Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

  

Monday Night: Cloudy. Rainy. Low: 52
 
 

 

Tuesday: Rain. High: 53

 

 

Tuesday Night: Rain, transitioning into overcast. Low: 41

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60

 

 

 Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 41

 

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Discussion:

Don't forget your umbrella for tomorrow. Rain will continue tonight into late Tuesday night. Tuesday's high temperature will occur early in the morning meaning it will be cooler into the afternoon.

- Herion

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Forecasters: Cook, Herion, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 10/24/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The Midwest is currently under the influence of a major upper level trough. This trough is accompanied by a surface low along the US-Canada border. The GFS shows the predominant surface low bringing a strong cold front into our CWA within the next few hours. This will bring significantly cooler temperatures to our area over the next couple days.

This low is also causing moisture to be transported up through the Midwest through means of a low level jet, which can be seen on the 850mb model. This low will move northeast into Canada and allow a smaller and shorter lived low to form over the OK/AR border and move into our region Tuesday morning. The presence of moisture in the atmosphere ahead of the strong cold front from the former low suggests rain for Monday afternoon throughout Tuesday, where the low will continue to allow for rain into Tuesday evening.

The chance for rain is supported by GFS upper air models. The GFS 500mb vorticity models showing significant signatures through Tuesday evening. The 700mb vertical velocity shows two rounds of motion; one early Monday evening, and another prolonged round of vertical velocity movement throughout all of Tuesday, until the passage of the smaller low Tuesday night. The precipitation amounts are modeled to be anywhere from 2-2.5 inches of total rainfall through Tuesday night. once the low moves out of the region, a high pressure system will bring drier air and a clear sky into our region for all of Wednesday into Wednesday night. 

Looking further, there appears to be a low that is going to be pushing into the region Friday, and should continue to be monitored by future forecasting shifts.

-Cook