mexico. As we head into Wednesday afternoon, the deepening low-pressure system moving west from the Oklahoma/ Kansas border moves south of the CWA and sets up along the central portion of the Missouri/Arkansas border. Fueled heavily by the moist low-level jet high amounts of heavy rainfall will be seen the further south of the I-70 corridor you go. Chances of thunderstorms have begin to diminish as predicted wind shear and CAPE values have decreased throughout much of the forecast time.