Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High:61
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low:39
Friday: Sunny. High:64
Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low:43
Saturday: Overcast. High: 64
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Discussion:
Intermittent periods of clouds and sun for the next few days is expected in the vicinity of a low pressure system, which should usher in rain late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Stable highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s should make for some very typical fall-like weather.Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, Sallot
Date Issued: 10/27/2022 9:00 AM CDT
Current surface observations show an easterly wind component while the upper levels show a more southerly component which should bring moisture into the CWA. Shortwave IR imaging for Thursday night shows a lot of convective cloud cover surrounding a cutoff low in southern Colorado extending to Missouri’s western border. The main concern of this forecast will be increasing levels of moisture enhancing cloud cover throughout the forecast period.
Using temperature verification data, we decided to use GFS model runs for our analysis due to its relatively accurate temperature spread for Columbia. Starting at 250mb, there is a strong cutoff low that progresses in a U-shaped path from Colorado to southern Missouri by 00Z Sunday. There is a strong jet streak extending from Texas into southwestern Missouri. This jet streak will deamplify the trough associated with the cutoff low previously mentioned. Elevated divergence will surround Columbia Saturday 9Z into Sunday. There is a shift in winds over central Missouri with an east component to the north and a west component to the south through Saturday due to the weakening jet stream.
Winds at the 500mb level are out of the west until Saturday 03Z where they switch to a more southwesterly component due to the passing cutoff low. A band of high vorticity will pass through the CWA from the cutoff low on Saturday 15-21Z. Future forecasters should note the vorticity values in Missouri progressing into Sunday.
At 700mb, winds flow from the southwest until 15Z Thursday where they shift to a more southerly through 09Z Friday, where they return to a southwesterly component. There is a slight amount of upward vertical velocity over Columbia periodically throughout the forecast period. This can provide some amount of lift to support possible storms for Sunday.
At 850mb, winds are out of the southeast until a southerly switch occurs at Friday 12Z. They then progress back to a southwesterly flow into Saturday. The cutoff low tilts southwest as we progress downward through the madatory levels. Dewpoints within the forecast period are too low to support significant levels of moisture in the CWA.
At the surface, packed solenoids on the west border of Missouri support WAA until Friday 06Z. Winds are out of the west throughout the forecast period. Temperatures also warm as through the forcast period as well.
The Thursday 06Z sounding supports a thick cloud deck on Saturday 12-18Z. There is a significant dry layer throughout the forecast period which will inhibit any potential precipitation.
Future forecasters should note enhanced vertical velocity and vorticty associated with the cutoff low. These can provide the lift necessary for storms for Sunday and Monday.
-Sausen
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