Tuesday, October 11, 2022

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 





Tuesday Night:
 Partly Cloudy. Low: 60

 
 

Wednesday: 
Rain with clearing in the afternoon. High: 69

 
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 45
 


Thursday: Sunny. High: 64
 
 

 Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 39

 
 

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Discussion: 

The rain we have been waiting for is finally on the way! A cold front will pass through Wednesday morning. After the front passes through, expect fair weather and very few clouds for the rest of the week. 

- Meier
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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Macko

Date Issued: 10/11/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:
We decided to use both the GFS20 and NAM12 models. The reason we are using both of these models is because they agree on the timing and location of the frontal passage, areas of moving air, and mid to low-level moisture. For soundings, we tended to use the GFS over the NAM even though they mostly agreed. The reason the GFS was used was because the NAM was predicting possible severe convection while the GFS was not. The main area of concern we were observing was the deep trough that is currently sitting over the Dakotas.

At the 250mb level, a deep trough off to the west was very visible. The trough is the product of a low pressure system in Manitoba, Canada. At around 12Z Wednesday, the trough will be right over us bringing upper-level divergence over our location. The jet stream will dip into our area at 00Z Thursday bringing lots of divergence which follows the jetstreaks. This will bring us cold and dry air throughout the rest of the week. 

At the 500mb level, both models agree that the mid-level trough will dip down into the upper midwest  and bring plenty of vorticity into the area around Wednesday at 12Z. This corresponds to the trough at the 250mb level and the divergence the trough brings with it. Thursday at 3Z the vorticity comes back into the forecast area. After the vorticity comes through, it will clear out for good for the rest of the forecast period.

At the 700mb level, there is partial drying of the air overnight Tuesday. This does not last very long as the area begins to saturate Wednesday morning. There will be an ample amount of Omega during the frontal passage which will provide lift. While convection is possible, severe convection is not expected. After the front passes, the area will dry up again Wednesday afternoon. However, during Wednesday night the area saturates in partly cloudy skies are expected. The area dries out Thursday and no clouds will be expected.

At the 850mb level, the Low-level jet(LLJ) is very strong over the CWA tonight into tomorrow morning. It is apparent that a cold front passes through our area sometime between 15Z and 18Z Wednesday. Before the front passes through, there will be sufficient moisture over our area. The moisture will stay in our area until the frontal passage occurs. After the front passes through the LLJ leaves and dies out. Also, the low-level moisture moves away from our area with the cold front. Our area will remain dry for the rest of the week after the cold front passes through.

The main cause for concern is the cold front that will pass through our area sometime from 15Z-18Z Wednesday. This will bring rain to our area. We forecasted .1"-.2" inches of rain. However, after the front passes, the forecast is calm with very few clouds expected.

-Meier

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