Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Cloudy with a mix of freezing rain and snow. Low: 30-34

Tuesday - Cloudy. Morning fog possible. Chance for afternoon rain. High: 40-44

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Cloudy with afternoon showers/storms possible. High: 50-54

Thursday - Cloudy with showers/storms possible. High: 46-50

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

Today, Mid-MO saw the first snow of the season with around an inch of accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Tonight, the wintry mix is likely to continue until we warm up slightly tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, we could see a chance of rain as temperatures warm into the 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will mostly dry until later Wednesday, where showers and even thunderstorms could be possible into Thursday.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 26 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated by a general model blend from the 18Z NAM, GFS, HRRR, and RAP, supplemented by the SREF and GEFS. We tried to look at the latest model runs of many models to see if there is continuity between them during the wet week ahead expected for Mid-MO. The main focus for this forecast period is the continuation of winter weather through the night and a few more rain chances expected in the next couple of days.

Winter weather made its first appearance of the season today. In Columbia, rain transitioned to sleet around 15Z and that transitioned to snow before 18Z today. It recently just transitioned back to sleet. Temperatures have dropped about 10 degrees F since midnight as a dominant high pressure system sitting over the central Great Plains funnels in a cold air mass to the Midwest. Northerly winds have gusted up to 20mph as we sit under a jet streak and to the east of a pronounced negatively tilted trough at 250mb. This is forecast to become a cutoff low within the next 24 hours and will likely impact our weather over the next few days. All of the models we looked at this afternoon had sufficient continuity for this system.

Soundings indicate saturation throughout the lower half of the troposphere all night long with temperatures straddling the freezing line. We are expected to dry up near sunrise tomorrow morning, but the surface temperature and dew point temperature will be so close together that this could create freezing fog/drizzle when the morning low is achieved tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s in the afternoon where saturation could be reached again, creating a chance for rain. This low-level cloud deck is expected to stay around through Tuesday and Wednesday, even when precipitation is not likely to reach the ground. 

A warm front is forecast to approach us on Wednesday, bring a warm & moist air mass with it. This could provide enough lift and instability to create weak thunderstorms. As this cold and warm air mass collide, the biggest threat would be hail forming in the updrafts up the supercooled air within these storms. We also have to monitor the track of the cutoff low from the west and Hurricane Zeta in the Gulf of Mexico. The cutoff low is expected to impact our rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, but future forecasters should watch for the impacts that could be created if/when Zeta and the cutoff low merge. These are both likely to keep moisture in Mid-MO during the middle of this week but probably not by the upcoming weekend.