Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50
Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78
Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56
Wednesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 80-84
Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 54-58
Today we had clear skies and windier conditions due to a high pressure system to our east. The next few days will also be cloudless and we will see a slight warmup from the southerly winds we started to see today. Tuesday and Wednesday will be breezy like today as those southerly winds continue to pick up and bring us warmer than average conditions this week.
We used a general model blend of the NAM and GFS ensembles to create this forecast. The main focus for our time period is breezier conditions on the backside of a surface high that is expected to warm Mid-MO up through the week.
Zonal flow exists across the central CONUS behind the cold front that brought us some rain and below average conditions this weekend. An anticyclone with a central pressure of 1028hPa is situated over southern Illinois today, and Columbia's pressure has been decreasing quite a bit as this system continues to move to our east. As of this morning, a dry cold front existed to our northwest, but it is expected to become quasi-stationary through the next few days due to its very slow movement. Windy conditions at the surface exist across Missouri due to this larger pressure difference across the state as we shift from cooler to warmer surface temperatures.
Models suggest that a ridge will start to form over a majority of the Midwest through the week with no moisture associated with it from the surface up. The aforementioned cold front is not expected to really change our weather pattern at all, at least not for this forecast period. After looking at forecasted Skew-T's from the GFS and NAM for Wednesday (when the front is supposed to approach us), winds start to shift from the south to the west and around the compass to the east by the end of the day. This still signifies veering winds and WAA which verify our warmer forecast. No moisture is expected to be advected into the region during this time. Future forecasters should pay attention to how this front continues to move across the Midwest, but at this point, it does not pose a threat to shaking up the weather in Mid-MO.
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