Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Friday: A few clouds, but mostly sunny. High: 64

 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 40
 

  

 

Saturday: Increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 65
 

 

 

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a few showers. Low: 48
 

Sunday: Cloudy with a few showers, mainly in the morning. High: 59

 

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Discussion:

Dry conditions with comfortable temperatures will be in place Friday and Saturday thanks to a weak easterly wind that should keep highs in the mid 60s. An umbrella would be recommended if you're heading out Sunday morning with some light showers expected. Clouds will stick around all day Sunday and help keep temperatures in the upper 50s.

-McCormack

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Aldrich

Date Issued: 10/28/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

 

For this forecast, the 06Z run of the GFS was utilized due to the model having a better understanding of the current placement of a weak low pressure over west-central Texas. However, both the NAM and GFS were in good agreement on temperatures, so we have greater confidence in our forecasted highs and lows.

At 250mb and 500mb, we are tracking the cutoff low over Texas and an area of high pressure centered over the northeastern Great Lakes region allowing for a weak, easterly wind. This will allow for dry air to be firmly ingrained throughout the day with little to no cloud cover, expected which will help temperatures to gradually increase into the mid 60s this afternoon. With high pressure still being our dominant force off to our northeast, sky conditions will continue to remain clear and temperatures will be able to fall into the low 40s. 

 

Mid-level altostratus clouds will begin to slowly build in Saturday as the cutoff low moves off to the east towards the Texarkana region. Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the day, yet temperatures will be in the mid 60s again due to the weak, southwesterly flow with the approaching occluded low. As we head into Saturday night, the low pressure will become vertically stacked and be just south of our area. The clouds associated with the low will continue to blanket our area and keep overnight low temperatures slightly above average in the upper 40s (avg. low 41). A few showers are possible just before sunrise on Sunday, with some low-level moisture and lift available, yet instability continues to look meager heading into the day on Sunday as well. Persistant stratiform clouds will be overhead most of Sunday with the center of the low being directly over central Missouri and lead to the possibility of showers throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, due to the greater amounts of moisture being off to our south and east, rain totals should be light with 0.05" to 0.15" expected here in Columbia. Higher rainfall amounts will be likely to our southeast, but if the center of the low moves further west than expected, those higher totals could move closer to our area. With cloud cover overhead and a slight northeasterly breeze, high temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 50s and keep us slightly below average (avg. high 61).

As this weakening cyclone moves away from our region, expect temperatures to gradually warm up above average as we head into next week. 

- McCormack, Peine, Aldrich