Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

     

Friday: Increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 70

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41
 

  Saturday: Partly Cloudy in the morning, increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 66

 
              

Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low:44

  

    

Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High: 65

 

 

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Discussion: 

Increasing clouds with windy conditions will be the story for our Friday with a high temperature nearing 70. A jacket is not only recommended for today but the rest of the weekend too as clouds will continue to be around Saturday with temperatures in the mid-60s and Sunday will feature a cool, northerly wind with a high near 65.

-McCormack, Peine

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Aldrich

Date Issued: 10/14/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A blend of both the 06Z NAM and 06Z GFS models were utilized for this forecast. There was a large disagreement in temperatures between the two models for both highs and lows, and with no clear reason for the discrepancy, a mixture between the NAM and GFS were used for forecasting temperatures and sky conditions during our forecast period.

 

From 250mb down to the surface, we are tracking a deep closed low-pressure system located north of the Great Lakes that will bring mixing into the region today. High pressure is dominate over the southern CONUS which sandwiches our area in between the two systems. The combination of a tighter surface pressure gradient and mixing will help produce gusty winds over 25 mph out of the southwest, particularly in the afternoon hours. The southwest winds will support low-level warm air advection with slightly above average temperatures (avg. high 70) that will be ahead of an approaching weak cold front that is currently over South Dakota. Ahead of the cold front, cloud cover is shown on both the NAM and GFS soundings at 700mb, yet the limited moisture at the surface will keep us dry. 

By tonight, the cold front will be located southeast of the region with light, northerly winds brought behind it. Calm surface winds and limited cloud cover will allow temperatures to fall into the low 40s. 

For Saturday, the high pressure located to our south will move over our area, reducing winds to less than 10 mph out of the southwest. Temperatures will be slightly below average behind Friday night's front with increasing cloud cover expected Saturday afternoon due to another weak cold front moving through the region Saturday night. Again, precipitation is not expected as Friday's cold front will push out the little amounts of moisture we have at 700mb. Behind the front Saturday night, a northwesterly flow will allow for a similar temperature forecast for Sunday with a high expected to be in the mid-60s. The trough associated with the low pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to dig further south and bring a northwesterly flow.

Future forecast shifts should monitor how deep this mid-level trough gets as there is a growing potential of widespread frost for our region early next week.