Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78
Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56
Wednesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 80-84
Our warming trend continues today with our high temperatures increasing about 10 degrees from the mid-60s we experienced yesterday. Tonight we cool down into the lower- to mid-50's and remain cloud free. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the period, with high temperatures in the lower-80's, and cloud cover will remain nonexistent. Wednesday night, there may be some upper-level clouds in the area due to a weak cold frontal passage. Low temperatures Wednesday night should be similar to Tuesday night's. The upper level clouds will stay with us into early Thursday morning dissipating as the day goes on. Afternoon highs Thursday should be slightly cooler than Wednesday due to the passage of the front.
The main concern for the forecast period will be temperatures; specifically, the focus was primarily aimed at just how warm mid-Missouri may get tomorrow, and just how much cooler than Wednesday Thursday will be. This forecast used a blend of the 06 UTC NAM and 06 UTC GFS, supplemented by the SREF.
The beginning of this week has been quite pleasant over central Missouri. The upper-level trough that dominated our weather most of last week has now shifted into the Great Lakes region, allowing the upper-level ridge that has been sitting to our southwest to begin to building into the region. With this feature, warmer air has been able to build into the Midwest. Additionally, with the trough departing to our northeast, it has taken all low-level moisture with it, leaving us with cloudless skies yesterday. Veering winds at the low levels of the atmosphere have been apparent over the past 12 hours, further indicating the progression of warmer air into our region.
As we look ahead to the forecast period, our model blend shows the upper-level trough remaining to our northeast, leaving us under the influence of the upper-level ridge. Veering winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are likely to persist through much of the day today, indicating further WAA. Therefore, temperatures today should be much warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs in the mid- to upper-70s. Overnight lows tonight should be slightly warmer than yesterday night lows. Another day under the ridge Wednesday will result in even warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the low- to mid-80s. Wednesday night into Thursday, the ridge appears to break down somewhat, which will allow a small upper-level disturbance and an associated weak cold front to push through the area. If anything, this disturbance will only be able to muster a few clouds Thursday morning, as there will likely be very little moisture in our area. This will, however, result in cooler temperatures Thursday, with afternoon highs in the upper-70s.
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