Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Friday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 58-62
Saturday - Morning fog possible. Becoming mostly clear. High: 80-84
Saturday Night - Clear skies. Low: 58-62
Sunday - Clear Skies. High: 76-80
Monday - Cloudy in the morning. Becoming clear later. High: 68-72
Our skies will stay mostly clear into Friday night. This will give way to possible morning fog on Saturday, which will clear off and give us another warm October day, perfect for the Mizzou football game. Saturday night will bring more clear skies and a comfortable low. Sunday gives us more clear skies and another day of warm temperatures. A cold front will bring us cooler temperatures and clouds Monday morning, which will clear off by the afternoon.
The forecast sounds much like a broken record. The main issue today is yet again, looking at unseasonably warm temperatures that will persist into the weekend. The GFS was mainly used for the forecast period with emphasis on the GEFS and SREF ensembles for temperatures.
Upper level ridging over south-central Canada seen on plots of both 250-hPa height and 500-hPa height will be responsible for upper-level zonal flow for the remainder of the weekend. The result is another quiet forecast period with the storm track staying off well to our north. Also seen in the upper-level flow is the development of a small jet streak to the south and east of Missouri in the 250-hPa wind patterns. This jet streak will keep and help move the remnants of Delta and most of its moisture well to the southeast.
Saturday morning soundings from the GFS continue to show a strong surface inversion, surface saturation, light winds, and clear skies throughout the rest of the column. Expect to see isolated morning fog especially in the low-lying valleys. Fog will burn off quickly after sunrise and give way to another pleasant, above average day Saturday.
By Saturday night, any low-level moisture that does sneak in from Delta will have moved off to the east leaving our skies clear. Another sounding profile shows enough moisture stick around at the surface to support another foggy morning, but the inversion is less steep than Saturday morning. Nevertheless, isolated fog may be possible before sunrise. Sunday will see another day similar to the past several. Temperatures will be slightly cooler out ahead of the next system set to move in Sunday night into Monday morning. At 500 hPa a vort-max propagates out of the LW digging into Upper Midwest from southwestern Canada. Both soundings and GFS MSL maps pin point cold FROPA occurring between 09z and 12z Monday morning. This will bring in a brief period of cloudiness as 700-hPa RH shows the bulk of the moisture staying to the north of Columbia. High pressure sets in quickly behind it clearing out the skies for Monday afternoon. Temperatures will finally be considerably cooler on Monday, only reaching the lower 70s.
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