Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Light rain ending early. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Cloudy. High: 50-54
  

 

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with rain likely. Low: 38-42

Thursday - Cloudy with rain, tapering off in afternoon. High: 46-50

Friday - Sunny. High: 52-56

                   

 

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Discussion: 

Today, we saw temperatures in the mid 30s with overcast skies and drizzle. Conditions will stay very similar tonight. Rain will end early into the night, but cloud cover will stay through the next couple of days. Temperatures will warm about 15-20 degrees F tomorrow. Wednesday night, rain returns and will continue through Thursday afternoon. This rain will provide for a slightly cooler day. By Friday, skies will clear, allowing for more average temperatures.

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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued:  5 PM CDT 27 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated from the 12Z NAM & GFS, supplemented by the SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is the track and intensity of the cutoff low currently detaching itself from a positively tilted trough over the western CONUS.

Satellite imagery indicates a thick cloud deck over a large portion of the central and eastern CONUS. This broadband of clouds has provided us with a lot of moisture and precipitation that we are still seeing right now and will continue to see into the early parts of tonight. At 250mb, there is a prominent positively tilted trough with a large & strong jet streak that extends from the SW to the NE CONUS. The trough is expected to collapse on itself while the low pressure system is still very apparent across the Southern Plains. This vertically-stacked cutoff low is associated with a lot of vorticity.

As the low continues to travel towards us from the west, the counterclockwise winds associated with the cyclone will begin to funnel in southerly winds, thus beginning WAA. Moisture is present in the lower 300mb of the atmosphere with this system, but no forcing is expected to allow for rain to reach the ground until Wednesday night. Instability should stay on the SW portion of the low, so no thunderstorm activity is expected. Sufficient moisture and omega values will continue to drop rain across Mid-MO until midday Thursday, when this system moves eastward. Moisture will go with it and sunny skies across Columbia will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 50s on Friday. 

Future forecasters should monitor the track of the low to our south and how it could influence Hurricane Zeta, as its landfall is scheduled for late Wednesday. Since the low is expected to advect moisture into Mid-MO, it could potentially take moisture and energy from Zeta. It will be interesting to see how those two interact with each other.