Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Showers and thunderstorms. Low: 46-50

 

Wednesday - Scattered showers possible. High: 64-68 

                 

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. 58-62

Thursday - Sunny. High: 82-86

 

 

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Discussion: 

Today remains overcast with scattered showers with afternoon high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s. During the early evening, shower coverage will increase, with thunderstorms also possible. Clouds persist throughout Wednesday with a chance of scattered showers with warmer afternoon high temperatures in the mid- 60s. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, rain will finally exit as a warm front approaches from our west. Clouds will still be around, however, keeping our overnight low only around 60. Early Thursday morning clouds push east along with the warm front, leading to much warmer, near record highs in the mid-80s.

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 20 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main issue with the forecast period is the chance for rain and thunderstorms along with Thursday's high temperature. Using primarily the 06Z NAM, we focused on precipitation amounts and timing.

Currently, central Missouri is seated underneath a deepening upper-level trough.  Satellite and radar shows overcast sky conditions currently over much of the Midwest associated with the deepening trough. Low-level southwesterly flow extends from the Gulf of Mexico to central Missouri, helping to transport moisture into the region.

Both the GFS and NAM suggest scattered showers throughout much of the day; however, we believe the GFS is too wet, and we therefore have opted to rely more on the solution from the NAM. As the deepening trough pushes east, a shortwave develops over western Kansas and pushes toward Missouri, increasing chances for scattered thunderstorms early Tuesday evening. This shortwave continues to move east, taking with it the chances of thunderstorms by early Wednesday morning as predicted CAPE values decrease. Despite this, our chances for rain still remain with us on Wednesday as our low-level southwesterly flow persists, bringing moisture with it from the Gulf. Late Wednesday night and into early Thursday, the upper-level trough continues to push east. Our upper-level flow begins to become more zonal as a high pressure system builds in over much of Missouri. The low-level flow remains southwesterly, but our new influence becomes drier flow stems from much of Western Texas. With a sitting high and true southwesterly flow, cloud cover decreases and our temperatures reach the mid-80s as we remain sunny throughout the day Thursday. 

The next forecasters should focus on a building low pressure system developing over much of the western United States moving east, which will bring with it increased amounts of moisture and colder temperatures.