Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Monday: Cloudy. High: 68

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 45

 

 

 

Tuesday: Clear. High: 73

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 75

 

 

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Discussion:

The string of rainy weather we have been experiencing will be coming to an end today, but it is still not a bad idea to carry with you a raincoat or an umbrella during the morning commute. For the rest of the week expect seasonal weather and sunshine through the week. A hoodie may be all you need to stay warm during the day.

 

-Samson

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Forecasters: Samson, Schneringer, Travis

Date Issued: 10/31/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The precipitation experienced this morning and yesterday will be coming to a close. The area of low pressure over Columbia, MO will be moving east towards the Ohio Valley taking with it the rainy weather.

This movement in the area of low pressure can be viewed at the 250-mb level using both the GFS20 and NAM12 models. The low pressure moves off east and takes with it other weather features. For instance, at the 500-mb level, for the beginning of our forecasting period, there is a significant amount of positive vorticity, but it moves east as well in step with the area of low pressure. It is worth noting that some positive vorticity does show up after this, but it is not near the same amount as at first. Something closely related to vorticity that needs to be brought up is omega. Despite the presence of vorticity, no significant upward vertical motion is seen in the models. For this reason I do not believe that this will do much to change our clear weather forecast.

Our temperatures should be increasing and staying in the 70s during our forecasting period. The wind direction over Columbia should transition from northwesterly to southwesterly on Tuesday starting Tuesday morning. The southwest winds should bring in warm air, raising the temperature. In addition to the winds, there is a good amount of warm air advection occurring over Columbia during our forecasting period. This is seen both at the 700 and 850-mb level. This coupled with the change in wind direction should bring temperatures up into the 70s. 

Speaking of temperatures, our dew point values are far enough from our air temperature values as to not have saturation in the atmosphere during our forecasting period. This is found in using the GFS model Skew-T diagrams. This trend holds true until Wednesday afternoon when there is some upper-level saturation at around the 300-mb level. This leads to the partly cloudy forecast on Wednesday. 

-Samson