Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Monday Night: Clearing. Low: 46

 

 

Tuesday: Clear. High: 71

 

 

 Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 50

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 73

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 55

 

 

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Discussion:

With the Low finally off to our East, we will see very calm weather for the first part of this week. High temperatures will be in the low 70's and the lows will be in the high 40's to low 50's. A clear sky will be predominant through Tuesday night, with some increasing clouds through Wednesday into Wednesday night.

 

-Cook

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Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 10/31/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

As this morning's low pressure system moves a ridge builds over the Midwest. We decided to use the GFS 20 as it had a better grasp of the temperatures. Both models were close in visualizing the ridge and the departure of the low. The NAM ran a couple of degrees hotter than the GFS. We also used the NBM to aid in temperature forecasting.

At the 250 MB level, a ridge continues to move through mid-Missouri. This ridge looks to stay over the Midwest till this weekend.

Mid-levels of the atmosphere are showing weak levels of vorticity as the High makes its way through the Midwest. Low levels of moisture follow this ridge as there is lack of vertical velocity signatures.

At the 850 MB level, the beginning of this week will be dryer but the lower level jet (LLJ) will bring moisture from the Gulf as High pressure systems over Alabama and Mississippi move off to the east. The earliest outlooks see a chance for clouds Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Surface temperatures will continue to rise as the week progresses. This is due to the lack of clouds and the change in winds. Winds will begin to switch from the West to the South tonight. Lows will stay in the mid forties throughout this week but will rise to the fifties due to the arrival of the LLJ Wednesday. Dewpoints will stay distanced from our temperatures showing little saturation in the atmosphere. Dewpoints increase during the week and increase coinciding with the arrival of the LLJ.

 

-Herion

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Monday: Cloudy. High: 68

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 45

 

 

 

Tuesday: Clear. High: 73

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 75

 

 

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Discussion:

The string of rainy weather we have been experiencing will be coming to an end today, but it is still not a bad idea to carry with you a raincoat or an umbrella during the morning commute. For the rest of the week expect seasonal weather and sunshine through the week. A hoodie may be all you need to stay warm during the day.

 

-Samson

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Forecasters: Samson, Schneringer, Travis

Date Issued: 10/31/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The precipitation experienced this morning and yesterday will be coming to a close. The area of low pressure over Columbia, MO will be moving east towards the Ohio Valley taking with it the rainy weather.

This movement in the area of low pressure can be viewed at the 250-mb level using both the GFS20 and NAM12 models. The low pressure moves off east and takes with it other weather features. For instance, at the 500-mb level, for the beginning of our forecasting period, there is a significant amount of positive vorticity, but it moves east as well in step with the area of low pressure. It is worth noting that some positive vorticity does show up after this, but it is not near the same amount as at first. Something closely related to vorticity that needs to be brought up is omega. Despite the presence of vorticity, no significant upward vertical motion is seen in the models. For this reason I do not believe that this will do much to change our clear weather forecast.

Our temperatures should be increasing and staying in the 70s during our forecasting period. The wind direction over Columbia should transition from northwesterly to southwesterly on Tuesday starting Tuesday morning. The southwest winds should bring in warm air, raising the temperature. In addition to the winds, there is a good amount of warm air advection occurring over Columbia during our forecasting period. This is seen both at the 700 and 850-mb level. This coupled with the change in wind direction should bring temperatures up into the 70s. 

Speaking of temperatures, our dew point values are far enough from our air temperature values as to not have saturation in the atmosphere during our forecasting period. This is found in using the GFS model Skew-T diagrams. This trend holds true until Wednesday afternoon when there is some upper-level saturation at around the 300-mb level. This leads to the partly cloudy forecast on Wednesday. 

-Samson

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 40

 

 

Saturday:  Increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 65
 

 

Saturday Night: Rainy. Low: 50
 

 

Sunday: Rain in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High: 61
 

Sunday Night: Cloudy. Low: 46

 

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Discussion:

Last clear day before the clouds begin to roll back into the sky. Rain chances starting around late Saturday night into Sunday morning, then reverting back to a cloudy sky Sunday night. Clearing up just before Halloween! Trick-or-Treat!

-Labit

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Forecasters: Allen, Labit, Travis

Date Issued: 10/28/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This forecast used both the GFS and NAM but focused more on the GFS as it seemed to more accurately predict the past temperatures and the location of the low-pressure system currently over the Texas-Oklahoma-Arkansas region. Weather you should watch for this weekend is the possible showers coming Saturday night through Sunday morning.

 

Friday at 250mb, we see the jet stream over the Lower Mississippi River Valley at 21z and we'll see some vorticity moving into southwest MO at about Saturday 09z. Since there won't be any saturation in the upper or lower atmosphere over MO Friday night we will be seeing a clear sky until about Saturday 15z. 

Saturday 15z we start to see an increase of lower and upper level clouds throughout the day due to the closed low moving into southwest MO, bringing wind divergence at 250mb throughout the day until about Sunday 15z. We also have vorticity at 500mb from Saturday 18z to Sunday 12z. Model soundings suggest deep layer saturation moves into Columbia starting at about 02z. This indicates there are chances of showers Saturday night.      

Sunday shows chances of on and off showers throughout the morning and tapering off at about 18z. While the upper and lower levels indicate that saturation stays throughout Sunday and Sunday night, there is no vorticity at 500mb over Columbia after about 20z. Sunday morning at about 12z we will see northeasterly surface winds due to the low-pressure system moving away from Columbia and thus causing Sunday's high temperature to be a few degrees lower than the previous day.   

-Allen

 

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Friday: A few clouds, but mostly sunny. High: 64

 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 40
 

  

 

Saturday: Increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 65
 

 

 

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a few showers. Low: 48
 

Sunday: Cloudy with a few showers, mainly in the morning. High: 59

 

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Discussion:

Dry conditions with comfortable temperatures will be in place Friday and Saturday thanks to a weak easterly wind that should keep highs in the mid 60s. An umbrella would be recommended if you're heading out Sunday morning with some light showers expected. Clouds will stick around all day Sunday and help keep temperatures in the upper 50s.

-McCormack

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Aldrich

Date Issued: 10/28/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

 

For this forecast, the 06Z run of the GFS was utilized due to the model having a better understanding of the current placement of a weak low pressure over west-central Texas. However, both the NAM and GFS were in good agreement on temperatures, so we have greater confidence in our forecasted highs and lows.

At 250mb and 500mb, we are tracking the cutoff low over Texas and an area of high pressure centered over the northeastern Great Lakes region allowing for a weak, easterly wind. This will allow for dry air to be firmly ingrained throughout the day with little to no cloud cover, expected which will help temperatures to gradually increase into the mid 60s this afternoon. With high pressure still being our dominant force off to our northeast, sky conditions will continue to remain clear and temperatures will be able to fall into the low 40s. 

 

Mid-level altostratus clouds will begin to slowly build in Saturday as the cutoff low moves off to the east towards the Texarkana region. Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the day, yet temperatures will be in the mid 60s again due to the weak, southwesterly flow with the approaching occluded low. As we head into Saturday night, the low pressure will become vertically stacked and be just south of our area. The clouds associated with the low will continue to blanket our area and keep overnight low temperatures slightly above average in the upper 40s (avg. low 41). A few showers are possible just before sunrise on Sunday, with some low-level moisture and lift available, yet instability continues to look meager heading into the day on Sunday as well. Persistant stratiform clouds will be overhead most of Sunday with the center of the low being directly over central Missouri and lead to the possibility of showers throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, due to the greater amounts of moisture being off to our south and east, rain totals should be light with 0.05" to 0.15" expected here in Columbia. Higher rainfall amounts will be likely to our southeast, but if the center of the low moves further west than expected, those higher totals could move closer to our area. With cloud cover overhead and a slight northeasterly breeze, high temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 50s and keep us slightly below average (avg. high 61).

As this weakening cyclone moves away from our region, expect temperatures to gradually warm up above average as we head into next week. 

- McCormack, Peine, Aldrich

 

 

 

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Thursday Night: Few clouds. Low: 39

 

 

 

Friday: Few clouds. High: 62
 

  

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 40
 

 

 

Saturday: AM fog and partly cloudy during the day. High:62
 

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 48

 

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Discussion:

Persistence is the name of the forecast this week as low temperatures hover around 40 degrees and high temperatures sit near 60 degrees. Leave a few minutes early if you're headed anywhere Saturday morning as fog is expected in the area.

 

-Chirpich

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Forecasters: Chirpich, Rangel, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 10/27/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

For this forecast, the 12Z run of the NAM was chosen as it had more of a consensus within its temperature spread, while GFS had more outliers that did not fit the curve. The main focus of this forecast period is the fog expected Saturday morning.

A high pressure system currently situated over Mid-Missouri will continue the calm weather pattern into the end of the week. However, a zonal flow starts to shift more meridional towards the end of the weekend, signaling a break in the fair weather. This shift is due to a low pressure system currently situated near Texas that moves into Mid-Missouri early Sunday morning. There is another low-pressure system near Nebraska that moves closer to Missouri, yet will not affect our CWA due to how weak it is. The southern low-pressure system is more significant, as it extends all the way up to 250mb and has stronger surface winds associated with it.

 

As the southern low-pressure system moves into Mid-Missouri, its counter-clockwise flow causes a southeasterly wind shift in Missouri, bringing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This begins Saturday morning, and this moisture advection, along with a radiation inversion and a saturated temperature profile near the surface at 13Z Saturday morning, indicates the likelihood of fog.

The moisture builds Saturday night into Sunday as 12Z soundings display deep moisture from 650mb to 300mb, along with a low cloud deck near 850mb. Simultaneously, surface dewpoints and vorticity at 500mb both increase, setting the CWA up for showers on Sunday. Future forecasters should look at Sunday in particular as a chance for rain for Mid-Missouri.

-Chirpich

 

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High:61

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low:39
 

  

 

Friday: Sunny. High:64
 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low:43

Saturday: Overcast. High: 64

 

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Discussion:

Intermittent periods of clouds and sun for the next few days is expected in the vicinity of a low pressure system, which should usher in rain late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Stable highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s should make for some very typical fall-like weather.

 

-Thomas

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Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, Sallot

Date Issued: 10/27/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

    Current surface observations show an easterly wind component while the upper levels show a more southerly component which should bring moisture into the CWA. Shortwave IR imaging for Thursday night shows a lot of convective cloud cover surrounding a cutoff low in southern Colorado extending to Missouri’s western border. The main concern of this forecast will be increasing levels of moisture enhancing cloud cover throughout the forecast period.

    Using temperature verification data, we decided to use GFS model runs for our analysis due to its relatively accurate temperature spread for Columbia. Starting at 250mb, there is a strong cutoff low that progresses in a U-shaped path from Colorado to southern Missouri by 00Z Sunday. There is a strong jet streak extending from Texas into southwestern Missouri. This jet streak will deamplify the trough associated with the cutoff low previously mentioned. Elevated divergence will surround Columbia Saturday 9Z into Sunday. There is a shift in winds over central Missouri with an east component to the north and a west component to the south through Saturday due to the weakening jet stream.

    Winds at the 500mb level are out of the west until Saturday 03Z where they switch to a more southwesterly component due to the passing cutoff low. A band of high vorticity will pass through the CWA from the cutoff low on Saturday 15-21Z. Future forecasters should note the vorticity values in Missouri progressing into Sunday.

    At 700mb, winds flow from the southwest until 15Z Thursday where they shift to a more southerly through 09Z Friday, where they return to a southwesterly component. There is a slight amount of upward vertical velocity over Columbia periodically throughout the forecast period. This can provide some amount of lift to support possible storms for Sunday.

    At 850mb, winds are out of the southeast until a southerly switch occurs at Friday 12Z. They then progress back to a southwesterly flow into Saturday. The cutoff low tilts southwest as we progress downward through the madatory levels. Dewpoints within the forecast period are too low to support significant levels of moisture in the CWA.

    At the surface, packed solenoids on the west border of Missouri support WAA until Friday 06Z. Winds are out of the west throughout the forecast period. Temperatures also warm as through the forcast period as well.

    The Thursday 06Z sounding supports a thick cloud deck on Saturday 12-18Z. There is a significant dry layer throughout the forecast period which will inhibit any potential precipitation.

    Future forecasters should note enhanced vertical velocity and vorticty associated with the cutoff low. These can provide the lift necessary for storms for Sunday and Monday.

-Sausen

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 41

 

 

 

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 58
 

  

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 41
 

 

 

Friday: Clearing up into the Afternoon. High: 61

Friday Night: Clear. High: 43

 

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Discussion:

After a rainy couple of days a high pressure system has settled into the area and will give us some nice fall days. High temperatures will range from the mid 50’s to low 60’s and low temperatures will be in the 40’s. There will be lots of clouds on Thursday but fewer clouds on Friday, none of which will bear any precipitation.

 

-Smith

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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 10/26/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

There were few discernable differences between the GFS and NAM so a combination has been used for this forecast.


There is a strong low pressure system that we can see at all levels of the atmosphere located over the TX/OK panhandle that will eventually bring changes over this weekend. For now, this LPS split the jet stream with the northerly component retreating into Canada and the southerly component south of MO will dissipate in the next 72 hours. Any vorticity we see will show up on Saturday as the LPS moves to our southwest and then curls up into mid MO on Sat. Soundings show mild saturation in the upper levels on Thursday so a fair amount of clouds is expected. Clouds will start to dissipate going into Friday day and evening.


On both the 700 and 850 RH maps, moisture stays out of the region until the LPS brings in some moisture on Sat. afternoon. With the exiting trough goes the recent cold air advection and in the coming days there will be sporadic warm air advection due to our south easterly winds until the LPS comes in on Sat. and starts to affect things. Soundings show mild saturation in the mid levels on Thursday so a fair amount of clouds is expected. Clouds will start to dissipate going into Friday day and evening.


Our surface maps show the primary reason for our nice fall weather and that is the dominating high pressure system over the Great Lakes. Our high temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s whereas our lows will be in the 40’s. This system will dominate the weather pattern as it moves eastward and is replaced by the aforementioned LPS on Sat. Our winds will remain from the SE-E until the LPS comes in and shifts our winds to more NE flow. Looking at our dew points we can see that there is very little moisture in the area until the LPS shows up Sat. afternoon.


-Cochran, Jones, Smith

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 41

Thursday: Partly Sunny. High: 61

Thursday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 41 

Friday: Clear. High: 61

 

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Discussion:

Dry conditions move in as high pressure builds into the area bringing Temperatures to near seasonal averages. There will be an increase in cloud cover Thursday and Thursday night but nothing in the way of precipitation making for a very fall-like end of the week.

 

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw, Travis

Date Issued: 10/26/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Things begin to dry out as the low pressure that brought widespread rainfall begins to pull to the northeast taking the cloud cover with it. Overall, temperatures should remain seasonal for the remainder of the week as a surface high makes its way into the Midwest. With the high placement over the great lakes, winds will remain mostly out of the south and east until Friday afternoon when they will turn from a more easterly direction. The GFS and NAM had good agreement in how the remainder of the week will play out so they have both been considered in this forecast.

In the upper levels, the low pressure continues to move northeast and weaken as it gets absorbed into the polar jet. Meanwhile, sharp trough is moving onshore and is expected to extend south making it to the desert southwest. As it continues east, the trough continues to narrow eventually becoming cut off over the southern plains by Friday morning. We enter a period of zonal flow around the same time which allows the low to slowly meander to the east only making it to  Texas by the end of the forecast period. Weak circulation is apparent on both models associated with the low off to our west however the more organized area remains out of our region. 

In the mid levels, a more intense area of CAA is over the region and expected to be out of the region by this evening. We do see a brief period of WAA Thursday afternoon but nothing especially impactful. The low pressure mentioned in the upper levels was much more apparent across the southern plains, however due to its distance from the area any notable moisture is expected to stay to our west. At 850 mb an area of high pressure not seen in higher levels begins to develop across the central plains and slowly pushes it way east.

The low-level high pressure continues to develop into the region with it being directly overhead Thursday morning. As it continues to slide east, it will gradually slow down before stalling over the great lakes where it will continue to intensify. This causes winds to switch from a more southeasterly direction through Thursday afternoon. Wind will then switch from due east Friday afternoon, this is due to the deepening low pressure that is gradually making its way east.

- Russell