Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night: Few clouds. Low: 45
Thursday: Sunny. High:64
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 39
Friday: Sunny. High: 71
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Discussion:
With the rain gone this morning is back to sunshine, few clouds, and moderate temperatures, highs in the upper 60’s, for the next couple days. It will be quite breezy Thursday but with the sun out you should enjoy it while you still can.
Forecasters: Cochran, Jones,Smith
Date Issued: 10/12/2022 5:00 PM CDT
The main feature in the upper level maps is the dominating low pressure system residing just north of the Great Lakes region in Canada. With it is a strong presence of the jet stream going right over central Missouri during the next few days. Looking down in the 500 map, it shows several bands of vorticity entering and exiting the region, the most significant being in the area late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as it follows the predominant low over Canada.
There was plenty of moisture in the area with rain showers this morning but that moisture will exit the region by Wednesday evening as it follows the LPS over Canada and the CWA will not see moisture return in any strength for the next fews days. Both the 700 and 850 RH maps share this story.
This morning's rain was brought by a prominent cold front that has moved out of the area. In the coming days 2 weaker warm fronts will move into the area bringing wind shifts and warmer temperatures. Thursday evening at 00Z will mark a wind shift from the WNW to the WSW suggesting a weak warm front bringing the highs into the mid 60’s and another shift on Friday afternoon starting at 18Z will bring our winds from the W to the SSW suggesting yet again another weak warm front that will push temperatures into the low 70’s. Looking out beyond our timeframe is the possibility of a cold front bringing moisture and cooler temperatures for the beginning of next week.
Expect slightly windy conditions at the SFC Thursday as the GFS soundings show winds blowing from the WSW at 10 knots. Friday clouds will be seen forming at the mid-levels during the afternoon into Friday evening due to near saturation around 500mb throughout the day.
The GFS was the predominant model being used because of its better grasp on the moisture throughout the country which gave it the slight edge over the NAM which was otherwise similar.
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